Severe threat staying to our south and north this evening

Like Doug and I have talked about over the past few days, how our weather would unfold today all depended on if the cap (or layer of warm air aloft) would remain strong over the region.

If it was going to break, we would be looking at t-storms and severe weather in our area. Fortunately, all indications we have pointed to the cap staying strong. Therefore, we’re not worried about severe weather for this evening or to start tonight out.

The cap will break over parts of Texas and up north into Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota. That’s where the enhanced to high risk for severe weather will be for this evening and tonight.

The storms in Texas will be mainly capable of wind and hail as they continue to develop this late afternoon and evening. However, the better dynamic support and environment will lead to severe t-storms with a wind, hail and tornado threat up in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and southeastern South Dakota as the evening gets underway.

For us, we’ll wait for some rain and t-storms along the advancing cold front to head our way early Wednesday morning after 3 or 4 AM. The line will be in a weakening state as they come in.

So, we’re expecting just strong (maybe a few low-grade severe t-storms) by the time we get closer to sunrise Wednesday morning. We’ll still keep an eye on this storm system as we head through the evening and into tonight.

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