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Latest updated blog – Warming trend continues for Thursday – Nick

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Even though we had to deal with partly sunny skies (and some lingering haze at times) throughout the day, our warming trend continued once again across the region. After a little dip back into the middle 80s (84 at Joplin Regional), we pushed back into the upper 80s (87 for Joplin) once we got past a mild start in the middle 60s.

Breaking down our weather setup, the surface map doesn’t have any big systems in play around here. A little area of high pressure is still trying to hold on just to our north. That being said, it was still strong enough to keep us quiet, dry and warm for today. Plus, it was still strong enough to keep a stalled out front to our north and another front with better rain and t-storm chances to our east and southeast.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, we can see how the main jet stream has actually started to shift across the region toward the northeast. While that will result in a slightly warmer Thursday, the upper-level low that gave some of us scattered rain on Monday is sitting across central Texas. This will actually edge a little closer to us for Thursday before we really see the upper ridge out west start to take back control as we head into the weekend.

With skies staying mostly clear through the night and a light breeze staying in place, we’ll see mild temperatures return for Thursday morning. However, it will a bit warmer compared to this morning as lows for Thursday will start out in the upper 60s.

Despite a light southerly breeze and some returning partly sunny skies during the day, we’ll continue to trend a little warmer with Thursday afternoon highs projected to top out in the upper 80s. It’s even possible that a spot or two could touch 90 before the day is all said and done. With that upper-level low in Texas edging a little closer to us for Thursday, some energy from that low will result in a few isolated t-storms for our southern counties during the afternoon. Most other spots will end up staying on the dry side.

After another mild start in the upper 60s for Friday morning, we’ll see the heat kick back in for Friday afternoon as highs will top out right at or around 90 across the region. Even though some partly sunny skies will be around for the day, any isolated t-storm chances will stay south and east of the region.

The t-storm chances pushing to our east and the returning heat will all be due to the upper-level low moving into the Desert Southwest and the upper-level ridge building back into the region. That setup in the upper levels for Friday will hold for Saturday and keep highs in the lower 90s.

While the upper-level ridge is mainly in control for Sunday, we’ll watch for any weaknesses in the ridge as we head into the final week of July. Sunday looks like an example where a weakness in the ridge could present itself. If so, a weak disturbance riding along the edge of the ridge could allow for an isolated shower or t-storm to work in for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll definitely start feeling the heat and humidity kick back in with highs topping out in the middle 90s.

The Future Track setup for Tuesday below shows how much of the first part of the week (through Wednesday) will shape up. While we will be under the control of the upper-level ridge, the center of the ridge will shift back into southeastern Colorado. That means we’ll find ourselves on the eastern edge of the ridge with the jet stream not too far to our northeast.

The upper ridge will keep morning lows in the lower to middle 70s and highs in the middle 90s. Couple those hot afternoons with a definite return of July humidity, it will feel like the triple digits across the area each afternoon during the peak heating of the day. It wouldn’t surprise us if we started to see heat advisories go out for any part of early next week. It’s something we’ll definitely keep an eye on. However, with the jet stream close enough and any weak waves passing along the edge of the ridge, we can’t rule out at least a few isolated t-storms for each afternoon early next week. We’ll have a few things to keep a close eye on as we start to wrap up the month next week. In the meantime, Doug has your long range forecast out into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!

Nick

July 29th-31st:  We’ll stay hot as we wrap up the month. We won’t rule out the chance for a few isolated t-storms each afternoon.

August 1st-7th:  Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.

August 8th-14th:  Hot first half of the week and a warm second half.  Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.

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