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Latest updated blog – Warm Saturday with more rain chances – Nick

Good early Saturday morning, everyone. This turned out to be quite a start to our weekend. After seeing highs in the upper 80s to near 90° on Thursday, our Friday started out with temperatures in the upper 60s before they topped out in the lower to middle 80s for the afternoon.

We were able to get into the 80s yesterday after we got the all of the rain and t-storms out of here from Thursday afternoon and into Friday morning. While a few of the t-storms were strong enough to go severe for 60 mph winds and some quarter-size hail, the big story was all the rain that we picked up. The radar estimates average out to over 2 inches across the area, but we had areas in southeast Kansas and areas between Fort Scott and Nevada see anywhere between 3 and 10 inches in total.

In the hardest hit areas of southeast Kansas, all this rain resulted in at least 13 water rescues and some impassible roads through Friday morning.

While any flash flooding concerns subsided throughout our Friday, areal flood warnings continue for Woodson, Wilson, Neosho, Labette and Montgomery counties until 10:15 this morning. However, some area rivers like the Verdigris, Neosho, Osage, and Marmaton Rivers will stay higher than normal until the middle of next week at the latest. All of these we’ll continue to watch as we continue through the rest of the weekend.

While rain is the last things many of us need, we aren’t seeing a big change in our overall weather setup. The frontal boundary to help trigger the t-storms from Thursday and Friday is still parked right on top of the area.

Not only that, the upper-level setup continues to show our upper low slowly moving away from the St. Louis area. Even if that clears out for Saturday, weak waves riding along the jet will continue to keep scattered t-storms in the forecast through the rest of the weekend.

Through the early morning hours and up to sunrise, we’ll have isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms around. Some will be capable of some moderate to heavy rainfall, but not on the scale of what we saw Thursday night and Friday morning. With the dry time in between under mostly cloudy skies, we’ll have lows drop back near 70°.

While the rest of the morning may have some isolated t-storms, we’ll see them pick up in coverage during the afternoon. While we won’t have any severe weather to worry about, the strongest t-storms could produce some moderate to heavy rainfall. While it won’t rain all the time throughout the day, we’ll have partly sunny skies to encourage temperatures to warm back up into the middle 80s for this afternoon.

Latest indications show that this evening will start with some scattered t-storms before we dry out for the overnight hours. After partly cloudy skies tonight will drop lows back into the upper 60s, we’ll see highs back in the middle 80s under partly sunny skies for Sunday afternoon. While the Future Track doesn’t show any rain on top of us during Sunday afternoon, I still expect some scattered t-storms to develop for parts of the area.

In terms of rain potential over through Sunday, much of the area should average out between a tenth and three quarters of an inch. If anyone falls underneath some moderate to heavy pockets of rain, the totals could push between 1 and 2 inches before we wrap up the weekend.

While the stationary front sticks with us for Monday, look at the upper-level setup. Another upper-level low will develop and sink back over the St. Louis area. That will keep scattered t-storms in the forecast and highs in the middle 80s for Monday afternoon.

As we head through Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper-level actually wants to shift to our southwest back into the Southern Plains. While this would keep scattered t-storms in the forecast, it will actually cause the chances to start dropping off since it will start pushing the stationary front to our south. We’ll keep skies partly sunny for Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s and middle 80s for Wednesday.

While it will be nice to dry out by Thursday and next Friday, the upper-level setup will start to look like it usually does for middle to late July. While that low drifts off into the Desert Southwest, the upper-level ridge out west pushes the jet stream back to our east. That will mean highs bouncing back into the upper 80s for Thursday and near 90° for Friday.

Doug has your long range forecast out into the middle of August down below. Have a great Saturday!

Nick

Next Saturday: A bit hot with some scattered t-storms possible.

July 25th-31st:  We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.

August 1st-7th:  Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.

August 8th-14th:  Hot first half of the week and a warm second half.  Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.

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