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Watching t-storm chances carefully on a warm Tuesday – Nick

Good Monday evening, everyone. After dealing with strong to severe t-storms last night and into this morning, it’s nice that we don’t have anything to track other than quiet weather for tonight. It’s deserved since many spots along the I-44 corridor saw rain amounts total between 1 and 5 inches. That was enough to cause some flash flooding for parts of Cherokee and Jasper counties early this morning. On top of that, we did see some hail reports range from penny-size hail to half-dollar size hail and wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph. That front is firing up additional severe t-storms to our south this evening while we watch for another approaching warm front from the southwest and another cold front from the west.

The warm front will pass through first as we head through the night and early Tuesday morning. As a result, we’ll have our overnight lows near 52° early in the overnight hours. Despite partly cloudy skies in the cards overnight, the returning southeast and southerly breeze will nudge temperatures back near 60° by the time we get our Tuesday AM drive underway.

Throughout the day, the south wind at 15-25 mph will make sure that our afternoon highs will climb into the lower 80s across the area under partly sunny skies. The south wind will also make sure dew points will go into the middle 60s and make sure that unstable air will work into the area. Normally, this would lead to rapid t-storm development as we head into the late afternoon and into the evening hours. However, look at the Future Track below. Look at how it doesn’t show a lot of explosive t-storm development.

That’s because we’ll have an area of warm air aloft for much of the day and even into the start of Tuesday evening. We always call it the cap whenever we talk about a potential severe setup. You need the cap to allow for the warmth, moisture and instability to build. Once the cap weakens, all of that will rise up and get t-storms going. However, all indications we have indicate that the cap will be quite strong that moisture won’t be able to break through. That’s why we only have a slight chance for a few showers (maybe a few t-storms) late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. If any t-storms can get going and break on through the cap, we’ll have to watch them carefully for a hail, wind and tornado threat.

The next best shot for t-storms will head on in early Wednesday morning from the west along the next cold front. That line of t-storms should be on a weakening trend as they sneak into our western counties after 2 or 3 AM Wednesday. As the front passes through, the line will redevelop on top of the region. The Future Track by 11 AM Wednesday below backs up our thinking on that.

From 5 AM until we hit 1 o’clock Wednesday afternoon, we’ll keep an eye on the redeveloping line of t-storms. The main issues with the strongest of those t-storms will be wind gusts and some hail. Once we get past 1 o’clock, the front will send the storms into the rest of Missouri and Arkansas and continue to strengthen even more to pose a greater severe threat east of the area.

Before the front can cool us down late Wednesday afternoon, we’ll have our highs early in the day around 62°. We’ll hold steady around that number before the cold front can drop us back into the 50s very late in the day. Beyond Wednesday, we’re looking dry for our Thursday under partly sunny skies. After a cold start in the upper 30s in the morning, we’ll see highs bounce back near 60° for the afternoon. Once we get into the upcoming Easter weekend, we’ll have to watch for a few systems coming from the west. The first could bring some scattered t-storms during the afternoon and evening hours on Good Friday. It will be a mild day, though, with highs around 70°.

The departing wave will keep mostly cloudy skies and the chance for some scattered showers around for Saturday. It will be a chilly Saturday with highs in the upper 50s across the region. Another wave will bring some isolated t-storm chances back in late Easter Sunday afternoon and scattered t-storms Sunday night and into Monday. That wave will also take us from highs in the middle 60s on Sunday to highs in the upper 50s for Monday. Doug’s long range forecast through the rest of the month and through the middle of May is down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

April 19th-23rd:  Slowly warming back up through the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances returning on Thursday and Friday.  Those also could be strong to severe.

April 24th-30th:  Our temperatures look mainly mild for this week. We’ll watch for t-storm chances Sunday, slight t-storm chances Wednesday, slight t-storm chances Thursday and t-storm chances Friday.

May 1st-7th:  A warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, most likely severe.  Thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, also most likely severe.

May 8th-14th:  A warm storm with thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, most likely severe.  Cooler for the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures back in the rest of the week with  thunderstorms by the weekend.

May 15th-21st:  Cooler start to the week with thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.  We warm up toward the weekend with Saturday thunderstorms, most likely severe.

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