Clouds back in action as we stay mild Tuesday – Nick

Good late Monday evening, everyone. We kept things on the quiet side once again as we got the new work/school week underway all across the area today. We also saw our warming trend continue once again for today. After yesterday’s highs in the lower 70s, we actually had a warm day with highs in the middle 70s after our start in the lower 50s this morning.

Let’s break down our setup because changes are ready to work back in. At the surface, we have our cold/stationary front working in from the northwest. Even though it’s approaching, we still found ourselves on the warm side of the system with a south wind in place. That south wind is due to high pressure sitting over the Southeastern US.

Looking upstairs at the jet stream level, our upper-level ridge that kept us a bit warm and quiet today is starting to slide off to the east into the Gulf of Mexico. That change will start to allow upper-level energy from the west to start riding in along the jet.

For the rest of the night, we’ll keep quiet under partly cloudy skies. With a lighter south breeze at 5-15 mph, we’ll have overnight lows drop back and hold into the middle 50s across the region.

While the day starts dry, the front and the upper-level energy could allow for a few sprinkles or a few quick showers to pop up in a few spots as we go into our Tuesday afternoon. For most areas, we’ll stay dry for the day. The increased cloud cover will bring temperatures back down. However, we’ll stay mild as highs push back into the middle to upper 60s.

The skies will stay mostly cloudy for Tuesday night with a stray sprinkle or shower still possible. With that setup holding for the overnight, that will allow lows to only drop back into the upper 50s for Wednesday morning. Mostly cloudy skies will stick around throughout our Wednesday as highs climb back into the upper 60s. While most spots will be dry for the day, the next front coming in from the west will develop rain and t-storms out in western and central Kansas.

Those rain and t-storm chances will work in very late in the afternoon and certainly for our Wednesday evening. While these storms could be strong with heavy rainfall, some minor wind gusts and some very small hail, we aren’t expecting anything severe.

Those t-storm chances will clear out early on our Thursday morning before we head back to work and school. In terms of expected rain amounts, most of us will range between half an inch and an inch of rain.

Behind the front, we’ll turn partly to mostly sunny throughout our Veterans Day. However, we’ll turn quite a bit cooler compared to our mild (even a bit warm) temperatures we started the week out with. Highs will only top out in the upper 50s after we started in the middle 40s Thursday. For the upcoming weekend, you can see how the jet is positioned well to our south. This setup, under partly sunny skies, will mean lows around 40° and highs around 51° for your Friday.

The jet stream setup below shows how we’ll fare for both Saturday and Sunday. Mostly sunny skies for Saturday will take us from a cold start around 31° to afternoon highs back in the middle 50s. Despite another increase in cloud cover Sunday, we’ll have lows in the upper 40s and highs back around 60° to wrap up the weekend.

Next Monday, we’ll have partly sunny skies get the new work/school week started with lows around 32° and highs around 54°. Doug has you covered with his long range forecast through early December (including the Thanksgiving Holiday) down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

November 16th-20th: Dry for much of the week until some rain chances return Friday and Saturday. We’ll stay on the chilly side for Tuesday. We’ll turn mild Wednesday and stay mild for the rest of the week.

November 21st-27th: Rain chances Sunday and Monday as temperatures stay mild. Chilly Tuesday before we keep cool Wednesday through Saturday. Dry Tuesday before we see rain chances return Wednesday, Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Drying out again by Saturday.

November 28th-December 4th: Up and down temperatures this week. Chilly Sunday with mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Cool Wednesday before we turn mild again Thursday and Friday. Turning much cooler for Saturday. We’ll watch for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A stronger system will give us rain on Thursday, thunderstorms on Friday and a chance for rain or snow by Saturday.

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