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Rain chances will start clearing out Wednesday – Nick

Good late Tuesday evening, everyone. Mother Nature played the same song and dance once again with our weather today. While the day started dry before some scattered rain worked back in, the cloud cover kept us cool and definitely cooler than normal. It’s a trend that continued from our Monday. After we started out with lows in the upper 30s and near 40°, we topped out at 47° at Joplin Regional this afternoon. While quite a bit cooler than our normal highs in the middle 60s, it’s a slight improvement from the middle 40s the other day.

The rain chances we’ve seen for the past few days have not amounted to much. While we weren’t concerned about heavy rainfall, the accumulated rain has averaged out to just under a quarter of an inch for those that have seen the rain.

We are tracking some changes for the better as we continue on into the forecast, though. Starting at the surface, we have an area of high pressure working across northern Missouri. Its sole purpose is keeping our northeasterly breeze in place for the overnight and an easterly breeze in place for our Wednesday.

The main culprit for our continued cloud cover and rain chances lies upstairs at the jet stream level. The same upper-level wave that was sitting out over California and Nevada is working across the state of Kansas. While it was cold enough to get a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain across western Kansas, it brought the rain chances back in play while the cloud cover stayed in place.

With this wave still passing by, we’ll hold on to cloud cover across the entire area and rain chances for the southern and western parts of the area. This setup will allow lows to drop back into the upper 30s to near 40° once again as we get our Wednesday morning started.

After rain chances start the morning out, the wave will start moving on to our south and southeast. The departure of the wave will clear the rain chances out through the rest of the morning and leave us dry for Wednesday afternoon. While the returning peaks of sun will be nice to see throughout the day, mostly cloudy skies will only allow highs to push back into the upper 40s to near 50° for the afternoon.

While we keep quiet for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the key to our lows for Thursday morning will be how the cloud cover will set up. With partly cloudy skies expected, I expect lows to only drop back into the middle 30s for Thursday morning. While that isn’t freeze criteria, this could be our first frost of the fall season.

Once we get past a cold start, returning partly sunny skies and a returning southwest breeze will finally allow temperatures to start climbing back up. While Thursday afternoon’s highs around 52° will still be below normal, it’s still a definite step in the right direction.

Not only will more sunshine and a returning southerly breeze by the end of the week help warm us back up, so will the jet stream setup. After this current wave clears out, the jet stream will start heading back in our direction as an upper-level ridge builds in across western parts of Mexico. With mostly sunny skies Friday, that will send highs back into the middle 50s. We just need to watch Friday morning closely. With mostly clear skies to start the day, we have a chance for most of us to start in the middle 30s once again for another shot at some morning frost. If a few spots can drop close to 32° Friday morning, that could be our first light freeze for the season for a few spots.

We’re looking great for the rest of the weekend. With the jet stream lifting back to our north and mostly sunny skies for both Saturday and Sunday, we’ll have highs back in the lower 60s on Saturday and upper 60s on Sunday.

Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll get next week started on a mild note with highs in the upper 60s for Monday and lower 70s by Tuesday. While we’ll stay dry for Monday, we’ll watch for another wave out west. You can see where it will be Monday afternoon down below. While it may send mostly cloudy skies and a few showers our way by Tuesday, we’ll see that wave bring in our next best shot for rain by Wednesday and Thursday.

Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out to the Thanksgiving weekend down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

November 10th-13th:  Rain Wednesday and Thursday while temperatures turn cooler. Back to mild temperatures by the weekend as we stay dry for Friday and Saturday.

November 14th-20th:  Starting mild with rain or t-storms on Sunday. Showers on Monday and Thursday. Much cooler for the rest of the work/school week. Mild again by the weekend.

November 21st-27th: Mild for the first half of the week. Cool for the rest of the week. Rain chances Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving.

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