Thursday blog: Warmer by day, a wintry mix by night -Chris

Good Thursday morning everyone. We’re looking at some changes in the forecast starting today. We’re going to be warmer today than we were yesterday as highs push into the mid to even upper 40s. However, by this afternoon, a wintry mix starts moving into our northern counties.

As the evening continues and temperatures fall we’ll see more of a wintry mix forming along and north of Highway 54.

After sunset, the temps really start to fall back and we’re looking at a wintry mix, some rain showers, and some snow showers overspreading the area.

By late night and overnight, we’ll have some light snow and a light wintry mix holding on across parts of the area until it eventually clears out early Friday morning.

 

At this time, we’re not looking at any major accumulations across the area, though we could see anywhere from a dusting to a half inch of snow.

For your drive home, we’ve got a yellow light as we see that wintry mix start to overspread the area and temperatures begin to fall.

We’re looking at highs in the mid to upper 40s this afternoon but temperatures will begin to fall this afternoon allowing for that wintry mix to move in.

Tonight, another cold night ahead of us as we’ll see some wintry precip tapering off by early tomorrow morning and lows in the lower 20s.

The weekend is a preview of what’s to come as we start to trend a pinch warmer with some clearing skies, however, Saturday and Sunday night will still be cold with lows in the 20s.

We’ve got a warmup on the way heading into next week.

Your long range forecast is below.

-Chris

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Long range forecast:

Next Wednesday-Saturday:  Warming up with rain chances in on Wednesday and Thursday.  Depending on the track of the system, we could get a mix of rain or snow in here by Black Friday but it doesn’t look likely at this time.  We will cool back down after Thanksgiving.

November 27th-December 3rd: Mainly a cold or chilly week.  Some rain or snow chances on Tuesday, then cold and mainly dry the rest of the week.

December 18th-24th: A mild start to the week but turning colder by Tuesday.  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Then slight chances for rain or snow on Wednesday and Thursday.  Warming up a bit for Christmas but another decent system coming in right after Christmas.

Latest Blog: Cold temperatures stick around and long range forecast. -Doug

I hope your week has been great so far! Mine has been busy but I love to see a little bit of snow.  I haven’t put the winter forecast together yet, but I will do that over the next couple of weeks.  Also the new Heady Pattern is right on track with a short cycle this year.  Last year was 64 days long but a short 44-45 day cycle this year.  I prefer a shorter cycle due to if a system comes through that I really like, I don’t have to wait to long for it to whip back in.  We are going to start Wednesday with some clouds and even a few flurries.

By the afternoon, sunshine once again but staying cold with highs only into the upper 30s.  Also it will be breezy out there.

Here is the problem and will become a recurring one this winter.  Look at this upper level low.

You can see the Jet Stream right out of Canada into the central plains.  This just continues to pump the colder air into our neck of the woods.  Until this low shifts away, we are going to be pretty cold and that will last the rest of the week.  By Thursday, clouds increase once again with a few random sprinkles.

By Thursday night, we could get some flurries or even a few snow showers.

We do start to warm up a bit next week but I am watching for another moderate size system working in around Thanksgiving.  Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

 

Long range forecast:

Next Wednesday-Saturday:  Warming up with rain chances in on Wednesday and Thursday.  Depending on the track of the system, we could get a mix of rain or snow in here by Black Friday but it doesn’t look likely at this time.  We will cool back down after Thanksgiving.

November 27th-December 3rd: Mainly a cold or chilly week.  Some rain or snow chances on Tuesday, then cold and mainly dry the rest of the week.

December 18th-24th: A mild start to the week but turning colder by Tuesday.  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Then slight chances for rain or snow on Wednesday and Thursday.  Warming up a bit for Christmas but another decent system coming in right after Christmas.

Monday blog: Snow shower chances and cold weather continue -Chris

Good Monday morning everyone, I hope you’re week is off to a great start. We’ve got the possibility of a wintry mix later today as we see rain and snow showers build into the area. While our temps are warming into the 40s, temps in the upper atmosphere will be cold enough that we’ll see snow forming there and as it falls, some of it will melt giving us rain and snow showers as we head into the afternoon.

A look at the future track by tonight shows a bit more widespread opportunities for snow across the area as temperatures here at ground level begin to fall.

We may have some flurries hanging on early Tuesday morning before the system exits. The good news is, we’re not expecting any major accumulations, but we could get a dusting on grassy surfaces and we may be left with some slick spots and possibly even some icy patches on the road tonight into tomorrow.

We’re heading for a high in the lower to mid 40s across the area with the rain and snow showers building in by this afternoon and hanging on through most of the evening.

We have another cold night ahead of us with temperatures dropping back to the lower 30s and holding steady. We may also see a flurry or two early tomorrow morning as the system exits.

The below normal temperatures continue for the rest of this week before we start to warm up next week.

Your long range forecast is below.

-Chris

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Long range forecast:

Late next week: Staying chilly and we do have a wave on Thursday and Friday, but it looks to stay mainly south of us but I am watching it.

November 20th-26th:  A cool start to the week with slight rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up into Thanksgiving but cooling back down by Friday and Saturday.  Also rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances on Saturday.

November 27th-December 3rd: Mainly and cold or cool week.  Slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

December 18th-24th: A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying chill into the weekend but warming up by Christmas Eve.  Slight chances for showers on Thursday and Friday.

Weekend Blog: Cold temperatures and watching a system for Monday. -Doug

I hope you have had a great week and ready for the weekend.  Of course, it got super cold and even some flurries out there.  We did get some decent rain on Thursday night.  Here is where we sit for stats.

We are still behind but looking better.  Cold temperatures stick around on Saturday.

At least we get some sunshine.  It does get a little better on Sunday.

High temperatures will be near 50 at least.  Lets jump into Monday afternoon.

This is still a ways away so lets watch it.  But it looks like rain will increase late in the day on Monday.  With cooling overnight we could or possibly will switch over to a wet snow or at least a rain/snow mix.

There is a lot to watch with this.  Lets say this does happen, we could get some accumulations.  With temperatures near freezing, most likely it would only on the grassy surfaces.  I will keep you updated this weekend.

-Doug

Long range forecast:

Late next week: Staying chilly and we do have a wave on Thursday and Friday, but it looks to stay mainly south of us but I am watching it.

November 20th-26th:  A cool start to the week with slight rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up into Thanksgiving but cooling back down by Friday and Saturday.  Also rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances on Saturday.

November 27th-December 3rd: Mainly and cold or cool week.  Slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

December 4th-10th: Back to mild temperatures most of the week.  Turning colder toward the week with rain possible over to snow no Thursday and Friday.

December 18th-24th: A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying chill into the weekend but warming up by Christmas Eve.  Slight chances for showers on Thursday and Friday.

Storms on the way and a big cool down -Chris

Good Thursday morning everyone. If you’ve enjoyed the mild temps, I’ve got bad news, however, if you like cold weather, then I’ve got great news.

We have gusty winds ahead of our front today with gusts pushing 30-40mph across the region as we head into the late morning hours.

The good news is, we’re getting some much needed rain across the area with totals anywhere from half an inch to an inch and a half across the area.

 

We’ll get some scattered showers and storms ahead of the front as early as 11:00 Thursday morning.

Scattered storms continue through the evening hours with a few more getting going as the front draws closer around 5:00 this evening.

Scattered storms increase in coverage across the area through the late evening and overnight hours. As temps fall behind the front, a stray flurry or two is possible, but no widespread snow.

For today, we’re heading for a high around 74° and temps begin to fall by this evening.

They continue to fall tonight as we drop back down to 35° with showers and storms clearing out around 2 or 3:00 in the morning.

We stay cold for the next several days as we look at the long range forecast, which you’ll find below.

-Chris

LONG RANGE FORECAST

Long range forecast:

Late next week: Staying chilly and we do have a wave on Thursday and Friday, but it looks to stay mainly south of us but I am watching it.

November 20th-26th:  A cool start to the week with slight rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up into Thanksgiving but cooling back down by Friday and Saturday.  Also rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances on Saturday.

November 27th-December 3rd: Mainly and cold or cool week.  Slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

December 4th-10th: Back to mild temperatures most of the week.  Turning colder toward the week with rain possible over to snow no Thursday and Friday.

December 18th-24th: A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying chill into the weekend but warming up by Christmas Eve.  Slight chances for showers on Thursday and Friday.

Latest Blog: Thunderstorms in the forecast and even maybe some snow. -Doug

I hope you have had a great week so far and have been enjoying the warm temperatures over the past few days.  Thursday will be warm as well, but thunderstorms back in the forecast.  Lets jump into Thursday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms increasing by the mid afternoon.  We could see a few stronger storms, but I am not expecting these to be severe as of right now.  Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase by the evening hours.

Thunderstorms continue through the evening hours.  A very strong cold front works through with these showers and thunderstorms.  So expect the temperatures to really drop off during the evening.  By late evening, still scattered showers and thunderstorms, but mainly along and south of I-44.

By midnight, the temperatures will be dropping into the 40s with showers continuing.  By morning,  the rain will be working out with still a few showers along and south of I-44.  We will be into the 30s and there could be a random flake mixed in.

By Friday afternoon the sun returns but highs only into the mid 40s.  Lets look at rainfall timing.

I think most of us will be in the 1/2-1″ of rain, which we all need the rain.

The weekend will be chilly but sunny.  The next system I am keeping my eyes on is on Monday.  This could be a rain/snow mix or rain over to snow.  If we got some snow, the ground would be fairly warm and most of this wouldn’t stick but something to definitely watch.

Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

Long range forecast:

Late next week: Staying chilly and we do have a wave on Thursday and Friday, but it looks to stay mainly south of us but I am watching it.

November 20th-26th:  A cool start to the week with slight rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up into Thanksgiving but cooling back down by Friday and Saturday.  Also rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances on Saturday.

November 27th-December 3rd: Mainly and cold or cool week.  Slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

December 4th-10th: Back to mild temperatures most of the week.  Turning colder toward the week with rain possible over to snow no Thursday and Friday.

December 11th-17th:  A chilly start to the week with slight rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Warming up toward the weekend.

December 18th-24th: A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying chill into the weekend but warming up by Christmas Eve.  Slight chances for showers on Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday blog: Scattered showers and storms today and a big cool down coming -Chris

Good Tuesday morning everyone. Don’t forget to celebrate Tuesday, as we’re one step closer to the weekend.

Today is of course, election day so make sure you get out there and vote. Morning showers and storms may get you wet if you vote early, but if you hold off and vote after your workday, we’re looking good. Maybe a stray shower or two by 5:00, otherwise mostly cloudy, dry and in the 60s.

Scattered showers and storms are likely through the first half of our day as you can see by 9:00 they’re a bit more widespread across the area.

 

We’re looking at a good drive home though, temperatures in the 60s and mostly cloudy skies as showers and storms clear out around 4:00-5:00 this evening.

Today, we’ve got the scattered showers and storms, otherwise we’re mostly cloudy and mild with a high right around 73°.

Heading into tonight, the rain clears up leaving us with mostly cloudy skies and a very mild evening with a low around 61°.

We’ve got a big storm system coming in on Thursday which brings us more widespread showers and thunderstorms and brings us much colder temperatures heading into the upcoming weekend.

Your 7-day forecast is is below.

-Chris

7-DAY FORECAST

Warm and windy today, thunderstorms moving in Friday -Chris

Good Thursday morning everyone. We’re a step closer to the weekend and to some much needed rain chances across the area. However, we’ve got to get through a few hurdles on our way to rain. The big one, is increasing wind gusts again. Gusts today could push upwards of 35mph and possibly greater as we head into Friday.

The rain tracker is always updating getting the latest information. Right now, our rain projections have us getting from 1-3″ of rain with the heaviest amounts right across the heart of the area.

There’s a very low-end risk for some severe storms today in our far western counties. If any of the storms out west get a bit nasty later, some hail and gusty winds are the main threat. Our better chances of strong and possibly severe thunderstorms comes on Friday with the main system passing through.

Today, we’re windy and mostly cloudy. We’ve got highs pushing the mid to upper 70s across the area, so above where we should be this time of year.

Tonight, we’re about 20° above where we should be for an overnight low. We could see a few scattered showers, especially in SEK, with lows in the upper 60s.

The big show gets going Friday afternoon. Some scattered showers and storms are possible across the area in the morning hours – after 9:00, but more organized thunderstorms get going later in the day around 2:00pm.

We’ve got another unseasonably warm week ahead of us after this system gets through.

Your long range forecast is below.

-Chris

 

LONG RANGE FORECAST


Long range forecast: Based off the Heady Pattern

Next Wednesday-Saturday:  Mild on Wednesday and Thursday but cooling down Friday and Saturday.  Rain chances on Thursday.

November 13th-19th: Cool start with rain chances on Sunday.  Rain chances back in by the middle of the week.  Mainly a cool week

November 27th-December 3rd:  A cold start then the second half of the week mainly chilly.  Rain or snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

December 4th-10th: Warming up this week and mainly dry until Friday and Saturday.  Rain or snow chances and cooling down for the weekend.

Wednesday Blog: Keeping a close eye on strong to severe storms on Friday. -Dalton

It turned out to be a pretty great day outside for us today as we once again had temperatures into the mid 70s across the area. We’ve had winds gusty at times which will be a theme as we head into the next couple of days as the highest gusts could be in the 30-40mph range.

 

Tomorrow looks to be pretty good once again as we’ll have temperatures into the mid-upper 70s across the viewing area.

 

By Friday morning we will begin to see changes as showers and thunderstorms try to work into our far northwestern counties.

As we work through the day thunderstorms which could be strong to low grade severe will push into Southeastern Kansas.

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to track east and look to be along the Kansas-Missouri state line by around 5 p.m.

These thunderstorms will be out of here around 8 p.m.

As mentioned there is a low severe threat with these storms. The greater severe threat will be along and south of I-44. Main threats will be wind and hail with a very low tornado threat, but something we need to keep an eye on over the next couple of days. Rainfall will be heavy if you’re caught underneath these storms which is something we need as help with the ongoing drought.

 

 

Most areas will have rainfall amounts around an inch on average, however some spots will have higher amounts depending on where these storms track.

Long range forecast is below.

Have a great day!

-Dalton

 

Long range forecast: Based off the Heady Pattern

Next Wednesday-Saturday:  Mild on Wednesday and Thursday but cooling down Friday and Saturday.  Rain chances on Thursday.

November 13th-19th: Cool start with rain chances on Sunday.  Rain chances back in by the middle of the week.  Mainly a cool week

November 20th-26th: A chilly first half of the week with rain chances on Monday.  Warming up a bit with rain chances on Thanksgiving, then cooling back down.  Rain chances stick around on Black Friday and into Saturday.  There is a chance we may get some snow mixing in.

November 27th-December 3rd:  A cold start then the second half of the week mainly chilly.  Rain or snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

December 4th-10th: Warming up this week and mainly dry until Friday and Saturday.  Rain or snow chances and cooling down for the weekend.

Latest Blog: Watching for strong to severe storms on Friday. -Doug

I hope your week is going great so far and you are enjoying the fantastic weather we have been having.  We are going to continue to have great weather the next few days.  Wednesday is looking great!

We are going to see more clouds over the next few days and the winds will pick up a little bit ahead of our next storm system on Friday.  So lets jump into Thursday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms out across central KS.  Some of those could be strong to severe but should stay west of us.  Now on Friday is when we get into the action.

This is Friday early afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms will get going in our western counties.  Now some of these could be strong and maybe even low grade severe during the afternoon and evening.  The main threats right now look to be gusty winds, some hail and very heavy rains.  This continues into the evening hours, of course during high school playoff football.

Strong to severe storm threat will last into the late evening hours.  Most of the stronger storms will be gone after midnight.

However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some lingering showers on Saturday morning.  Rainfall amounts should be decent and we need that to put a bigger dent into the drought.

Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

 

Long range forecast: Based off the Heady Pattern

Next Wednesday-Saturday:  Mild on Wednesday and Thursday but cooling down Friday and Saturday.  Rain chances on Thursday.

November 13th-19th: Cool start with rain chances on Sunday.  Rain chances back in by the middle of the week.  Mainly a cool week

November 20th-26th: A chilly first half of the week with rain chances on Monday.  Warming up a bit with rain chances on Thanksgiving, then cooling back down.  Rain chances stick around on Black Friday and into Saturday.  There is a chance we may get some snow mixing in.

November 27th-December 3rd:  A cold start then the second half of the week mainly chilly.  Rain or snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

December 4th-10th: Warming up this week and mainly dry until Friday and Saturday.  Rain or snow chances and cooling down for the weekend.