Good early Monday morning, everyone. Hopefully, you all had a great and safe Fourth of July. Given that we’re all too familiar with how hot and humid it can get on the 4th in some years past, it was good to have a dry and warm Independence Day this time around. After we saw highs in the middle to upper 80s on Saturday and a mild start in the upper 60s Sunday morning, we saw afternoon highs bounce back into the upper 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Fortunately, dew points stayed mainly in the middle 60s this afternoon and didn’t make things feel oppressive for any outdoor plans.
Breaking down our weather setup, we still have high pressure in control at the surface. Even though it’s sliding along the Ohio River Valley, it’s keeping a light south breeze in place and will keep partly to mostly sunny skies in place for Monday. Any t-storms on Saturday stayed to our west along the decaying warm front. The next features we’ll eventually focus on will be the cold front and stationary front to our northwest.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’ll wait until the middle of the week for an upper-level low to come out of Canada and push the next two fronts our way. In the meantime, the upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners out west is in control. It’s not particularly strong, but it is strong enough to keep temperatures fairly warm (if not hot) and keep us dry for the next few days.
For our Monday, we’re looking at a repeat of our Sunday. Our morning will start off on a quiet note under some passing cloud cover. Otherwise, we’ll have a mild start with lows in the middle to upper 60s with a light southerly breeze at 5-10 mph.
After we get our morning started, we’ll have temperatures work through the 70s and push into the lower 80s by the time we hit the noon hour. With partly sunny skies turning more mostly sunny by the afternoon, that will make sure we get our highs for today back into the upper 80s. While most thermometers across the area should stay below 90°, the dew points will make it feel like we’ll be near 90° or in the lower 90s during the middle of the afternoon.
Beyond today, we’ll stay quiet once again for Tuesday as the upper-level ridge tries to maintain control. It’ll be just strong enough to keep skies partly to mostly sunny and strong enough to push highs near 90° for the afternoon.
Once we get into Wednesday, the focus will be on the upper-level low coming out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest. That will start to push the two fronts our way and bring in some scattered t-storms for Wednesday and a few isolated t-storms for Thursday. As the rain chances try to perk up and the upper-level low pushes the jet back in our direction, that will send highs back down into the middle to upper 80s for Wednesday and Thursday.
By the time we get next weekend underway, the front and the jet stream will temporarily lift back to the north. While that means a dry Friday with partly sunny skies, temperatures will push back up near 90° for the afternoon.
By Saturday, a stronger upper-level low will work into the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. That will push the front back in our direction and send mostly cloudy skies with scattered t-storm chances back into the area. This setup should actually send highs back into the lower 80s for Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday, projections show the upper-level low pushing the front through the region and keeping control of our skies. That means we’ll have to contend with some scattered t-storm chances Sunday morning before we dry out with partly sunny skies for Sunday afternoon. As far as temperatures go, we’ll be looking at lows in the middle 60s and highs topping out near 80° for next Sunday. If you missed Doug’s month long forecast from last Thursday, he has you covered with the long range forecast taking you through the rest of July down below. Have a great Monday!
July 12th- 17th: We’ll keep warm for the week with highs in the 80s. We’ll also keep an eye out for scattered t-storms just about each and every day.
July 18th-24th: The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Tuesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. With Tuesday being an exception, we’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.
July 25th-31st: We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.