Good early Monday morning, everyone. Our final full weekend of July has come to a close and it certainly was on the hot side throughout the stretch across the area. After seeing highs in the lower 90s on Friday and Saturday, we were on track to head into the middle 90s for Sunday afternoon. After a warm start in the middle 70s, you can see how highs went into the lower 90s during the early afternoon (92° at 12:10 PM for the official high at Joplin Regional). However, note how the temperatures dipped into the 80s for the rest of the afternoon.
That dip in temperatures was due to an outflow boundary that came at us from the north. That boundary originated from a decaying batch of t-storms out of northern and northeastern Kansas this morning. As it sank to the south, that meant most of us only saw highs in the lower 90s today instead of the middle 90s that we were projecting. While that did help us out in temperatures, it also served as a focal point for scattered t-storms late Sunday morning and into the afternoon. While we really didn’t see anything severe, the strongest rain and t-storms left behind some heavy pockets of rain. Even though the area as a whole averaged out to 0.3″ of rain, those that saw the heavier pockets pass on through lead to amounts between half an inch and 2 inches.
Even after those rain chances, the heat and humidity haven’t been scrubbed out of our atmosphere. While the only heat advisories on the board are out for northeast Oklahoma until 8 later this evening, everyone will be hot and humid once again as the new work week gets going.
Looking at our weather setup, the frontal boundary that sent the outflow and resultant rain chances our way is still parked to our north. Even though the close proximity of the front may result in a light easterly breeze for today, we are still on the warmer side of the front.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the jet is still draped from northwest to southeast across the state of Missouri. While we’ll keep an eye out for a few weak impulses that’ll ride along the jet for the next few days, the biggest feature that still stands out is the upper-level ridge building back in. The center of the ridge is reorganizing across the Rockies and Southern Plains. However, this will be the main player in the overall weather setup as we wrap up the month this week.
For this morning, we’ll all start out on a dry note underneath partly cloudy skies. Fortunately, temperatures will start out mild with lows in the lower 70s across the area.
With the stationary front still close by, that still wants to work together with our lingering heat and humidity. Along with any upper-level support, this should allow for another chance of isolated t-storms during the day (especially during the afternoon). While we don’t anticipate anything severe, anything that can develop will possibly produce some more moderate to heavy downpours. Otherwise, we’ll all head back into the lower 90s during the afternoon.
Whether you find yourself under a heat advisory or not through this upcoming evening, the humidity will be high once again all across the area. With dew points back in the lower to middle 70s, plan on the temperatures feeling like 98° to 105° during the peak heating of the afternoon.
Any showers or t-storms still present as we get this evening underway should fade away with the setting sun. That will lead to a quiet night and Tuesday morning with lows dropping back into the lower 70s. With the front planning on lifting back to the north and the ridge starting to slowly take back full control, we should have dry weather for Tuesday. Otherwise, it will stay hot and humid under partly sunny skies as highs push back near 93°.
That slight bump in temperatures for Tuesday and high humidity still in place will still make it feel like the lower triple digits across the region for the afternoon.
For Wednesday and Thursday, it’s all about the upper-level ridge taking back control. With the main upper-level high planning on parking itself over western Kansas, it will keep us dry under partly to mostly sunny skies. Plus, it will definitely keep us hot and humid with highs in the middle 90s.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, we do see the upper-level high starting to shift to our south. With that potentially showing a bit of a weakness in the ridge, that could allow for a few isolated t-storms for Friday. Otherwise, we’ll continue to stay hot with highs in the middle 90s under partly sunny skies for both Friday and Saturday.
By Sunday, the Future Track wants to show an interesting setup that could try to take place. With a possible upper-level low trying to develop over Utah and a stronger upper-level digging across eastern Canada and down into parts of the eastern US, that could try to force the ridge to buckle down and push some of the heat back to our south. While this setup could lead to some isolated t-storms for Sunday afternoon, it’ll still keep us on the hot side with highs in the lower 90s.
If you’re curious about how we look for August and early September, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Monday!
Nick
August 2nd-7th: Stay hot with mainly 90s most of the week. I do think we will drop back into the 80s for Friday and Saturday. Isolated storms Tuesday through Friday.
August 8th-14th: The first half of the week will be hot with a warm second half of the week. Isolated pop up storms just about each and every day.
August 15th-21st: A warm start to the week and then a hot finish. Isolated storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by Saturday.
August 22nd-28th: Mainly a warm week with isolated storms Tuesday through Thursday.
August 29th-September 4th: A warm work week but hot into the weekend. Thunderstorm chances Sunday, Monday and Thursday.
September 5th-11th: A hot start then back to warm the second half of the week. Scattered storms Tuesday through Saturday.