Good late Saturday evening, everyone. I want to start out with a look at temperatures before we dive into the rain. Despite the rain chances we had over the past few days, we stayed warm across the area. After seeing highs in the middle 80s yesterday, we kept at it for today after we started in the lower 70s this morning.
The main weather story has been the rain that we’ve seen over the past few days. While we know that we picked up so much rain from late Thursday and Friday, those rain chances continued for today. We had a morning round affect mainly southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma with a late afternoon/early evening round of heavy rain and t-storms affecting northeast Oklahoma and southwest of Missouri along and south of I-44. Altogether, the entire area saw rain amounts average out around an inch for our Saturday.
For this evening, the focus was certainly in our southern counties along and south of I-44. As the t-storms got going, we had a few severe t-storm warnings for Newton County for 60 mph wind gusts and some hail up to the size of quarters. All that storm did in terms of wind was knock a large tent down outside of Neosho. Fortunately, no one was inside when the storm came through. However, parts of Newton, Lawrence, Barry and McDonald counties saw 1 to 4 inches of rain this evening. While that doesn’t seem like much, that fell within a span of three hours on top of already saturated ground. That led to numerous street flooding reports especially in parts of Newton and McDonald counties late this evening.
All this rain has resulted in flash flood warnings for these areas until as late as 4 AM on our Sunday. Otherwise, local area rivers are still riding higher than normal and flash flood watches remain in place for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas until 1 o’clock Sunday afternoon.
Our latest look at the weather setup doesn’t show a big change at the surface. The stationary front that helped keep our rain chances going today is still parked on top of the region. On top of that, it covers quite a bit of real estate beyond our area. It stretches as far west as the Pacific Northwest and as far east as Upper New England.
The upper-level setup still shows the upper-level ridge out to our west centered over the Southern Rockies. Back here, we have another upper-level low developing north of St. Louis. That will also play a role in our forecast for the next few days.
The rain that we saw this evening is shifting to the south. While most of us will be dry for much of the overnight, we can’t rule out a few isolated showers or t-storms in southwest Missouri by sunrise. Otherwise, skies will bounce between partly and mostly cloudy as we drop back near 70° to start Sunday AM out.
Once we get into Sunday afternoon, the upper-level low will work together with the stationary front to bring some t-storm chances back in play. However, it’s looking like isolated to widely scattered t-storms will be an issue for southwestern Missouri until we get to sunset. It will be another warm and humid afternoon with highs topping out in the middle 80s once again.
After we drop back into the middle 60s for Monday morning, we’ll bounce back into the lower to middle 80s once again with some scattered t-storms possible for Monday aftenroon.
Once we hit Tuesday, though, we’ll start to see changes that lead us to more dry time that we really need. That upper-level low that’s getting its act together north of St. Louis? It will work to the southwest. Not only will that take away some of the upper-level lift to aid in t-storm chances, it will also push our front well enough south to push the rain chances out of here. That means we’ll be partly sunny from start to finish for both Tuesday and Wednesday as highs stay mainly in the middle 80s.
By Thursday, the upper-level setup will keep on changing things up around here. Not only will the jet stream start working back our way, we’ll watch for a few waves coming in from the northwest. That wants to bring some scattered t-storms our way for Thursday while we start pushing highs back into the upper 80s.
While we have dry weather in store for next weekend, we’ll definitely have the summer air back in play as the upper-level ridge starts to take some control back. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, that will result in highs back near 90° for Friday and Saturday.
Doug has your long-range forecast out into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday.
July 25th-31st: We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.