Good late Sunday evening, everyone. After dealing with a front that brought some scattered strong to severe t-storms for parts of the area the other day, we dealt with the backside of this storm system today as we wrapped up our weekend. While the morning started out dry, we saw the scattered showers pick up late in the morning and continue off and on until we hit sunset. While we didn’t have to deal with any strong or severe t-storms, the strongest of the showers produced some moderate to heavy rainfall. While the area averaged out to just over a quarter of an inch, areas that saw the moderate to heavy rainfall at times pushed total amounts between half an inch and just over 2 inches for the day.
While we dealt with the scattered showers throughout the day, it was refreshing and a bit unusual to see temperatures this far below normal in the middle of July. Normally, we should have highs right at 90° across the area. The past few days have been quite a bit different as this storm system passed on through. After seeing highs in the middle 80s in Joplin and other areas in the upper 80s on Saturday, we had highs top out in the middle to upper 70s across the region today. It felt more like the middle of May instead of the middle of July.
Looking at our weather setup, the backside of our storm system will continue to push off to the east. We’ll have our breeze stay out of north courtesy of the flow around the departing low pressure and from high pressure up north. Down the road, we’ll have to watch for the next front to come at us from the northwest. We’ll hold off on that, though, until we get closer to the end of the week.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level low has been sitting over St. Louis for much of the day. Even though it will slowly start pushing off to the northeast for Monday, it will still be in control of our temperatures and our sky conditions. That will keep us cooler than normal for the next few days before the upper-level low between Edmonton and Billings starts to bring rain chances back our way.
While we keep dry to start Monday morning out under mostly cloudy skies, it will be a cooler than normal start to the day with lows in many spots around 64°. There’s a chance for some of our western areas to start out in the lower 60s before we hit sunrise.
The upper-level low staying in control will keep highs below normal once again. With a north and northwest breeze at 5-1o mph under eventual partly sunny skies, we’ll see highs around 80° instead of near 90° like we usually see on a normal July 12th. That being said, the upper-level low wants to try and send some energy our way. While that may be enough to bring a random shower or t-storm in our eastern counties for the afternoon, the current thinking is that the vast majority of our area will remain on the dry side.
After any of the slightest chance for an early evening shower or t-storm clears out before sunset, we’ll see mostly clear skies take hold. Even though we’ll have a light southerly breeze return, we’ll still have a nice night as lows will drop back into the middle 60s. Under mostly sunny skies and with the jet stream returning from the southwest as the upper-level low departs, we’ll definitely see a warm up for Tuesday afternoon. We’ll still be below our normal high of 90°, but it will definitely be a warm Tuesday afternoon with highs back in the upper 80s.
Beyond Tuesday, we’ll be back in the summer heat for Wednesday as some part of the upper-level ridge out west tries to gain back some control. We’ll stay dry and partly sunny for Wednesday as highs bounce back into the lower 90s across the area. While we stay dry for Wednesday, we’ll be keeping an eye on our next upper-level wave coming from the Northern Plains.
While Thursday starts dry, we’ll see skies turning mostly cloudy throughout the day and we’ll also see some scattered t-storms try to work in by late afternoon. That will be due to the upper low starting to kick in and our next front begin its approach for the northern borders of Kansas and Missouri. You can see from the Future Track below that the better chances of rain and t-storms with this system will be on Friday. Even with this front and this wave in action, we’ll keep highs fairly warm (if not a bit hot) between the upper 80s and the lower 90s.
For the rest of the upcoming weekend, we’ll keep the temperatures in place as highs will range between the upper 80s and the lower 90s. As for the sky conditions, the upper-level low will depart into the northern Great Lakes. However, the frontal boundary will be stalled out to our north. Couple that with a northwest flow in the jet stream and a few weak impulses to watch, we’ll have to leave isolated t-storm chances in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday.
Doug has you covered with his long range forecast into the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
July 18th-24th: The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Tuesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. With Tuesday being an exception, we’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.
July 25th-31st: We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.