Good Wednesday evening, everyone. We pushed ever slightly warmer once again for the middle of this week. Even with partly sunny skies and some scattered showers and t-storms for parts of the area, we saw highs bounce back into the upper 80s this afternoon after our mild start in the upper 60s this morning.
Breaking down our weather setup, our frontal system has worked into the area today. That’s what helped push us into the upper 80s (and some spots near 90°) for highs today and allowed for scattered t-storms to develop for parts of the area.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, an upper-level low is passing over Chicago. This low helped push the front our way and aid in our scattered showers and t-storms during the afternoon. Over the next several days, we’ll actually have our the jet stream hop back and forth across the area and influence temperatures and rain chances.
The front will pass far enough to our south by Thursday morning. With that and the upper-level low losing its influence on us a little bit, we’ll notice a drop in our humidity. That will allow temperatures to drop into the middle 60s under partly cloudy skies to start the day out.
We’ll have partly to mostly sunny skies throughout the day. Even though our breeze will generally be out of the north, it will be a light breeze. That won’t stop us from topping out around 87° across much of the area. While the Future Track does want to show some isolated showers and t-storms in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas during the afternoon, the expectation is for that activity to stay south and east of the area.
After a mild start in the lower 70s for Friday morning, the front and the jet stream will lift back to our north. With that and the returning south breeze under partly sunny skies, we’ll have highs back in the lower 90s as the weekend gets started.
While the weekend will start off hot and dry, it won’t stay hot and dry for the whole weekend. Another upper-level low will really dig in from the northwest. Not only will that start forcing the jet stream back on top of us for Saturday, it will also push the front back into the area. That will mean scattered t-storms will return with partly to mostly cloudy skies for Saturday. That will keep highs in the upper 80s for Saturday afternoon.
After Saturday, we’ll only have to deal with some isolated t-storms early Sunday morning. The rest of the day will be partly sunny and nice with highs only topping out in the lower 80s. For Monday, that upper-level low will stick around but force the rain chances out of here. That means a dry and partly sunny Monday with highs staying in the lower 80s.
After Monday, temperatures will be eager to heat back up once again. Even though the center of the upper-level ridge will stay to the west, the jet stream will lift back to our north for Tuesday and Wednesday. That will push highs back into the upper 80s under partly sunny skies. Even with a bump in the humidity trying to bring some isolated t-storms our way for Wednesday, we’ll have highs top back out in the lower 90s.
Don’t forget that Doug has his long range forecast out through the middle of August down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!
July 15th- 17th: Temperatures will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the week. We’ll also keep an eye out for scattered t-storms for the rest of the week.
July 18th-24th: The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Tuesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. With Tuesday being an exception, we’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.
July 25th-31st: We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.
August 1st-7th: Hot start but then mainly a warm week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.
August 8th-14th: Hot first half of the week and a warm second half. Scattered thunderstorms chances most days.