Mild Friday with t-storms to watch – Nick

Good late Thursday evening, everyone. Sure enough, we had a cold start to the day with lows in the lower to middle 30s. In fact, the official low of 32° at Joplin Regional meant we all had to deal with either a light freeze or a hearty frost this morning. Fortunately, mostly sunny skies and a good south wind sent our highs into the lower to middle 60s this afternoon. Now, the focus as we get into our Easter Holiday weekend will be returning rain and t-storm chances. At the surface, we have a warm front to the south that will work in first late in the morning and into our Friday afternoon. Then, the cold front to our northwest will work in for the evening and set the tone for cooler air for Saturday and Easter Sunday.

As some upper-level energy begins to approach from the west out of Colorado, that will result in building cloud cover overnight and into our Friday morning. With the increasing clouds and a south wind that will pick back up overnight, we’ll have our lows in the middle to upper 40s before sunrise. By 7 AM, we’ll have most areas around 51° for the AM drive to work and school. As the warm front comes in from the south, the front will look to spark some scattered t-storms by late morning and into the early afternoon. Even with some scattered t-storms trying to get going by the noon hour, you can see how temperatures will still climb into the lower to middle 60s to start the afternoon out.

By late afternoon, indications have any t-storms to start the afternoon out moving off to the east. Even with mostly cloudy skies around, the dry time and the south wind with the front should send highs into the lower 70s for most and some middle 70s possible in our western areas.

For Friday evening, the cold front and additional upper-level energy will come into play. That combination will spark some scattered t-storms for areas along and south of the I-44 corridor and the KS/OK border. With the way things are looking, we aren’t too concerned about a tornado threat. If any t-storms can turn strong enough or severe, we’ll be on guard for the potential for large hail (up to golf-ball size), heavy rain and some high wind gusts.

As you saw from the timing above, the timing of the severe potential for Friday will be as early as 5 PM and lasting until we hit midnight heading into Saturday morning. While it’s possible some scattered t-storms could develop as early as 5 PM in our southern counties, we’ll certainly be expecting them to be around by 8 Friday evening.

By midnight, any threat for strong to severe t-storms will move off to our southeast. However, we’ll still have some scattered showers and a few t-storms in our southern counties to start our Saturday morning out. Everyone else will start off on a mostly cloudy and cool note with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

While Saturday will start out with some scattered showers and t-storms in the morning, we’ll dry out for the afternoon. Behind the cold front, the northeast breeze will usher in cooler air. We’ll still be a bit mild with highs around 60° across the area for Saturday afternoon.

While Saturday afternoon is looking dry, another upper-level wave will come in for Easter Sunday. Unfortunately, the latest indications show Easter Sunday staying cloudy with periods of scattered rain during the day. As for temperatures, it will be a chilly Easter Sunday with lows in the middle 40s and highs only climbing into the lower 50s across the area.

After the weekend, we’ll get the new work/school week started on a dry but chilly note. Our Monday will start a bit cold with lows in the upper 30s before partly sunny skies will allow highs to climb back into the upper 50s. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we will turn mild again through the middle of next week. However, we’ll watch for another system by next Tuesday and Wednesday. While that system could bring some scattered showers our way for Tuesday afternoon and evening, we’ll see if this can bring some scattered t-storms (some possibly strong) for Wednesday.

After that system, next Thursday is looking dry, mostly sunny and mild with highs back near 70° across the area. Doug’s long range forecast through the rest of the month and through the middle of May is down below. Have a good night and a great Friday!

Nick

April 22nd & 23rd:  Warming back up into the weekend with thunderstorm chances returning on Thursday and Friday.  Those could be strong to severe.

April 24th-30th:  Our temperatures look mainly mild for this week. We’ll watch for t-storm chances Sunday, slight t-storm chances Wednesday, slight t-storm chances Thursday and t-storm chances Friday.

May 1st-7th:  A warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, most likely severe.  Thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, also most likely severe.

May 8th-14th:  A warm storm with thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, most likely severe.  Cooler for the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures back in the rest of the week with  thunderstorms by the weekend.

May 15th-21st:  Cooler start to the week with thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.  We warm up toward the weekend with Saturday thunderstorms, most likely severe.

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