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Latest updated blog – Warm Monday with some possible t-storms – Nick

Good late Sunday evening, everyone. After all the rain we have seen over the past 2 and a half to 3 days, it was nice that we had an overall dry day to wrap up this weekend. Not only did the vast majority of the area stay dry throughout the day, we took advantage of partly sunny skies and stayed warm. After middle 80s on Saturday, we went back into the middle 80s after we started in the upper 60s to near 70° this morning.

While most spots stayed dry to wrap up the weekend, we did have a few showers in some of our spots near the Missouri/Arkansas border and on the western sides of Table Rock Lake. Those, thankfully, did not add very much to our already saturated ground. Looking back at our rain from Thursday through today, it’s just remarkable how much we picked up. The entire area averaged out over 3 inches of rain, but a number of you saw that at the very least. Those that picked up the brunt of the heavy rainfall saw the totals range between 5 and 10 inches.

While it’s a good thing that any areal flooding and flash flooding concerns have left, some area rivers (Verdigris, Neosho, Marmaton, Osage and Little Osage) are still running higher than normal. While a few of these river flood warnings could start dropping off during our Monday, these will run as late as Friday as the water continues to run its course. That’s something to keep in mind as the week rolls along.

Looking at our weather setup, we are seeing changes that continue to lead to rain chances dropping off for much of this week. At the surface, the stationary front has sunk far enough south so that any widespread rain chances will stay to our south as the new work week gets going.

While the front won’t be a key player in our forecast for Monday, we are still keeping an eye on one particular feature in the upper-levels. Before we see the upper-level ridge out west start to build back in later this week, the upper-level low around St. Louis will be a factor in our forecast. Not only will it keep the heat out to our west, this could come into play in another way for Monday afternoon.

For our Monday morning, we’ll have just passing cloud cover work through while we stay dry. With a light northeast breeze at 5-10 mph, that will be enough to drop temperatures into the middle 60s to start the day out.

While we stay quiet and partly sunny for the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon out, the upper-level low will start working through southeastern and south-central Missouri. As it does, some energy from that low wants to spark some late afternoon scattered showers and t-storms and push them into parts of southwestern Missouri. I don’t see these being too strong or severe. Nor do I think that they could pose a heavy rain threat like we saw over the past couple of days. Still, it’ll be some rain chances to be mindful for as we top out in the middle 80s for the afternoon.

If any t-storms were around to start Monday evening out, they’ll fade away as we work past sunset and lose the heating of the day. After another mild start in the middle 60s for Tuesday morning, we’ll keep dry and partly sunny for the afternoon as highs bounce right back into the middle 80s.

Even though the upper-level low continues to work into parts of the Deep South and the Southern Plains on Wednesday, it will still be strong enough to keep temperatures just below normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s. By Thursday, the jet stream will start working back on top of us. That will send highs back into the upper 80s to near 90° across the region. We’ll have to watch for a possible disturbance riding along the jet for Thursday afternoon. It’ll have a slim chance to bring a few isolated t-storms our way. However, most spots look to stay dry on Thursday.

Once we hit the upcoming weekend, it looks as though dry and quiet weather will be the rule of thumb. That will be quite a 180 compared to the weekend that we just wrapped up. However, that dry stretch will be made possible by the upper-level ridge out west building back in.

While that does keep the upcoming weekend dry, that will make sure the summer heat will return as well. We have highs topping out in the lower 90s through the weekend as morning lows will certainly be mild in the lower to middle 70s. Doug has your long-range forecast out into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

July 26th-31st:  It’s looking hot and mainly dry as we wrap up the month.

August 1st-7th:  Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.

August 8th-14th:  Hot first half of the week and a warm second half.  Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.

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