Good late Thursday night/early Friday morning, everyone. It was the same story once again as another day comes to a close this week. After a warm start in the middle 70s Thursday morning, we went back into the middle 90s across the region. Joplin hit a high of 95° for Thursday, which is just a nudge lower compared to the high of 96° on Wednesday. Even with that slightest drop in temperatures, the humidity still made it feel like it was between 100 and 109 during the afternoon.
Even though it was a quiet day under partly to mostly sunny skies, we had excessive heat warnings and heat advisories in place during the day. Since the heat and humidity will stay quite high once again for Friday, the excessive heat warnings and heat advisories have been extended into Friday evening.
Looking at the overall weather setup, our next front has worked into northern Missouri. While it fired up some scattered t-storms in northern Missouri late Thursday evening, they didn’t have a chance to head our way. Before that front sweeps through here, we’ll stay on the hot side for the next few days with a weak area of high pressure keeping a light southerly breeze in place.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’re still sitting underneath the upper-level ridge with the center of the ridge right over western Kansas. Fortunately, this setup will start to change for the better as we roll from Saturday into Sunday.
While it will stay quiet across the area under mostly clear skies overnight, we’ll get a slight break from the heat and some of the humidity as we get your Friday morning started. Even with a light south breeze at 5 mph, we’ll only see lows drop back into the middle 70s.
Even with some partly sunny skies passing along during the day just like on Thursday, we’ll waste no time going right back into the heat and high humidity throughout the afternoon. We’ll stay quiet during the day as highs push back near 96° across the entire area.
Now, the thermometer will say 96° as we head into the afternoon. When you factor in the high dew points that will still be in play (into the 70s), it will make the temperatures feel as hot as 102° to 109° during the peak heating of the afternoon.
For Saturday, we’ll spend the majority of the day on the hot side of the front once again. Highs will top out around 95° with the humidity making it feel like it’ll be between 102 and 108 in the middle of the afternoon.
However, we’ll start to see changes push in late Saturday afternoon and certainly going into Saturday night. The upper-level ridge starts retreating to the west. As it does, that will allow the cold front to start pushing in. As it does, we’ll have a chance for scattered t-storms to develop as early as 4 or 5 o’clock on Saturday and continue into Sunday morning. While these t-storms could have a chance to become a bit strong with some heavy rain and some wind gusts over 40 mph, we aren’t seeing this coming together as a severe setup. We’ll still keep an eye on it over the next few days.
Once the front and the rain chances clear out after Sunday morning, we’ll have warm temperatures, lower humidity and partly sunny skies to look forward to for the afternoon. After lows drop back near 70° for Sunday morning, we’ll have highs only top out in the middle 80s. The upper-level setup is looking much better for Monday. With us back on the relatively drier and cooler side of the jet, we’ll have a nice Monday lined up under partly sunny skies. After morning lows in the middle 60s, highs should top out around 83° for the afternoon.
With this setup looking to mainly hold through much of next week, we’ll keep highs in the middle 80s and lows in the middle 60s Tuesday through Thursday. While the upper-level ridge tries to build back and push the jet stream closer to us once again, any weak waves riding around the edge of the ridge could result in a few isolated t-storms Tuesday or Wednesday. Overall, we’ll look mainly dry as we head through the middle of next week.
Don’t forget that Doug has your long range forecast through August and into early September down below.
Have a good night and a great Friday.
Nick
Next Friday-Saturday: We’ll stay in the 80s as some t-storm chances return for the weekend.
August 8th-14th: The first half of the week will be hot with the second half warm with mainly 80s. However, scattered thunderstorm chances each day.
August 15th-21st: A warm start to the week and then a hot finish. Isolated storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by Saturday.
August 22nd-28th: Mainly a warm week with isolated storms Tuesday through Thursday.
August 29th-September 4th: A warm work week but hot into the weekend. Thunderstorm chances Sunday, Monday and Thursday.
September 5th-11th: A hot start then back to warm the second half of the week. Scattered storms Tuesday through Saturday.