Forecast: Kansas farmers will harvest bountiful wheat crop

MANHATTAN, Kan. (AP) – Kansas farmers are expected to harvest a bountiful winter wheat crop this season, according to a government forecast released Wednesday.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated that the Kansas wheat crop will come in at 331 million bushels, up 18% from last year’s crop. It forecast average yields in the state of 48 bushels per acre, an increase of 3 bushels from last year.

The agency also estimated that 6.9 million acres will be harvested in Kansas. That is 650,000 more acres of wheat than a year ago. Its projections are based on May 1 crop conditions.

Latest updated blog – Warming trend continues Thursday – Nick

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Thankfully, our warming trend continued today. After seeing chilly temperatures for Monday and yesterday, we saw highs top back out in the middle 60s this afternoon. We had Joplin Regional top out at 64° this afternoon after a chilly start of 50° this morning.

Looking at our weather setup, the surface setup doesn’t have anything that jumps out at us in our area. Our last front is still slowly sinking south across the Gulf Coast and into the Florida Peninsula. Behind it, we have an area of high pressure located over the Illinois/Wisconsin line. As that shifts off to the east and southeast, that will allow the easterly breeze that we had today to shift back out of the southeast for tomorrow.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn upper-level low is finally clearing out. That will leave us with a dry Thursday to enjoy while we keep our eyes on what’s going on out to the west. We have one upper-level low developing off the California Coast and another low developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Both of these will come together to give us plenty of t-storm chances in the days ahead of us.

For the rest of the night, though, we’ll enjoy a quiet night with a light easterly breeze. This setup means we’ll have to turn cool once again as lows Thursday morning drop back into the lower to middle 40s.

Once we get past our cool Thursday morning, temperatures will warm quickly with a southeast breeze and partly to mostly sunny skies in place. After we see temperatures climb into the lower 60s by noon, we’ll see highs across the area top out mainly in the upper 60s.

While we can enjoy a mild and dry Thursday, things will start to pick up once again as we work into Friday. In fact, an upper-level wave and a returning frontal system that will develop out west will start to bring in a chance for some weakening showers and t-storms Friday morning. Temperatures Friday morning will start a bit on the cool side in the upper 40s.

With some dry time late in the morning and early in the afternoon, we’ll see temperatures warm back up into the lower 70s with a southeast breeze still in place. Once we get into the afternoon, though, we’ll watch for additional t-storms to develop. While some could be a bit on the strong side, we aren’t expecting any severe weather for Friday.

That story changes once we go through the rest of the weekend and into next week. With a dominant upper-level low out across California sending more waves our way, we’ll watch for scattered t-storms on Saturday and Sunday. These waves of t-storm chances could be strong to severe. We’ll be watching those closely. At least we’ll have warm temperatures back in play with highs both days in the middle 70s.

For next week, that upper-level low starts to shift across northern Arizona and the south-central Rockies. With that resulting in a westerly and southwesterly flow aloft and more waves of energy coming our way, we’ll hold onto t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday. Despite that, we’ll stay warm with highs in the middle to upper 70s for both days.

By Wednesday, note the positioning of the upper-level low across Nebraska and northern Kansas. With the jet stream plotted, note how that main wave is negatively tilted (tilted from the northwest to the southeast). This is a familiar setup we’ve seen before with some severe weather setups. This will certainly keep t-storms in the forecast and a chance for severe on Wednesday as highs push back near 80° across the area.

Beyond next Wednesday, it will stay active for the rest of next week and pretty much through Memorial Day. You can see Doug’s latest system breakdown, how we’ll have a chance for t-storms and severe weather from Saturday through all of next week. We’ll watch for a low to moderate severe threat on the 23rd & 24th, a low threat on the 27th & 28th and a chance for severe weather on Sunday and Memorial Day.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!

Nick

 

May 20th-May 22nd: We’ll stay warm for the rest of the week while we hold on to t-storm chances and severe weather chances Thursday through Saturday.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog – Starting a mild trend Wednesday – Nick

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. The calendar says it’s the middle of May, but it didn’t feel like it at all today. Our chilly trend continued once again after we saw highs back in the middle to upper 50s on Monday. After a cool start near 43°, we saw Joplin Regional hit a high of 59° this afternoon. To put that in perspective, our high today is 4° warmer than our normal low of 55°. While we were definitely below our average high of 77° today, we’ll start heading back that way as the days roll on.

Looking at our weather setup, we just have an area of high pressure over northern Indiana and southern Michigan keeping our breeze out of the northeast as we roll into the late night hours. Our last cold front has stalled out along the Gulf Coast. That’s where the better chances for t-storms will stay for the next few days.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn upper-level low has almost checked out. After it finishes passing to our north by tomorrow morning, we’ll keep dry for the afternoon ahead of us and Thursday before more activity out west starts to roll in.

For the overnight hours and Wednesday morning, the departing upper-level low could bring a few showers our way. Otherwise, we’ll all start cool with lows around 47° with a northeast breeze at 5-10 mph under mostly cloudy skies.

As the upper-level low clears out, it will take any slight rain chances out of the picture by lunchtime and allow partly sunny skies to return for Wednesday afternoon. Once we start the afternoon out with temperatures around 58° by lunchtime, we’ll have highs turn mild again as we’ll top out at 63°. That’s still cooler than normal, but it’s a step in the right direction.

With partly cloudy skies and a light northeast breeze in place for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, we’ll have another cool start with lows back in the middle 40s.

Thankfully, we’ll have a dry Thursday from start to finish under partly sunny skies. We’ll see highs back in the middle 60s for Thursday afternoon as a southeasterly breeze starts to return.

That returning southeasterly breeze will continue our warming trend as we head into the weekend. Even with a returning frontal system at the surface and an upper-level wave along the jet bringing a few showers our way for Friday, we’ll have highs back near 70° for the afternoon.

With the frontal system still in place and more upper-level energy coming from a new upper-level low digging across the western United States, we’ll watch for scattered t-storms returning during the afternoon and into Saturday evening. We’ll keep an eye on those t-storms as they could be strong to severe. Even with returning t-storm chances, we’ll head back into the middle 70s for Saturday afternoon.

We don’t see much change in the setup for Sunday. With partly sunny skies, highs in the upper 70s and the same systems in play, we’ll watch for scattered t-storms once again for Sunday afternoon and evening. Since some of those could be strong to severe, we’ll keep an eye on those t-storm chances as well.

After another shot for scattered t-storms with mostly cloudy skies on Monday, we’ll back things down to a few isolated t-storms on Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s. Look at the positioning of the upper-level low on Tuesday, though.

With the upper-low wanting to shift to our northwest by Tuesday with a projected negative tilt, that could bring in another favorable chance for some strong to severe t-storms by next Wednesday. If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

 

May 19th-May 22nd: We’ll keep an eye on severe threats for Wednesday through Friday before we keep quiet for Saturday.  Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog – Staying chilly with rain chances Tuesday – Nick

Good late Monday evening, everyone. Sure enough, we stayed well below normal with our temperatures as we kicked off a new work/school week today. After we started with early AM highs in the lower to middle 70s, we went from 61° at 6 AM to afternoon temperatures in the 50s for the rest of our Sunday. The cloud cover and rain chances we had for today didn’t give temperatures much wiggle room to warm up. After our cool start in the upper 40s, we did eventually see highs in the upper 50s with some returning sun late in the day.

Looking at our weather setup, our rain chances and cloud cover for today weren’t caused by any features at the surface. While an area of high pressure to our north is keeping our wind out of the northeast for the rest of the night and into Tuesday morning, the same cold front that passed through on Sunday is well to the south keeping any good t-storm chances across parts of Texas and Louisiana.

Our weather for the next few days is being driven by one particular system at the jet stream level. Upstairs, we continue to keep an eye on the stubborn upper-level low spinning over Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. Even though it’s a good distance away from the region, it sent a shortwave our way to keep cloud cover and rain chances around for this morning and much of the afternoon. In fact, another shortwave rotating around the low is ready to push more moisture in the form of continued cloud cover and rain chances our way from the west.

While the area will stay dry overnight, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies. That will help temperatures from dropping off too much during the night. However, it will still be a cool start as lows will drop back into the middle 40s by sunrise.

While the Future Track above showed any rain chances overnight staying away, we’ll see those rain chances return as our AM drive to work and school gets underway. Once the rain chances return, we’ll hold on to scattered showers throughout the day under mostly cloudy skies. Even with an east breeze during the day at 10-20 mph, temperatures should top out close to where we were today. We’ll expect highs in the upper 50s across much of the region.

While we could see another brief break in the rain chances Tuesday evening, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies as lows for Wednesday morning drop back into the upper 40s. Before the stubborn upper-level starts moving on, it will bring one more shortwave our way to bring some scattered showers back into play for the Wednesday AM drive.

Once that shortwave clears out, we’ll see partly sunny skies return for our Wednesday afternoon. Even though we’ll still have a light easterly breeze in place, we’ll see temperatures climb back into the lower 60s for Wednesday afternoon.

In terms of all the rain chances on the way over the next 2 days, it won’t amount to much across the area. Even if we see rain amounts range between a tenth of an inch and half an inch by Wednesday morning, it will be nice to see some solid dry time work back in for Wednesday afternoon.

After a dry, partly sunny and mild Thursday with highs back in the middle 60s, we’ll keep an eye on an advancing warm front from the west and an upper-level wave riding along the returning jet stream. Both of these features could bring some isolated showers back into the forecast by Friday afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll continue to trend milder with highs back around 70° for Friday afternoon.

For Saturday, we’ll plan on keeping partly sunny skies and scattered t-storms in the forecast as our warm front wants to stick close to the region. Still, we’ll go back into warm territory with highs back in the middle 70s. Once we hit Sunday, that’s when we’ll pay closer attention to our weather setup. With another upper-level low digging across the west and the warm front still near the region, we’ll watch for the potential for scattered strong to severe t-storms as highs top out around 80° for Sunday afternoon.

For next Monday, we won’t see a big change in our setup. With the upper-level low still driving westerly winds aloft and us on the warm side of an advancing cold front from the west, we’ll stay warm with highs around 80°. We’ll also watch for another chance for strong to severe t-storms as the new work/school week gets started.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

 

May 18th-May 22nd: Warm with strong to severe t-storms possible on Tuesday.  Another event in on Thursday and Friday.  Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog – Rain chances sneaking back in for Monday – Nick

Good early Monday morning, everyone. Our Mother’s Day turned out to be quite a different day compared to how the rest of our weekend went. We had scattered rain and t-storms on Friday, but we were able to see highs climb into the middle to upper 60s that afternoon. Looking at the 36 hour trend from Saturday morning to 6 o’clock last evening, you can tell that a good storm system passed on through. After we saw highs in the lower 80s with partly sunny skies on Saturday, we went from early Sunday morning highs in the middle 70s to afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 50s across the area.

That drop in temperatures was due to a cold front that swept through the early morning hours on our Sunday. Ahead of it, we had a good complex of rain and t-storms roll through from north to south before we dried out for the afternoon. It was good to see the calmer weather this afternoon after areas that saw the t-storms picked up between half an inch and up to 3 inches Sunday morning.

The front that brought us a chillier Sunday and the t-storms early Sunday morning is well to our south. Ahead of that front, the unstable air allowed for another round of strong to severe t-storms to unfold across parts of the US from the Southern Plains through the Deep South and into the Tennessee Valley.

While it would appear that we don’t have any other systems on the way at the surface, we’re keeping an eye on what’s going on upstairs at the jet stream level. The upper-level low spinning across Idaho, the same low that sent a shortwave our way to aid in our rain and t-storms Sunday morning, is sending another wave our way to keep some rain chances in the forecast for our Monday.

While everyone stays on the dry side overnight, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and a northeast breeze at 5-15 mph. That will lead to a cold start with lows in the middle 40s across much of the area. The Future Track shows the advancing upper-level wave wanting to start bringing rain chances in by the time we get the AM drive started. It’s a good idea to have the jacket and the umbrella handy as you head out to work or school in the morning.

After the AM drive, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon out. Despite the rain chances, a lighter northeast breeze and some pockets of sunshine will help push temperatures into the middle 50s by the noon hour.

While the afternoon starts with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, this impulse will move on as we carry on through the day. That will result in partly sunny skies returning for some and a random shower or two trying to hold on. With more peaks of the sun, that should be enough to send highs back near 60° for the afternoon.

While we start Monday evening out on a dry note and partly cloudy skies, another disturbance out west will be on the way. That will result in skies turning mostly cloudy by Tuesday morning with some showers wanting to sneak back in by sunrise. It’ll be another cool start with lows back in the middle 40s across the area.

With Tuesday’s impulse passing through, we’ll have another shot for scattered showers as we roll through Tuesday morning and into the start of Tuesday afternoon.

Even with scattered showers continuing through Tuesday afternoon, we’ll still have a mild day with highs around 60° once again.

As we work into Wednesday, the upper-level low will finally get out of the Pacific Northwest and work across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. As long as it’s still around for Wednesday, we’ll keep an eye on some scattered showers during the morning hours on Wednesday. Thankfully, we’ll have partly sunny skies returning for Wednesday afternoon as highs top out in the lower 60s.

With our rain chances for the next three days, we aren’t looking at rain amounts similar to what we saw over the course of this past weekend. However, we could see rain amounts range between a quarter of an inch to half an inch by the time these rain chances clear out on Wednesday.

By Thursday, that persistent upper-level finally moves away from us. That will allow mostly sunny skies to return and allow temperatures to truly start climbing once again. Once we get past lows in the lower 40s, we’ll see highs climb into the middle to upper 60s for Thursday afternoon.

Even with partly sunny skies sneaking back in on Friday, the returning jet stream will mean temperatures will continue to climb as we head into the upcoming weekend. After we enjoy a nice start to the weekend with highs in the lower 70s, we’ll stick with Doug’s pattern and keep an eye on Saturday and Sunday. Why? Look at the Future Track below showing the jet stream setup for Saturday.

With another upper-level low assisting our next frontal system for both Saturday and Sunday, we’ll keep an eye out for scattered t-storms. While we’re expecting just normal t-storms on Saturday, we’ll see if a severe threat can materialize by next Sunday. Despite the t-storm chances, we’ll see highs in the middle 70s on Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday. If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

 

May 17th-May 22nd: Warm with thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday.  These could be strong to severe.  Another event in on Thursday and Friday.  Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog – Overnight strong t-storms followed by a chilly Mother’s Day – Nick

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. After that scattering of rain and t-storms this morning that left behind pockets of half an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall, we saw temperatures warm up nicely with returning sunshine during the afternoon. Sure enough, it was much warmer compared to yesterdays highs in the middle 60s. After we started in the upper 50s this morning, we saw partly sunny skies and a good south breeze send highs back into the lower 80s this afternoon.

Even though today was nice, we are seeing another big change that will roll in overnight and have an impact on our Mother’s Day to wrap up the weekend. At the surface, a warm front is draped to our north from the KC area into central and southeastern Missouri. We also have a trailing cold front stretching from Manhattan into central Kansas and into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. That cold front will be what will send us quite a bit cooler for our Sunday to wrap up the weekend.

Looking at the upper-level setup below, the upper-level low spinning over Montana is actually pushing a shortwave (a concentrated area of upper-level lift) across the Central Plains just north of the jet stream. That shortwave is working together with the warm front and the cold front to bring a chance for scattered strong to severe t-storms for parts of our area early Sunday morning before the shifting jet also allows us to turn cooler for Sunday.

For our Saturday evening, any strong to severe t-storms have been staying in north-central and northeastern Kansas along and north of the I-70 corridor. Even though the Future Track still shows the t-storms along I-35 and I-70 around Topeka and Kansas City by 1 AM early Sunday morning, those t-storms will start to take a dive to the southeast.

By 3:30 AM down below, you can see how the Future Track is depicting the complex of rain and t-storms clipping our northern counties along and north of US 54. Generally, we’re looking at a time frame between 1 AM and 4 AM for any of these t-storms working in to bring a low severe threat into parts of our northern and northeastern areas.

Once we hit the 4 to 5 AM time frame, the worst of the t-storms will be off to our east. However, we’ll still hold on to mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain and t-storms for some as we get your Sunday morning started. While not everyone will see t-storms overnight and Sunday morning, everyone will be turning cooler behind the cold front. As an example, Joplin will be dropping to 63° by 7 AM.

A reminder about the severe threat for part of the overnight. It’s a low severe threat for our northern counties with the best timing between midnight at the earliest and 4 AM at the latest. We’ll be keeping a close eye on t-storms that could bring some large hail and high wind gusts our way. While the tornado threat is not zero, it still looks very minimal as the greater tornado threat stays along I-70 in KS.

We’ll be glad to see the rain chances for Sunday morning clear out by 10 AM. While some areas won’t see a drop of rain from overnight and Sunday morning t-storms, areas that see the t-storms could see rain amounts range between a quarter of an inch to almost 2 inches within the heavier bands of rain.

While we do stay quiet for the rest of Sunday morning and into the afternoon on our Mother’s Day, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and see a much chillier afternoon with a good north wind in place. Most areas will drop into the middle 50s by 10 AM and hold there to start the afternoon. It looks as though the best we can do for Sunday afternoon is see temperatures only rebound into the upper 50s across the area.

Even though our frontal system will leave us alone for Sunday night and Monday morning as lows drop into the middle 40s, you can see how mostly cloudy skies will stick around as we get a new work/school week started.

Not only will the mostly cloudy skies hold firm across the area for Monday afternoon, we’ll see some additional scattered rain and t-storms work in. Despite that and a northeasterly wind in place, we should see highs top back out around 60° for Monday afternoon.

The additional rain chances on Monday will be in the forecast due to our upper-level low spinning across Montana. As we work into Tuesday, the low will track across the Nebraska/South Dakota line. That will keep mostly cloudy skies and some scattered showers in place for Tuesday as highs top back out in the lower 60s across the region.

After a repeat of Tuesday’s weather for Wednesday, the upper-level low will move on and allow us to enjoy some more dry time as we start working toward next weekend. With the low moving on for Thursday and a pretty quiet upper-level setup below for Friday, we’ll see that result in highs in the upper 60s under partly sunny skies for Thursday and highs back in the middle 70s by Friday afternoon.

Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll watch for another storm system to ride along the jet stream and slide in late Friday night and into Saturday. While that will bring partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies in for Saturday with some scattered t-storm chances back in the forecast, we should still be able to get highs to climb back into the middle 70s for Saturday afternoon.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

 

 

tiMay 16th-May 22nd: Warm with thunderstorm chances from Sunday through Tuesday.  These could be strong to severe.  Another event in on Thursday and Friday.  Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog – Watching strong to severe t-storm potential late Saturday – Nick

Good Friday evening, everyone. Even though we had to start the weekend out with mostly cloudy skies and some scattered rain and t-storms late this morning and into this afternoon, we did see temperatures rebound nicely after quite a cool start this morning. Even though we didn’t get quite as warm as the upper 60s that we saw yesterday, we did climb back into the middle 60s after we dropped to near 40° this morning.

We have a change in our weather setup that will keep some rain and t-storm chances in the forecast at times for the rest of the weekend. Looking at the surface setup below, we have our next warm front working in from the west. That will serve as a focal point for additional scattered t-storms during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning while the trailing cold front out to the west will bring additional t-storm chances in for late Saturday night.

Looking at the upper-level setup below, we will sneak back under the upper-level ridge working out of the Texas Panhandle. That will send highs back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for our Saturday afternoon before additional energy from the upper-level low in the Pacific Northwest will also aid the cold front in our t-storm and rain chances for Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

Looking at the rest of the night, we’ll have temperatures either holding steady or just dropping off a few more degrees as our warm front starts to sweep through. While the front starts to work in, we’ll see additional scattered showers and t-storms start to develop on the more stable side of the front.

Our rain and t-storm chances during the overnight will be focused from a region stretching from Yates Center to Fort Scott, Stockton Lake and down to Branson. These storms could pack a little bit of a punch with some heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty wind speeds. However, we aren’t expecting this activity overnight to turn severe.

Once we get to sunrise, we’ll see a break in the action as skies turn partly cloudy. It will be a chilly start this time around as lows only drop back into the middle to upper 50s with a southeast breeze at 5-15 mph.

While we won’t rule out a few random showers late in the morning, the vast majority of the day will be dry and warm under partly sunny skies. With a south breeze kicking in at 15-25 mph during the day, that will push us into the middle 70s by lunchtime and into the lower 80s for our Saturday afternoon.

While we do start Saturday evening out on a dry note, we’ll keep an eye out toward central Kansas by late evening. Strong to severe t-storms that will develop in central Kansas will mainly want to ride along the I-70 corridor toward Topeka and Kansas City late in the night. However, look at the projected radar output by 10 PM.

As we approach midnight heading into Sunday morning, the majority of the strong to severe t-storms want to stay to our north. That being said, the southern edge of the storms want to work across our far northern counties affecting areas north of KS 39 and from Liberal to Jerico Springs northward on the MO side. That’s something we’ll keep a close eye on as we work into the overnight hours as our Saturday comes to a close.

With the advancing cold front coming in from the west and northwest, we’ll have additional scattered rain work in for parts of the area as we work closer to sunrise on our Mother’s Day. Once we hit 3 or 4 AM, any chances we have for strong to severe t-storms will be to the east of the region across central Missouri.

To sum up our strong to severe t-storm chances for late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, we’ll keep an eye on the t-storm chances between 9 PM and 3 AM. That’s going to be the prime time for t-storms clipping our area to produce some large hail, high wind and heavy rainfall. Unless we see another major shift in how the storms move late Saturday night, any strong to severe t-storms will mainly clip our northern counties. This is a setup that we’ll continue to watch closely as we work through our Saturday.

No matter how the t-storm chances play out for the overnight hours Saturday and into Sunday, the passing cold front will give us a mostly cloudy start with scattered showers across parts of the area. It will be a bit chilly as well as lows drop back into the lower to middle 60s.

Once we get past our rain chances Sunday morning, we’ll have a dry Sunday afternoon to wrap up our Mother’s Day. However, mostly cloudy skies and a northerly breeze behind the cold front will lead to temperatures dropping back below normal as highs will mainly top out around 70° for the afternoon.

After we enjoy some dry time Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, the upper-level low to our northwest has a few more tricks up its sleeve. With it keeping the jet stream to our south, we’ll stay cooler than normal for Monday as a new work/school week gets underway with highs around 60°. In addition to that, it will send some more lift and energy our way to keep mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers in the forecast for Monday.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, we’ll remain under the influence of that stubborn upper-level low. However, its journey across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest will allow for a bit of a bump in our temperatures during each afternoon. While we do expect highs to top out in the lower to middle 60s for both Tuesday and Wednesday, the low will keep mostly cloudy skies and a chance for scattered showers in place for each day.

Fortunately, that upper-low will move on and allow our skies to brighten up as we hit the end of the week. With partly sunny skies and the returning jet, we’ll see highs in the upper 60s on Thursday and the upper 70s for Friday.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Saturday!

Nick

 

 

Next Saturday:  Staying warm with t-storm chances around.

May 16th-May 22nd: Warm with thunderstorm chances from Sunday through Tuesday.  These could be strong to severe.  Another event in on Thursday and Friday.  Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog: More thunderstorms and a severe threat this weekend. -Doug

Good Thursday night!  I hope your week has been going great!  Mine has been busy but good.  Christian (my son) is having his 12th B-Day party tomorrow evening.  4 or 5 12 years old boys should be funny staying over.  I get such a kick out of listening to their conversations at this age.  We are going to have to start to watch for showers and thunderstorms increasing with a severe threat on Saturday.  Let’s break it down.

A warm front will start to work during the morning hours.  Along and north of the front, we will start to get scattered showers and even a few thundershowers.

The best chances for showers will be from 10AM-2PM.  I do think we will clear out by evening and climb into the upper 60s.  Friday night, additional thunderstorms will pop up.  Again these will be along and north of the warm front.  So these will be mainly in the northern half of the area.  A few of these could be stronger, but I don’t expect severe.

Scattered thunderstorms into Saturday morning, but most of Saturday will be warm, windy and dry.

We will be in a capped environment on Saturday afternoon.  A cap is a layer of warm air aloft, several thousand feet above the surface.  Or can be described as an area of stable air aloft.  Thunderstorms have a hard time busting through the cap.  But once they do, they can really fire up.  So Saturday afternoon we have a slight chance that a couple storms bust through the cap, but I think unlikely at this point in time.  So I think most of the day will be dry.  However, by the evening hours, thunderstorms will get through the cap across central KS and start plowing SE.

This will mostly likely become a severe line of storms and work in during the middle of the overnight hours on Saturday night.

If this line can become severe, it will most likely produce high winds and hail with a low tornado threat.  As of right now, I am going to keep the overall threat for severe weather low, but I may have to up it to moderate as we get a little closer to the event.  So on that note, here is May.

I have taken a little different approach to the system break down map.  I changed everything to a low threat, with one moderate day.  So this gives you a very good idea when severe weather is possible.  As we get closer to events and severe weather looks more likely I will up it to a moderate threat.  If I am 100% we are going to have a big event, we will go to a high threat.  Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

 

 

Next Friday through Saturday:  Warming back up with thunderstorms chances back in on Friday and Saturday.

May 16th-May 22nd: Warm with thunderstorm chances from Sunday through Tuesday.  These could be strong to severe.  Another event in on Thursday and Friday.  Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog: Active May ahead! -Doug

Good Wednesday evening!  I hope your hump day has been great and we cruise right on through the week.  My week has been pretty good so far.  At least the weather was fantastic today.  We do have a weak wave working through that could give us a few random showers tonight and into the morning hours.

By the afternoon, I think we look pretty good with nice temperatures.  A warm front will shift in ahead of our next storm system on Friday.  This could give us a few scattered thunderstorms.  I don’t expect these to be strong or severe, but they will be out there on Friday.

I don’t expect these to be strong or severe as most of these will form along and north of the warm front.  As that warm front shifts north, south winds increase and we will really warm up on Saturday.

Now, we will be in the warm sector of this storm system and I do think a few isolated thunderstorms will pop up during the afternoon.  The ones that do pop up will have the potential to go severe in the afternoon.  We need to watch this the next couple of days.  However, the more widespread thunderstorms will occur during the overnight hours as the cold front heads toward us Saturday night.

This would give us a bigger complex of storms that could be strong to severe.  Lets watch this and see how it looks over the next few days.  Once the front rolls through, I don’t think we will have a severe threat again until a very low threat by mid next week.

Looking at this calendar.  Here is when I think we could have severe weather with the Heady Pattern.  Now remember, this isn’t set in stone, it is a potential.  As we get closer to events I may up the threat or lower it depending on how systems come together.  The week of the 16th should give us the highest chances for multiple events.

Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

 

Next Thursday through Saturday:  Warming back up with thunderstorms chances back in on Friday and Saturday.

May 16th-May 22nd: We’ll we warm for Sunday through Tuesday before mild temperatures take hold for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before we deal with a slight chance for rain on Wednesday. Another severe threat returns on Thursday. After some scattered t-storms on Friday, we’ll enjoy a quiet Saturday.

May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll stay warm for Sunday and Monday. After a mild stretch Tuesday through Thursday, we’ll warm up again in time for the weekend. We’ll be keeping an eye on a severe threat for Sunday and Monday before we back down to scattered t-storms on Tuesday and showers for Wednesday. After a quiet Thursday, we’ll watch for another severe threat on Friday and scattered t-storms on Saturday.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Latest updated blog – Staying mild for Wednesday – Nick

Good late Tuesday evening, everyone. Sure enough, our storm system changed things up quite a bit compared to the weather we had on Monday. After a warm start to the work/school week, temperatures turned sharply cooler. While we did see an early morning high of 60°, a good portion of the area spent much of the day in the 50s. As the skies cleared, we did see Joplin jump back into the upper 50s and the rest of the region pushed back into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

It was a good thing this system cleared out because we saw quite a bit of rainfall stack up when nobody was clamoring for it. With this system, we picked up 0.7″ on average while the heavier amounts popped up along and south of I-44.

Looking at our weather setup, the front that worked through yesterday and kept any severe weather just to our south has moved off to our east. While the warm side of that system spawned more severe weather across parts of the Deep South and Southeast, we’re getting a chance to dry out before another quick system from the west rolls in.

Whether you look at our next system at the surface or in the upper levels, it’s quite a disorganized system. In the upper levels, you’ll barely notice a kink in the jet over Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado. That’s the next system to work in here pretty soon.

In the meantime, it’ll be nice to keep dry and quiet for tonight under mostly clear skies. However, the mostly clear skies will interact with the moisture on the ground and a light breeze to allow for some patchy fog to develop overnight. Otherwise, it’ll be quite cool to start Wednesday morning out as lows drop back near 40° across the area.

Once we get past our cool start in the morning, we’ll enjoy mostly sunny skies through the morning. Even with some partly sunny skies returning in the afternoon, a continued light breeze will allow highs to climb back into the upper 60s across the area. The partly sunny skies will work in as our next system rolls in as well. While this could also lead to a few showers late in the day, they’ll be very spotty in nature and light. Most of us will be dry throughout the day.

This wave will keep skies partly cloudy as we go through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Also, this will be the time frame for this storm system to give us scattered showers. Even so, they’ll be scattered and we won’t see anything strong. It’ll be another cool start for our Thursday with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

With the wave moving through quickly, any rain chances we have will clear out once we get into late Thursday morning and certainly by the afternoon. With partly to mostly sunny skies, we’ll stay mild for Thursday with highs mainly in the upper 60s.

Looking into the weekend, we’ll have another storm system start to approach on Friday. While we’ll watch an approaching warm front work in Friday afternoon with some isolated t-storms possible, we’ll stay mild with highs around 70°.

Continuing into Saturday, the warm front will lift to our north and make sure that we have a warm Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper 70s. In the warm sector, we’ll watch for some scattered t-storms during the afternoon and into the evening. Some of those could be strong to severe.

With this storm system, the better shot for t-storms and some severe weather will come through Saturday night and into Sunday morning. While we’ll start Mother’s Day out with t-storm chances, we’ll dry out for the late morning hours and for Sunday afternoon. We’ll see highs in the middle 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

We’ll stay mild but below normal for early next week with highs in the lower 60s for Monday and Tuesday. However, we’ll have to keep rain chances in the forecast as another upper-level wave in the Rockies wants to send additional energy our way. While that keeps scattered t-storms in the forecast, it doesn’t appear as though they’ll be severe. Since it’s that time of the year, though, we’ll keep an eye on those t-storm chances as well.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of May and much of June, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

 

May 12th-May 15th:  We’ll deal with some showers on Wednesday before another severe threat returns on Friday. Mild temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday before we warm back up for the weekend.

May 16th-May 22nd: We’ll we warm for Sunday through Tuesday before mild temperatures take hold for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before we deal with a slight chance for rain on Wednesday. Another severe threat returns on Thursday. After some scattered t-storms on Friday, we’ll enjoy a quiet Saturday.

May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll stay warm for Sunday and Monday. After a mild stretch Tuesday through Thursday, we’ll warm up again in time for the weekend. We’ll be keeping an eye on a severe threat for Sunday and Monday before we back down to scattered t-storms on Tuesday and showers for Wednesday. After a quiet Thursday, we’ll watch for another severe threat on Friday and scattered t-storms on Saturday.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.