Good Monday evening, everyone. As advertised, we had partly to mostly sunny skies across the area as we got this new work week (shortened for some of you) underway. It certainly was a bit chillier behind our cold front that came through last night. Compared to yesterday, we had a cold start in the upper 20s to near 30°. Even though it was chilly, we did manage to warm up into the middle 50s this afternoon.
Let’s break down our weather setup. At the surface, our last cold front is well to the east working across eastern Canada and into the Atlantic. A little area of high pressure is helping to keep our southerly breeze in place for tonight and as we head into our Tuesday. Our eyes, however, are focused on our next front off to the west.
That next front won’t come in until the upper-level low in the Pacific can finally start working across the Pacific Northwest and the Plains. That won’t happen until we can get the upper-level ridge to break down. It stays in place to keep us quiet for Tuesday.
As for temperatures, it will be another cold start for our Tuesday as lows will drop back near 37° in Joplin and the immediate Joplin Metro. Outside of the metro, the rest of the area will drop into the middle to upper 30s overnight.
With mostly sunny skies locked in for Tuesday and a south breeze at 5-15 mph, we’ll have no problem warming back up throughout the day. We’ll quickly push into the upper 50s by the noon hour and top out in the lower to middle 60s across the region (62° for Joplin).
Heading into Wednesday, that’s when our next system will start to shake things up a little. We’ll see skies start turning mostly cloudy Tuesday night and certainly for Wednesday morning. We’ll be dry during the morning and for a good portion of the afternoon. The clouds will only allow temperatures to go from 50° in the morning to afternoon highs around 63°. Once we hit the late afternoon, that’s when the front and the upper-level wave will start to get some scattered showers going across parts of the area.
This incoming front and wave will really get periods of showers and t-storms going as we head into Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. These t-storms won’t be strong, but they will be around for those that will be traveling Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. It won’t be just local travel that the rain could impact. The rain will stretch from eastern Oklahoma northeastward through St. Louis and into Indiana.
While the t-storms and showers won’t turn severe, we could see some accumulating rainfall with this system. Our northwestern areas could see on average between a quarter and half an inch. Everyone else could see rain amounts range between half an inch and an inch of rainfall before the system clears out.
When will this system clear out? Just in time for Thanksgiving. While some scattered showers could still be lingering in southwestern Missouri by 6 AM, most of the rain will be out of here. It will be cold to start the day with lows around 38°. For the rest of the day, we’ll see skies go from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny as we head into the afternoon. Behind the front, it will be quite cooler with highs around 46°.
The rest of the holiday weekend is looking dry as we keep partly sunny skies in place. You can see below how the jet stream will look for Friday and the rest of the weekend in general. We’ll stay chilly for Friday with highs in the middle 50s before we climb back near 60° on Saturday.
The jet stream setup below shows how we’ll look as we head into the new week ahead of us. After another chilly and quiet day with highs in the middle 50s for Sunday, the returning jet will lift back to our north and northeast. That will send us back into the middle 60s under partly sunny skies on Monday.
Doug has you covered with his updated long range forecast out. It will take you all the way out to Christmas Day down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
Nick
November 30th-December 4th: Staying mild for the rest of the week. Dry until rain chances return for Friday and Saturday.
December 5th-11th: We’ll start with a chilly Sunday and a mild Monday. A system will bring rain chances for Monday and force us to turn cold for Tuesday. Staying active with rain chances Wednesday through Friday and showers for Saturday. Mild Wednesday through Friday before we turn cooler Saturday.
December 12th-18th: Cold for Sunday before we see cool air return Monday. Mild Tuesday through Thursday before we turn cooler again for Friday and Saturday. We’ll watch for slight rain chances Thursday.
December 19th-25th: Mild for Sunday and Monday before cooler air returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Briefly mild for Thursday before we turn cold for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. We’ll watch for rain chances Sunday and Monday to start the week. Rain chances on Thursday will switch to snow chances for Christmas Eve and snow showers for Christmas Day.