Good early Wednesday morning, everyone. We certainly had another warm Tuesday across the area with highs topping out in the upper 80s. After we started out in the upper 60s Tuesday morning, Joplin Regional hit a high of 88° for the afternoon (the same high compared to Monday). While the dew points mainly stayed in the middle 60s, it did feel like we were close 90° in some spots during the afterrnoon.
Breaking down our weather setup, we have some changes set to work in for today. At the surface, we have been watching our next front to the northwest for the past few days. While it kept any t-storm chances for Tuesday out in western Kansas and up in Minnesota and Wisconsin, it will edge closer to the region for today.
That front is working closer to the region today due to an upper-level wave riding along the edge of the upper-level ridge centered over Las Vegas. While the jet stream does stay to our north to allow highs to trend a little bit hotter today, that upper-level low will work together with the front, heat and humidity to bring t-storm chances back into the forecast.
Fortunately, we’ll keep dry for the early morning hours and as we work toward sunrise. We’ll have partly cloudy skies and lows in the middle to upper 60s with a light southeast breeze at 5-10 mph to start the morning commute out.
As the front and the upper-level low start to kick in, it is possible that a few isolated showers or t-storms could develop in our western counties as early as 10 AM. Otherwise, we’ll hold off on the better chance for scattered t-storms to kick off until we hit the noon hour as temperatures push into the middle 80s.
Once we get into the afternoon, that will be the prime time for scattered t-storms across parts of the area. While the storms aren’t expected to turn severe, the strongest showers and t-storms could certainly be capable of some heavy downpours. While those t-storms with the potential heavy downpours could temporarily drop temperatures during the afternoon, much of the area is expected to see afternoon highs today top out around 90° with a southwest breeze at 5-10 mph.
While some scattered t-storms will be around to start the evening out, we’ll see the rain chances fall apart after we get past sunset. Even though we’ll be dry as we work into Thursday morning, we’ll hold on to partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures with lows back in the upper 60s.
While the upper-level low moves on as we work into Thursday, the frontal boundary will still be hanging around close to our southern counties. While the front itself could try to spark a random shower or t-storm for Thursday afternoon, the vast majority of the area should be dry with partly sunny skies during the day. Since we’ll be on the slightly cooler side of the front, we will see that result in highs in the middle to upper 80s across the area.
With the front and the upper-level setup wanting to bring rain chances in, the rain chances for primarily Wednesday could result in some heavy downpours. While some spots won’t see a drop of rain, those that do see the rain and t-storms could see rain amounts range between a quarter of an inch to over an inch and a half with the heaviest downpours.
For Friday, the front and the jet stream temporarily lift back to the north. While that keeps us dry and partly sunny for Friday, that will mean a hot start to the weekend with highs around 90°.
For Saturday and Sunday, the setup below pretty much says it all. Another upper-level wave will really want to dig across the Upper Midwest. As it does, that will bring the front back into the area. That low and the returning front will keep periods of scattered t-storms in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. With us on the warm side of the front for Saturday, we’ll have highs in the upper 80s across the area. As the cold front pushes in for Sunday, that will drop highs back into the lower 80s.
For Monday, we’ll hold on to a chance for scattered t-storms as the front and the upper-level low will still be around. Fortunately, the setup will keep highs in the lower 80s as the new work week gets underway. However, the front and the upper-level low will lift back to our northeast for Tuesday. While that will bring mostly sunny skies back to the area, we’ll certainly notice a bump up in our temperatures. After we start in the upper 60s Tuesday morning, we’ll plan on highs topping back out in the upper 80s.
Don’t forget that Doug has his long range forecast out through the middle of August down below. Have a great Wednesday!
Nick
July 14th- 17th: Temperatures will push into the upper 80s to near 90 for the rest of the week. We’ll also keep an eye out for scattered t-storms for the rest of the week.
July 18th-24th: The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Tuesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. With Tuesday being an exception, we’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.
July 25th-31st: We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.