Good Monday evening, everyone. After a weekend with scattered strong to severe t-storms on Saturday and rain chances on Sunday, we backed things down to a few random showers on the Missouri side as our last storm system continues to move on. While most spots stayed dry throughout the day, the cloud cover was a bit stubborn to move on. Even though we did see skies turn partly sunny by the start of this evening, temperatures at Joplin Regional only topped out around 77° while the rest of the area made due with middle to upper 70s. We’ll take it when you consider that we should be right around 90° for a normal high and warmer temperatures are knocking on the door.
Looking at our weather setup, our last frontal system is finally pushing well enough to the east to lose its influence over our weather. While it will be a nice night with high pressure keeping skies mostly clear and the breeze very light, it will move off to the east as we work into tomorrow. That will start to warm us up while we keep an eye on our next front off to our northwest.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level low is moving off to the northeast. While we don’t have any immediate waves riding along the jet stream, the returning jet stream will also aid in our warmer temperatures lined up for Tuesday.
Before we see the thermometer rise for our Tuesday afternoon, it will be a very nice night with mostly clear skies and a light breeze that will start to switch out of the south. With the humidity staying in check, we’ll have lows drop into the lower 60s for Tuesday morning.
Even though it will look nice with mostly sunny skies from start to finish, plan on a warmer afternoon across the region. While much of the area will top out in the upper 80s for the afternoon, some spots west of Joplin could flirt with the 90° mark before the day is all said and done. Even if the thermometer may stay in the upper 80s, a slight uptick in the humidity may make it feel like the lower 90s during the afternoon.
While we’ll enjoy another quiet and mild Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as lows drop back into the upper 60s, we’ll head back into the summer heat under mostly sunny skies for Wednesday. With highs back in the lower 90s for Wednesday, the humidity in place will make it feel like the middle 90s during the afternoon.
Beyond Wednesday, our focus will be on not just our next front that will work toward the northern borders of Kansas and Missouri. It will also be another upper-level wave that will develop and work in on Thursday. While we stay a bit on the hot side with highs in the lower 90s, we’ll introduce chances for scattered rain and t-storms Thursday afternoon.
After both systems keep scattered t-storms in play for Friday with highs still around 90°, you can see that the upper-level wave will move to the northeast as we roll into Saturday. However, the stationary front will still stay parked just to our north and close enough to keep scattered t-storm chances in the forecast for Saturday. It will be another hot day with highs around 90°.
As we wrap up the weekend and head into Monday, a stronger upper-level low will start to dig across the Northeast and push the jet back to our southwest. With the stationary front still in play and any weak disturbances riding along the jet, we’ll hold on to the chance for isolated to scattered t-storms for both Sunday and Monday with highs dropping back into the middle to upper 80s.
While rain chances are returning within the next few days, it’s important to note that these aren’t rain chances that will last all day long. There will be dry time in between these rain chances that you can certainly take advantage of. We’ll continue to keep watch and adjust the forecast as needed over the next several days. Doug has you covered with his long range forecast into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
July 19th-24th: The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Wednesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. With Tuesday being an exception, we’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.
July 25th-31st: We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.