Good Monday evening, everyone. As advertised, it was certainly nice to see plenty of sunshine and open blue skies return to kick off the first work week of 2022. It certainly helped us out with temperatures after a downright cold Sunday across the area. After seeing highs yesterday in the middle 20s and lows in the middle teens this morning, it felt good to be back above freezing and back near normal with highs in the middle 40s in Joplin and across the area.
Even though we kept things nice and quiet today, we are watching some changes to the weather setup trying to take shape. The surface map below shows that the southerly wind in control this evening will remain in place as we head into tomorrow. While the areas of high pressure will continue to slide off to the east, we’re watching for our next Canadian cold front to come our way from the north and northwest. Before it gets here, the strengthening front will cause our southerly wind to pick up for our Tuesday.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, we did see the jet park itself back on top of the region. That allowed temperatures to finally climb back above freezing and near normal. We’ll briefly be on the warmer side of the jet for Tuesday before the upper-level low coming into the Pacific Northwest will come into play.
While we do stay quiet overnight and to start Tuesday morning out, some clouds will develop out to the west and start to roll into our western counties. We’ll all start with mostly clear skies for Tuesday with the south wind picking up at 5-15 mph. That will only allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to near 30 as the AM commute gets underway.
Even with skies bouncing back and forth between partly sunny and mostly cloudy skies during the day, the south wind will continue to pick up between 15 and 25 mph with some gusts higher thant that. That will make sure that we’ll start the afternoon out in the middle 40s and top out in the upper 40s to near 50 across the area.
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will work on through during the early morning hours. That, with mostly cloudy skies, will make sure we turn colder once again for the day. After morning lows start in the upper 20s, most of us will be in the middle to upper 30s for Wednesday afternoon.
While there will only be enough moisture with the front on Wednesday to keep us mostly cloudy, it’s still setting the stage for an upper-level wave on Thursday. With the cold front making sure that we’re cold enough at the surface and aloft, the main upper-level wave in the Pacific Northwest will actually spin some energy off in the form of another wave that will come out of Montana and the Northern Plains. As it slides in, it will work with more moisture and lift to bring in scattered snow showers for Thursday morning. Once we get into the afternoon, the fast moving wave will clear to the east and take the snow chances with it.
In terms of how much snow we could see with Thursday’s system, an early look at amounts show that any accumulations would be minor. Even though the wave will move through relatively quickly and any developing snow may over come some dry pockets as it falls to the surface, there could be some bursts of light to moderate snow that can try to accumulate. Even with that being the case, any expected accumulations would stay under an inch for those that see the snow. Nonetheless, the wave will make sure we stay cold with highs only in the 20s for Thursday.
After Thursday’s wave, we’ll see partly sunny skies return to allow temperatures to climb back near 40 as we kick off the weekend. While the weekend starts dry, another system wants to head our way as we work into late Saturday and Sunday morning. You can see how that system wants to bring rain chances back into the region down below.
Not only will that system bring some rain chances our way for part of the upcoming weekend, it will send another blast of colder air our way. After we see highs push into the upper 50s on Saturday, Sunday will go from early morning highs in the upper 50s into the 30s for Sunday afternoon. At least we’ll be dry for next Monday as we stay cold in the upper 30s. Doug has you covered with his long range forecast through the rest of the month down below.
Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
Nick
Jan. 11th-15th: Chilly for the first half of the week. Rain and snow chances Wednesday. Cold and dry for the rest of the week.
Jan. 16th-22nd: Mainly chilly for this week. Slight rain chances on Monday and Friday.
Jan. 23rd-30th: Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. This could mix with a little snow on Tuesday. Then a chilly week with warmer temperatures by the weekend with rain chances.