Good early Sunday morning, everyone. Our Saturday turned out to be fairly okay in terms of our weather setup. After our cold start with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s, the dry air and the south wind worked together with mostly sunny skies to send highs back into the upper 60s and near 70° across the area. Looking at the surface map below, the incoming warm front will make sure the south wind stays in action for today. While that part of our next storm system will make sure we’ll be warm for our Palm Sunday, we’ll also keep an eye on that cold front stretching from Nebraska back into Nevada.
With the south wind in place to start the morning out, temperatures won’t be heading back into the deep freeze. It will be chilly, though, with most of us starting out in the lower to middle 50s across much of the area. Despite us bouncing back between partly sunny and mostly cloudy skies during the day, the south wind ahead of the cold front will be sustained between 15 and 25 mph (gusts near 35 mph at times). That will easily send us back into the middle to upper 70s across the area for this afternoon.
While the day will be dry, more moisture at the surface and better dynamic support upstairs will head our way as we get into this evening. After 7 or 8 o’clock, we’ll be keeping an eye on the radar for scattered showers and t-storms to develop ahead of the cold front. Given the setup coming in, any storms that can form on their own ahead of the cold front could be capable of bringing some high wind gusts and some quarter-size hail.
As more dynamic support comes in late tonight and into Monday morning, that will allow for additional rain and t-storms to develop and pass through parts of the area. These rain chances will eventually force temperatures back into the lower 50s for Monday morning.
With our t-storm chances for this evening and heading into early Monday morning, we’ll need to keep an eye on them. While much of the area is included in a minimal or marginal threat for severe weather, a low risk does clip areas from Stockton Lake and our far eastern counties. While the greater severe threat look to stay from Springfield through central/southern Missouri and into the St. Louis area, we’ll watch our t-storms for the chance to produce some high wind gusts, some hail and pockets of heavy rain.
With our rain chances primarily coming to an end by the end of Monday morning, we could see potential rain amounts from a quarter of an inch on the low end to about an inch and a half for areas that see more in the way of moderate to heavy rain.
As we’ll gradually dry out during the day, we’ll see mild temperatures under mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower to middle 60s for Monday afternoon.
This isn’t the only system we’re watching for the coming week, though. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll watch for another wave upstairs and another system at the surface come our way for Tuesday (especially Tuesday afternoon and evening) and into Wednesday morning. Some of these t-storms could be strong to severe.
Once that system moves on, we’ll have partly sunny skies and dry weather for our Thursday. Then, another system will come our way for the upcoming Easter Holiday weekend. The latest indications show that we’ll have rain and t-storm chances return for Good Friday and Saturday. Since some of those could be strong, we’ll keep an eye on that system as well.
Even with these rain chances coming and going, we’ll stay mainly mild through this week with upper 70s for Tuesday and lower to middle 60s Wednesday through Friday. We’ll trend back into the lower 70s for Saturday before temperatures turn a little cooler for Easter Sunday. Doug’s long range forecast through the rest of the month and through the middle of May is down below. Have a great Sunday!
Nick
April 17th-23rd: Starting with strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Cooling down a little bit on Monday. Slowly warming back up through the week with thunderstorm chances returning on Thursday and Friday. Those also could be strong to severe.
April 24th-30th: Our temperatures look mainly mild for this week. We’ll watch for t-storm chances Sunday, slight t-storm chances Wednesday, slight t-storm chances Thursday and t-storm chances Friday.
May 1st-7th: A warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, most likely severe. Thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, also most likely severe.
May 15th-21st: Cooler start to the week with thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. We warm up toward the weekend with Saturday thunderstorms, most likely severe.