Rain and t-storms still locked in for your Sunday – Nick

Good early Sunday morning, everyone. As advertised, our Saturday was a warm one with highs pushing into the middle to upper 70s across the region ahead of our cold front. While the front came in late last night and early this morning, we actually had a boundary at the surface from the storms that came out of central and western Kansas from late Friday night fire up a thin line of showers and t-storms for areas along and east of US 69 (even along and east of US 59). That moved east into southwest Missouri and kept that part of our area and northwest Arkansas under mostly cloudy skies. That also meant any strong to severe t-storms stayed out in south-central and southeast Kansas and into central Oklahoma. The front will still play a key role in our forecast as we wrap up the weekend today.

As the front approaches, it will act as a stronger lifting mechanism to allow for more showers and t-storms to develop. Fortunately, our severe threat very early this morning is very low. However, the strongest t-storms could be loud with some minor wind gusts, some small hail and (mainly) moderate to heavy rain. You can see how the Future Track wants the rain chances to start picking up in coverage as we continue through the early morning hours.

On top of that, temperatures will be cooling down as the rain picks up and the cold front begins to sweep through. Temperatures through the morning will eventually drop back into the 50s across the majority of the area and certainly staying in the 50s as we get this afternoon started. Note how the rain & t-storm chances will also continue as the afternoon gets going.

For areas that will be under mostly cloudy skies and continued chances for showers and t-storms during the day, you can see how it’ll be a struggle to get back into the upper 50s by late afternoon. Any areas that can see more dry time and see some pockets of sun will push back into the 60s before the afternoon is all wrapped up.

As for the rain chances, they will continue through the evening under mostly cloudy skies. Once we get into the overnight and early Monday morning, the system will move on and take the rain chances along with hit. As far as potential totals go, we’ll see rain amounts vary quite a bit. Areas to the northwest of I-44 will generally see a quarter of an inch to an inch of rain totals. Areas along and south of I-44 with more periods of rain could see the totals push between 1 and 3 inches. This could lead to some flood issues for some of our southern counties that we’ll certainly keep an eye on.

Our Monday will certainly look drier and brighter as a new work/school week gets underway. With skies turning mostly sunny throughout the day, we’ll have temperatures go from the middle 40s in the morning into the lower to middle 60s across the region for the afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday will stay dry and mild under partly to mostly sunny skies across the area. Looking at Thursday, you can see other changes eager to roll on in. While an upper-level ridge tries to build in and push warmer air back in, we’ll have a wave keep mostly cloudy skies in place with some scattered t-storms around. This should keep highs in the upper 60s for Thursday afternoon.

By Friday, we’ll have another upper-level low coming out of the west and work into the Central Plains. This will certainly keep scattered t-storms in the forecast for Friday, Friday evening and early Saturday morning. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, the t-storms Friday could be strong to severe. We’ll continue to watch that setup as we proceed throughout the week. We’ll at least push highs in the upper 70s for Friday before dipping back into the upper 60s on Saturday.

Doug’s long range forecast takes you through much of the month of May down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

May 1st-7th:  A mild start to the week but warming up by mid week.  Thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Friday with a severe threat on Friday.

May 8th-14th:  A warm storm with thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, most likely severe.  Cooler for the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures back in the rest of the week with  thunderstorms by the weekend.

May 15th-21st:  Cooler start to the week with thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.  We warm up toward the weekend with Saturday thunderstorms, most likely severe.

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