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Cold start Thursday before we warm back up – Nick

Good late Wednesday evening, everyone. As advertised, we started the day out with plenty of cloud cover and some scattered rain skirting across some of our southern and western counties. After the last of the rain chances cleared out, some peaks of returning sun took temperatures into the lower 50s for afternoon highs. That’s not only an improvement from the upper 40s yesterday and lows near 40° this morning. These highs in the lower 50s were more than welcome after we were expecting another afternoon only in the upper 40s.

While our mostly cloudy skies continue to turn partly cloudy throughout the night to make sure we keep quiet, it’ll also make sure we’ll start Thursday off on a cold note. In fact, frost advisories are out for much of southeast Kansas. Plus, freeze warnings are out for much of southwest Missouri and back down to Grand Lake. These advisories and warnings are out until 9 AM Thursday.

The reason for the partial clearing and the cold night ahead of us can be found at the surface and upstairs at the jet stream level. At the surface, our area of high pressure is working across the northern parts of the St. Louis area before it crosses over the Mississippi River. That’s eroding some of the cloud cover and keeping the breeze light as we head into the night.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, the wave that brought in some rain chances to start the day has moved on into the Deep South. Before the upper-level ridge centered over the Baja Peninsula heads our way and brings milder temperatures back in, we still find ourselves on the cooler side of the jet.

With the setup in place for tonight, it will be quite cold no matter where you are across the area. You can see on the Future Track below, how most spots will drop back into the lower to middle 30s with some as low as 32 and as high as 36 or 37. These are number that will pop up overnight and hold as we head toward the Thursday morning drive.

Once we get past our cold start, partly sunny skies and a light south wind will send temperatures upward throughout the day. We’ll have temperatures in the upper 40s by the noon hour and afternoon highs topping out around 53° in Joplin. Outlying areas will top out in the lower 50s (a few middle 50s southwest of Joplin).

With mostly clear skies working in for Thursday night and Friday morning, that will send lows back into the middle 30s across the area. Once we get past that frosty start to our Friday, we’ll have highs eager to bounce back into the middle 50s during the afternoon. That should be doable with mostly sunny skies during much of the day and even with some partly sunny skies trying to sneak in late in the afternoon.

The rest of the weekend is still looking pretty good. With mostly sunny skies Saturday, partly sunny skies Sunday and the jet stream working back on top of the region, this is what will allow mild temperatures to return. After lows near 40° Saturday morning and 46° Sunday morning, we’ll top out in the lower 60s on Saturday and upper 60s on Sunday.

Going into next week, we’ll stay mild as the center of the ridge shifts over Houston. Even with partly sunny skies, we’ll stay dry for Monday with lows in the lower 50s and highs pushing into the lower 70s.

Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll have our next best shot for rain and t-storms come our way as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. With an upper-level low coming in from the west by that time, the rain chances and mostly cloudy skies will force temperatures each afternoon back into the middle to upper 60s.

Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out to the Thanksgiving weekend down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!

Nick

November 11th-13th:  Rain Thursday while temperatures turn cooler. Back to mild temperatures by the weekend as we stay dry for Friday and Saturday.

November 14th-20th:  Starting mild with rain or t-storms on Sunday. Showers on Monday and Thursday. Much cooler for the rest of the work/school week. Mild again by the weekend.

November 21st-27th: Mild for the first half of the week. Cool for the rest of the week. Rain chances Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving.

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