Sticking with Doug’s pattern, our next shot for a bigger severe threat is still lining up for Saturday. We’ll have a strong cold front working in from the west and warm temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. With the approaching front and upper-level support from a low working across the Central & Northern Plains, the dynamic support for t-storms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night will be there.
The big question is how unstable our airmass can get as we work through Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night. With modest instability, that could be enough to get some scattered t-storms (possible supercells as well) for parts of southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma late in the afternoon and to start Saturday evening out. With that projected instability, we’ll have a low severe threat with wind, hail and possible tornadoes to contend with as those scattered t-storms try to develop.
If we get more instability and we get stronger dynamic support to come in, we may have to increase that severe threat for the evening. Eventually, though, a line of t-storms along the advancing cold front will press in from the northwest as we head into Saturday night. That band of t-storms will pack more of a high wind and heavy rain threat as the storms plan on sticking with us into Sunday. We’ll continue to keep a very close eye on Saturday’s t-storm chances and severe threat throughout the course of the week.
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