Be ready for rain chances and a cool down for Wednesday – Nick

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. After our mild Monday across the area, we were actually treated to a warm day. With lows this morning in the lower 50s, the south wind and partly to mostly sunny skies allowed temperatures to soar into the upper 70s across much of the region. Keep in mind that our normal high for this part of November is 58°. It’s not common for a warm November day like this to come along.

Hopefully, you all had a chance to enjoy some of the warmth outside today. It will not be anywhere near this warm for tomorrow, especially during the afternoon. The changing weather setup has our next cold front itching to hop across the Nebraska/Kansas line to our northwest. That’s the next cold front on the way here with rain chances eager to develop along and ahead of the front. Behind it, cooler air is more than eager to start working back in. Ahead of the front, the southerly wind is one component that led to our warm day.

At the jet stream level, the current position of the jet to the north is another big reason why we were quite warm today. With the next wave coming across the Rockies and the Plains, that will push the next front through and push the jet back to our south over the next few days. As the jet sinks back to the south, that will allow cooler air to work back in.

In terms of how temperatures will fare for Wednesday, have a look at the map below. Temperatures in the middle 60s to 67° will be the warmest that we’ll get for our entire Wednesday as skies continue to thicken up.

By the time we get into our Wednesday AM drive, everyone will be cloudy as the cold front starts to push on in. Along the front, some of our northern counties could see showers as early as the morning drive. Areas ahead of the front will have temperatures holding in the lower 60s at 6 AM.

As we work through the rest of the day, the front will not waste any time passing through the rest of the area. As it does, we’ll continue with scattered showers along and even some behind the passing cold front. As more of the area taps into the returning northerly breeze behind the front, temperatures will do nothing but drop for the rest of the day. By the noon hour, most areas will be in the middle to upper 50s.

By Wednesday afternoon, the cold front will be outside of the area and will continue on across the rest of Missouri and Arkansas. While some scattered showers will still be around, the cloud cover and the northerly breeze will continue to drag in the cooler air. By late afternoon, most areas will be in the lower 50s. We wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some upper 40s before the evening rush got underway.

The skies will dry out and clear out as we work throughout Wednesday evening and into Thursday morning. However, that and a light north breeze at 5-10 mph will mean lows Thursday morning dropping back into the lower 30s. While Thursday will be a sunny day, the northwest breeze will keep temperatures near 50° for the afternoon. That will be about a 30° drop from what we saw today.

Looking at the weekend, we’ll keep quiet partly sunny for both Friday and Saturday. You can see how the jet stream setup for Friday shows the jet back near the region. Once we get past another cold start near 30° Friday morning, we’ll head back into the middle 50s for Friday afternoon. With the jet lifting back to the north for Saturday, we’ll have lows in the lower 40s and highs back in the lower 60s.

The only fly in the ointment is a fast upper-level wave that will pass nearby on Sunday. While the core of this wave will stay in Canada northeast of Minneapolis, it will be just strong enough to send some scattered showers our way under mostly cloudy skies as we wrap up the weekend. With rain chances and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures won’t have much wiggle room for Sunday. We’ll expect lows in the lower 50s and highs only to top out in the upper 50s.

Heading into the start of Thanksgiving Week, you can see how the wave forces the jet back to our south once again while we stay dry under partly sunny skies. After Monday starts cold with lows in the middle 30s, we’ll have highs bounce back into the lower 50s. By Tuesday, the jet will hop back to our north and allow highs to climb back into the upper 50s under continued partly sunny skies.

Doug has you covered with his updated long range forecast out to Christmas Day down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

November 23rd-27th: Mild Wednesday before we turn cooler for the rest of the week. Rain chances for Wednesday.

November 28th-December 4th: Mild start with rain Monday through Wednesday. Cooling down for the middle of the week. Back to mild temperatures Friday and Saturday with t-storms returning.

December 5th-11th: Cold for the first half of the week. Mild for the second half. Rain on Friday and Saturday.

December 12th-18th: Mainly cool for this week. Showers on Tuesday. Rain Thursday and rain/snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

December 19th-25th: Mainly a cold week. Snow showers to watch Tuesday and Thursday.

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