Good late Monday evening, everyone. After quite a weekend with so much rain, it was nice to have most of the area stay on the dry side to start the new work week out. On top of that, we stayed warm just like the past several days. In a similar fashion to Sunday, temperatures went back into the middle 80s for this afternoon after we started in the upper 60s to near 70° this morning.
Breaking down our weather setup, the stationary front that was the big driver of our rain and t-storm chances over the weekend has pushed far enough to our south. With that and high pressure keeping the northeast breeze in place, we’ll stay quiet for tonight and for Tuesday.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’re watching an upper-level low pass to our southeast over Memphis. Energy from that low was responsible for bringing in some widely scattered showers and a few t-storms for parts of southwestern Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening. Even though this low will keep the heat off to our west, it won’t be long before the upper-level ridge out west wants to build back in.
Until the heat builds back in, we’ll stay mostly clear and mild for the overnight and to start Tuesday morning out. Everyone will start out with lows in the middle 60s before sunrise.
Under partly sunny skies for the rest of our Tuesday and with the northeast breeze in place at 5-1o mph, we’ll stay below normal once again for the day. However, we’ll top out a bit warmer for tomorrow with highs around 87°.
The upper-level ridge doesn’t build back in just yet on Wednesday, but we’ll continue to slowly warm up as we work into the middle of the week. After we start Wednesday morning out in the middle 60s we’ll push back into the upper 80s across the region for the afternoon under partly sunny skies.
Focusing on the upper-level setup for the rest of the week, the upper-level low breaks away from the jet. Once that’s out of the picture, we’ll start seeing the jet stream lift back on top of the area as the upper-level ridge starts to build back in from the west. While any possible rain chances will stay just outside of the area, we’ll stay quiet under partly sunny skies as temperatures top back out near 90°.
For Friday and Saturday as we get into the weekend, the upper-level high starts pushing back near the Colorado/Kansas state line. That will keep us quiet and partly sunny once again for both Friday and Saturday. However, that’s when the familiar summer heat and humidity will start to build back in. We’ll have highs in the lower 90s for both Friday and Saturday with each morning starting mild in the lower 70s.
Heading into next Sunday and next Monday, the upper-level ridge wants to center itself over western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. You can see how the positioning of the ridge puts the jet stream in a northwestern flow on top of us.
With this setup, we could see a few waves ride along the edge of the ridge and try to bring in some isolated t-storm chances for both Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, the upper-level ridge will definitely keep us hot with highs in the middle 90s as we work into early next week. Doug has your long-range forecast out into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
July 27th-31st: We’ll stay hot and mainly dry as we wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.