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Another weak wave with rain chances for Wednesday – Nick

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. As advertised, we kicked off our Tuesday with our frontal system and upper-level energy bringing in widespread rain and t-storms this morning. According to radar estimates, the rain amounts we saw today averaged out to just under half an inch across the area. You can see, however that we had a good number of locations pick up rain amounts between half an inch and almost up to 2 inches with the heavier pockets of rain that passed on through.

While clouds with any rain chances would hold back temperatures from warming up, we did have a warm front come into play today. Once we got past the rain and saw the skies turn partly to mostly sunny this afternoon, we went from the middle 40s to upper 40s this morning to highs in the middle to upper 60s today. That’s around 10 degrees warmer compared to our Monday afternoon temperatures.

Looking at our weather setup, the frontal system that came in today has shifted to our east. Right on it’s heels, though, we have another front coming in from the northwest that will play a role in our forecast Wednesday.

At the jet stream level, the upper-level low centered over Utah and Arizona is ready to send another weak wave our way along the jet. That will also come into play on our Wednesday.

With both systems coming together, we’ll go from the mostly clear skies we had to start the evening out to mostly cloudy skies as we get our Wednesday AM drive underway. We’ll be dry to start the morning out, though, with lows ranging from the upper 20s in our northwestern counties to upper 30s back around the Joplin area and for areas along and south of I-44.

The frontal boundary will continue to bisect the area from northeast to southwest through the morning and into the start of the afternoon. Once we get into the middle of the morning, that’s when the upper-level energy from the weak wave coming in will get scattered rain showers going for areas along and south of the I-44 corridor.

While the rain chances will continue for some as the afternoon gets underway, we’ll see the vast majority of the rain taper off as we get through the rest of the day. Mostly cloudy skies will also hold on for the rest of the day as the front will keep highs in the 40s and 50s northwest of Joplin. Everyone else will top out around 60°.

In terms of the rain on the way, it won’t be as heavy as what we saw this morning. Still, any rain that can accumulate will stay under half an inch for areas along and south of I-44.

Thursday will stay dry under mostly cloudy skies. It will also be a bit chilly with highs in the upper 50s after we start the day in the middle 30s. Now, let’s talk about New Year’s Weekend. For New Year’s Eve, we’ll have highs pushing back into the lower 60s as mostly cloudy skies build back in ahead of a stronger storm system coming in from the west. We’ll see that system get some scattered showers and even a couple of t-storms going late Friday afternoon and into Friday evening.

With the way things look, Saturday will start out with bands of rain and t-storms on top of the area. As the Arctic Front works in from the northwest, the rapidly dropping temperatures will mean rain chances for areas along/south of I-44 and a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow for areas northwest of Joplin during the day. This activity will start clearing out as we head into Saturday evening. Temperatures with this passing front will go from early morning highs in the 40s and drop into the 20s for the afternoon.

We still have some time to watch and see how this system will play out. If it can track a little farther to the north, that will mean more rain for the area. If it can track south a little bit, more snow for more of us. One thing that is certain behind this system is how cold it will get for our first Sunday of 2022. After lows drop into the single digits Sunday morning, we’ll have highs topping out in the upper 20s for the afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we will trend a bit warmer for Monday and Tuesday of next week under partly to mostly sunny skies. We’ll have highs in the upper 40s on Monday and back near 50° on Tuesday. Doug has your updated long range forecast down below.

Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

Jan. 5th-8th:  Mild with rain chances Wednesday. Turning colder for the rest of the week. Rain or snow chances Thursday.

Jan. 9th-15th: Chilly for the first half of the week. Rain and snow chances Monday and Wednesday. Cold and dry for the rest of the week.

Jan. 16th-22nd: Mainly chilly for this week. Slight rain chances on Monday and Friday.

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