Good early Saturday morning, everyone. Even though we stayed cold for our Friday, we did see temperatures improve as we kicked off the first full weekend of 2022. As our last storm system cleared out after giving us some snow on Thursday, we were lucky to see afternoon temperatures that day climb back into the upper teens and lower 20s. After our cold start with lows in the lower teens on our Friday, we at least got highs back above freezing as we topped out in the middle to upper 30s.
Looking at our weather setup, we have a warm front coming out of the Rockies and into the Plains. That’s what will kick our south wind back into gear today and force temperatures upward once again across the area. After that warm front passes, we’ll deal with the two cold fronts as they’ll merge into one and pass through for Sunday.
Upstairs, we have two upper-level waves riding along the jet stream. We have the first wave coming out of western Kansas and another wave that will follow suit once it comes out of California and Nevada.
The first wave coming out of western Kansas is what’s bringing in clouds back in from the south. As far as temperatures go, we’re starting out with lows already in the upper 20s to near 30. As more moisture gets pulled in, we’ll see areas of drizzle develop as we get closer to sunrise. With some areas around or just below freezing (even though the south wind will start warming us up) for this morning, some areas could actually start with some freezing drizzle. The window of opportunity for freezing drizzle, though, will be relatively short. Given how some areas will be above freezing by 6 AM and the rest of the area will be above freezing after 8 or 9 AM, we’re only expecting a few hundredths of an inch of ice.
While the day starts with areas of drizzle, we’ll see actual chances for showers picking up late in the morning and certainly for the afternoon ahead. Despite that and plenty of cloud cover, the south wind will be in action to send us into the middle to upper 40s for highs this afternoon.
The two cold fronts out to our west will combine and work on through as we head toward the midnight hour and through our early Sunday morning. Before the front passes, we’ll be at our warmest point for our Sunday. That means midnight highs around 45 in Joplin and upper 30s to middle 40s for much of the region. We’ll still have scattered showers around to start the overnight out. Fortunately, I expect the rain chances to pretty much be gone by the time we drop back into the lower 30s for Sunday morning.
While the departing cold front will clear the rain chances out of here and bring partly sunny skies back in for the afternoon, it will be a cold afternoon with temperatures in the upper 30s across much of the region.
As for how much rain we could see before we dry out by Sunday afternoon, the expected amounts will stay on the light side. We aren’t expecting more than a quarter of an inch of rain across the area.
Beyond this weekend, we’ll have another warming trend get going on Monday and take us through the rest of the upcoming week. Even though a developing upper-level ridge out to the west won’t be so pronounced as we work into early next week, you can see how that will push the jet stream back just to our north. With mostly sunny skies for both Monday and Tuesday, we’ll have highs in the middle 40s on Monday before we climb back into the lower 50s on Tuesday.
While we’ll have highs staying in the 50s Wednesday through Friday, we’ll see another change on the way. After a quiet and mostly cloudy Wednesday, we’ll watch for another wave to come our way from the west. As it works in for Thursday and Friday, that will bring rain chances back our way.
Check out the long range below to get a detailed look at when thunderstorms and snow chances will be over the next several weeks based off Doug’s Pattern. Have a great Saturday!
Nick
Next Saturday: Turning colder with rain chances.
Jan. 16th-22nd: Mainly a cold week as the arctic air will continue to flirt with us. Slight chances for snow on Monday and then again Wednesday. Rain or snow chances as well on Friday, but these are all weaker waves so we will have to see if anything can come together.
Jan. 23rd-29th: A chilly start but right back to mild early in the week. Slight rain chances on Monday but better chances for rain or snow on Friday as we cool back down.
Jan 30th-Feb 5th: Cool the first half of the week but a mild second half of the week. Slight rain chances on Thursday and Saturday.
Feb 6th-12th: Mainly a cool week with rain chances Monday and snow chances on Tuesday. Thunderstorms and mild temperatures by the weekend.
Feb 13th-19th: Sunday turning colder with rain or snow chances. Warming through the week with thunderstorms Thursday and Friday with colder air working in that could finish with snow.
Feb 20th-26: Mainly a cool and dry week with rain and snow chances on Thursday.