Good Sunday evening, everyone. Aside from the few severe t-storm warnings Saturday evening, we were able to avoid the majority of the severe threat this storm system brought to other parts of the Central Plains last night. That being said, most of us picked up on more widespread rain and t-storms through the night and through our Sunday to wrap up the weekend. Have a look at the rain amounts below. While the area averaged out at 0.7″ with this storm system, look at how the heavier amounts set up right along and south of I-44. In fact, central Barry County has a flood warning out since 1 to 3 inches of rain have fallen in total. Any rising waters around the Flat Creek and Rockhouse Creek Basins should subside by 9:30 Monday morning.
The cold front did live up to its name as we saw temperatures take a drop for today. After many of us saw midnight highs in the lower 70s, the clouds and the periods of rain and t-storms kept temperatures in the 50s through the morning and afternoon. For those that were able to dry out and see some returning sun during the day, you were able to get back into the 60s (even a few spots back near 70°) before the afternoon wrapped up. Thankfully, the departing cold front will carry the remaining rain chances out to the east of the area as we continue into Monday morning.
With a northwest flow from high pressure to our west and from the surface low of our departing cold front, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies turn partly cloudy by sunrise. With some clearing and a light north breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll start Monday on a cool note with lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Fortunately, it won’t stay cool all day long. Even with a north breeze during the day at 5-15 mph (occasional gusts near 20 mph), returning mostly sunny skies will let temperatures climb back near 62° in the Joplin area for Monday afternoon. Other areas will have highs range in the lower to middle 60s. These number are a bit below normal, but it will feel nice with the returning sunshine.
Developing clouds from the west will pass on through Monday evening with nothing else coming along for the ride. As skies start to turn mostly clear again late Monday night and into Tuesday morning, a light north to east breeze will let temperatures drop back into the upper 30s and near 40°. After a bit of a cold start, mostly sunny skies will let highs climb back into the middle 60s for our Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday will stay mild with highs back near 70° under partly sunny skies. Look at some of the changes coming at us by Thursday below. Even though we’ll have a bit of an upper-level ridge trying to build in over the Central Plains, our next system at the surface and riding along the jet will bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered t-storms back in for Thursday. We’ll keep temperatures mild with highs in the upper 60s for Thursday afternoon.
Sticking with Doug’s pattern, though, our next big system in the pattern will come our way as we head into Friday. While it will be a bit warm during the day with highs in the middle 70s, the incoming upper-level low will certainly push a front at the surface our way. Based on how the upper-level low wants to track across the Central and Northern Plains, we’ll keep a close eye on returning t-storms for Friday, Friday night and early Saturday morning. That could be our next potential setup for strong to severe t-storms.
Once any t-storms clear out early Saturday morning, we’ll stay partly sunny and dry for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the lower to middle 70s. Doug’s long range forecast takes you through much of the month of May down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
Nick
May 2nd-7th: A mild start to the week but warming up by mid week. Thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Friday with a severe threat on Friday.
May 15th-21st: Cooler start to the week with thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. We warm up toward the weekend with Saturday thunderstorms, most likely severe.