Good Tuesday evening, everyone. While we kept quiet under mostly sunny skies from start to finish, that and a returning southerly breeze meant temperatures wasted no time warming up today. While it was nice to see highs in the upper 70s yesterday (and rare that we saw numbers like that for a day in the middle of July), we saw number jump back into the upper 80s after a mild start this morning.
Looking at our weather setup, we still don’t have too much happening in the immediate area. High pressure well to our east and a warm front that will pass just to our west are both keeping the southerly wind in place for Wednesday. You can’t help but notice (in addition to the warm front out to our west) how another frontal system is also working into the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. That will bring some severe weather for parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin before it heads closer to us pretty soon.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, our upper-level low is working over Michigan and into the eastern part of the Great Lakes. While it would appear that the upper-level ridge out west would be ready to work back in, look across the Nevada/Utah line. That’s our next upper-level wave developing and wanting to head our way as we get into Thursday.
The jet stream will shift to our north as we work into our Wednesday. That will bring some familiar summer heat back into play. Before it can, though, we’ll enjoy another quiet and mild night with lows dropping into the upper 60s under mostly clear skies with a light south breeze at 5-10 mph.
With another quiet day lined up, the mostly sunny skies and southwest breeze at 10-15 mph will send temperatures upward without any fuss. Most of us will see temperatures in the middle 80s by noon and highs back in the upper 90s for the afternoon.
After another mild night with lows dropping back into the lower 70s for Thursday morning, most of us will head back into the lower 90s for Thursday afternoon. However, Thursday will be the day that we’ll watch for the frontal system to the north to park itself across northern Kansas and northern Missouri. Plus, the upper-level wave will also start approaching from the west. That will lead to partly sunny skies to start the afternoon out and some scattered t-storms for some of our counties by late afternoon.
While some scattered t-storms will start to develop for some late Thursday afternoon, the upper-level wave will drive more widespread t-storms our way Thursday night and into Friday morning. So far, these t-storm chances look to be just strong with heavy rainfall being the biggest issue on the board. To its credit, it will send temperatures down into the lower 70s to start Friday morning out.
With the front still parked to the north even as the upper-level wave starts to work to our east, we’ll still hold on to some scattered t-storms for Friday afternoon. These rain chances will take the edge off the heat a little and drop highs back into the upper 80s as our weekend gets going.
Despite the upper-level wave planning on jetting out for Saturday and Sunday, we’ll still have weak waves riding along the jet stream as it either sits on top of the area or shifts slowly back to our southwest. With that and the stationary front still in play, we’ll have scattered t-storm chances for both Saturday and Sunday. With some dry time for both days, though, you will have the chance to enjoy some time outside as highs will top out in the upper 80s.
Heading into early next week, the front will start to finally push through the region as another upper-level low wants to develop and park right on top of the region. If this stays in the forecast, we’ll hold on to scattered t-storm chances Monday and Tuesday as highs will only go up into the middle 80s.
With all these rain chances lining up, we’ll need to keep an eye on rainfall amounts. Even though we’ve had some time to dry out after all the rain we saw not too long ago, we have the chance to see anywhere between 1 and 4 inches by the time we head into Monday.
Doug has you covered with his long range forecast into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
July 20th-24th: The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Wednesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. We’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.
July 25th-31st: We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.