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Latest updated blog – Warm with some t-storm chances Sunday – Nick

Good early Sunday morning, everyone. Saturday turned out to be another warm and humid day across the region. That warmth and humidity worked together with our incoming cold front yesterday to bring in a few rounds of showers and t-storms. The rain from Saturday morning and from the afternoon/evening batches of t-storms has added up across the region. According to radar estimates, the area averaged out to just under an inch for our Saturday. While some didn’t see anything, those that saw much rainfall saw amounts push between an inch and 4 inches at the heaviest.

During our Saturday afternoon and evening, we watched strong to severe develop out across southeast Kansas west of US 59 and dive into northeastern Oklahoma. While those areas were where the severe t-storm warnings were during the afternoon and into the evening, they did produce some storm reports along the journey. When the storms were getting organized around Wichita, they snapped a few power poles south of Leon near US 400 and dropped some golf-ball size hail. When the storms neared the KS/OK line and jumped into Green Country, the storms reorganized to the point that wind gusts were the primary hazard. We saw wind gusts push up to 65 mph at that point and some minor wind damage reports pop up as they worked closer to the Will Rogers Turnpike.

Despite the batches of showers and t-storms that passed on through parts of the area, we did warm up throughout our Saturday afternoon. While it was certainly cooler than the highs in the lower 90s on Friday, we did see temperatures push into the middle 80s at Joplin Regional during the afternoon. While the humidity made it feel like were pushing near 90° around Joplin, other parts of the area actually saw highs push into the middle to upper 80s for the day.

Looking at our weather setup, the cold front that gave us the chance for strong to severe t-storms yesterday is continuing to push to our southeast. While high pressure out in the Northern Plains will keep a more northerly wind in place for today, we’ll still have to deal with the backside of this storm system for today as well. The focus will be on the center of low pressure over St. Louis. That’s what will keep some wrap-around moisture in play for today.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level low sitting over Iowa also aided in our t-storm chances for Saturday. Even though it will slowly start to lift away over the next few days, it will stay close for today to keep temperatures below normal and help keep some rain chances in the forecast.

While we do have some t-storms around for the very early morning hours, we still expect the entire area to be dry by the time we get to sunrise. With partly to mostly cloudy skies in place and a northwest breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll see lows dropping into the middle 60s to start the day out.

The wrap-around moisture on the backside of our storm system will keep skies mostly cloudy throughout the day and keep some scattered t-storms around especially for late this morning and into the afternoon. It’s important to note that it won’t be raining all day. There will be some dry time to be had. Any t-storms that develop will stay below severe levels, but will still be capable of some moderate to heavy rainfall at times. With all these factors in play, we’re only expecting temperatures to top out in the upper 70s across the area for today.

Once we get past sunset, the departing system and the departing heat of the day will result in a quiet and dry night as we wrap up our Sunday. Partly cloudy skies will allow lows to drop back into the lower to middle 60s before we see highs warm back up into the lower 80s. While we’ll hold on to partly sunny skies for Monday, the upper-level low will still be close enough to keep the slightest chance for a shower or t-storms in play for Monday afternoon. The vast majority of the area, though, will get through Monday on a dry note.

In terms of additional rainfall through tonight, parts of the area are fair game to see another tenth of an inch to half an inch of rain on average. If some more moderate to heavy pockets of rain can materialize and work through, an additional inch could be possible for a few spots.

Looking beyond Monday, we’ll stay for Tuesday while our upper-level low starts working into the Great Lakes. Even though it’ll start moving on, it will still keep the brunt of the summer heat away. The returning jet stream, though, does mean that temperatures will start to bounce back into the upper 80s for Tuesday afternoon.

After another dry Wednesday with highs pushing back near 90°, we’ll focus on our next upper-level wave that will come in from the west and northwest. That will cause another slow moving front to work into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri by Thursday and Friday. While this setup will start to bring scattered t-storm chances back in for Thursday and Friday, that will still keep us very warm with highs in the upper 80s to near 90°.

While the stationary front wants to stay close by for Saturday, the upper-level wave will move off well to our east. Even though the upper-level support will move on, we won’t rule out the slightest chance for a shower or t-storm as we work into Saturday afternoon. With the jet stream up to our north for Saturday, we’ll see highs back in the lower 90s.

Doug has you covered with his long range forecast into the middle of August down below. Have a great Sunday!

Nick

July 18th-24th:  The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Tuesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. With Tuesday being an exception, we’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.

July 25th-31st:  We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.

August 1st-7th:  Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.

August 8th-14th:  Hot first half of the week and a warm second half.  Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.

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