Good late Friday evening, everyone. No matter what our weather is up to, it’s always nice to get a new weekend underway. However, we started this weekend out like we did the previous weekend. We stayed hot and humid once again this afternoon in Joplin and across the area. After highs topped out near 95 on Thursday, we started out in the lower 70s this morning before we bounced back to about 96 for our Friday afternoon. With the humidity still fairly high, it felt like the triple digits once again across the area for the afternoon.
I know this has become a broken record that everyone is tired of hearing, but excessive heat warnings and heat advisories will remain in place for Saturday. Once they expire at 9 PM, though, we’ll see two fronts and a change in our weather setup that will get these out of here as we kick off August next week.
Looking at the overall weather setup, we actually have our first frontal boundary draped across Missouri from northwest to southeast into the Bootheel. Any t-storms that develop throughout the night to our north and northeast will stay along the front and away from our area. That trailing cold front and the second cold front in the Northern Plains both come into play starting late Saturday afternoon.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn upper-level ridge that kept us hot and humid since last weekend will remain in control for one more day. Once we get into Saturday night and certainly into Sunday, the ridge will start to retreat back to the west and give us a much-needed break from the heat and humidity.
For the rest of the night and into Saturday morning, any t-storms along the warm front will stay to our north and east. While we may see some passing cloud cover at times from those t-storms, we’ll stay dry and warm as lows plan on dropping back into the middle 70s.
Our Saturday morning will stay dry and so will much of our Saturday afternoon. While the first cold front will start working in from the north by late afternoon, most of us will still end up hot and humid for the afternoon. With partly sunny skies, we’ll have highs topping out around 96 once again for Saturday afternoon. While the Future Track does show a few isolated t-storms trying to pop up in our far northern counties, most of the area will stay dry throughout the afternoon.
Now, the thermometer will say 96° once again as we hit the peak heating of the afternoon. When you factor in the high dew points that will still be in play (into the 70s), it will make the temperatures feel as hot as 102° to 109° across the region.
If you recall from the prior Future Track, a few isolated t-storms will try to develop in our far northern counties as early as 4 o’clock in the afternoon. As the first cold front rolls on in from the north, it will start to introduce more scattered t-storms to start Saturday evening out. You can see how the scattered t-storms caused by the first front will still be around as we head toward 10 o’clock Saturday night. However, it doesn’t quite cool us down yet as temperatures will still be near 80 by the 10 o’clock hour.
As the second front rolls in overnight and into Sunday morning, that will bring in some more scattered t-storms across parts of the region. These t-storm chances for Saturday evening through Sunday morning could be on the strong side with pockets of heavy rain, some wind gusts and some possible small hail. While we aren’t expecting these t-storms to turn severe, we’ll still keep an eye on things as these t-storm chances roll on through.
Fortunately, our rain chances for Sunday will just be limited to the morning hours. Once we get past the morning, we’ll dry out for the afternoon. Not only that, we’ll have lower humidity and highs in the middle 80s to enjoy as we wrap up the weekend.
In terms of the rain chances and possible amounts, the rain tracker is suggesting that most spots across the area will pick up between a tenth and half an inch on average from Saturday evening’s and Sunday morning’s rain and t-storms. However, any heavier pockets of rain could push some areas between half an inch and possibly up to 2 inches. That’s something we’ll keep an eye on as well before we dry out Sunday afternoon.
After the weekend is all said and done, look at the upper-level setup for Monday down below. The digging upper-level trough and lows digging across the eastern half of the Lower 48 will push the ridge back to the west. This will lead to lows in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s for a beautiful Monday. As this setup holds through Wednesday, this will keep lows in the lower 60s and highs in the lower to middle 80s. Couple that with lower humidity, we’re definitely going to enjoy that.
By the end of next week, though, the upper-level trough to the east will want to start working to the east. As it does, that will give the upper-level ridge a chance to start building back in. While any weak waves around the returning ridge could try to bring some isolated t-storm chances back in by Thursday and Friday, this will ultimately push highs back into the upper 80s and possibly near 90 by the start of next weekend.
Don’t forget that Doug has your long range forecast through August and into early September down below.
Have a good night and enjoy your weekend!
Next Saturday: We’ll stay in the upper 80s to near 90 with some t-storm chances possible.
August 8th-14th: The first half of the week will be hot with the second half warm with mainly 80s. However, scattered thunderstorm chances each day.
August 15th-21st: A warm start to the week and then a hot finish. Isolated storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by Saturday.
August 22nd-28th: Mainly a warm week with isolated storms Tuesday through Thursday.
August 29th-September 4th: A warm work week but hot into the weekend. Thunderstorm chances Sunday, Monday and Thursday.
September 5th-11th: A hot start then back to warm the second half of the week. Scattered storms Tuesday through Saturday.