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Latest updated blog – Warm & dry for the 4th this year – Nick

Good late Saturday evening/early Sunday morning, everyone. It’s nice to be back at work after spending much of this week back home catching up with family and friends. I didn’t escape the rain chances from last week, however. It was hot and humid with t-storm chances through Thursday as that same storm system impacted the St. Louis area as well. Thankfully, we all have been rewarded with a pretty good start to the holiday weekend. After highs in the middle 80s on Friday, we topped out in the middle to upper 80s Saturday afternoon once we got past morning lows in the middle to upper 60s.

Breaking down our weather setup, it certainly is nice to see a calmer setup in place after the stalled out front kept us hot and humid with the rounds of t-storms and heavy rainfall throughout the course of the week. While that front has stalled out across the Deep South and into the Southeast, we kept nice and quiet with an area of high pressure in control and right on top of the St. Louis area. Any t-storms out to our west have stayed along the warm front and won’t be an issue for us for the next few days. I am keeping an eye on the next cold front to our northwest, though.

That cold front won’t make a run toward us until we see a change in our setup at the jet stream level. We do have an upper-level ridge trying to re-establish itself and keep warming us back up. However, a weakness in the ridge and an upper-level low working across the Dakotas has allowed for the t-storms out west to develop. Those weakness in the ridge and any waves around the ridge will also come into play by the middle of the coming week.

Until that happens, let’s enjoy our Fourth of July and the rest of our holiday weekend. We’ll keep quiet for the rest of the overnight and to start our Sunday morning out. Even with partly cloudy skies and a light southerly breeze, we’ll start mild once again with lows in the upper 60s.

Under partly sunny skies and a light south breeze throughout the day, we’ll have no problem warming back up once again. Once we start the afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s, we’ll see a high of 88° in Joplin. Outlying areas will top out in the middle to upper 80s for the afternoon.

The weather continues to look pretty good for any outdoor plans Sunday evening. While the evening starts warm in the upper 80s, we’ll have temperatures dropping back into the upper 70s by the time any fireworks displays get underway. For those that get to observe the holiday on Monday, we’ll keep quiet once again under mostly sunny skies. As we continue to have our weather setup driven by the upper-level ridge out west, it will be strong enough to push the jet just to our northeast. That will mean highs in the upper 80s to near 90° for Monday afternoon after we start in the upper 60s for Monday morning.

Once we get into Tuesday and work through the middle of the week, the upper-level ridge undergoes a shift to the west. Combine that with an upper-level wave riding on the outside of the ridge and pushing our next cold front close by, we’ll see isolated to scattered t-storm chances return for Tuesday through Thursday. Despite that, we’ll stay very warm (if not a bit hot) with highs in the upper 80s to near 90°.

With the front lifting back to the north temporarily for Friday, we’ll stay dry as the upcoming weekend gest underway with highs staying hot right around 90°. However, the front returns and actually wants to sweep through late Friday night and into Saturday. Combine that with an upper-level low over the Great Lakes wanting to be an influence on our weather, that should lead to another return into the 80s by the upcoming weekend. After we see some isolated t-storms with the front late Friday night and into early Saturday morning, we’ll keep dry for the rest of our Saturday with highs only making it into the lower 80s.

If you missed Doug’s month long forecast from Thursday, he has you covered with the long range forecast taking you through the rest of July down below. Have a good night and enjoy your 4th of July!

Nick

July 11th- 17th:  We’ll keep warm for the week with highs in the 80s. We’ll also keep an eye out for scattered t-storms just about each and every day.

July 18th-24th:  The week may start warm with highs in the 80s, but we’ll see the 90s return on Tuesday and stick with us for the rest of the week. With Tuesday being an exception, we’ll have t-storm chances almost each day.

July 25th-31st:  We’ll be looking at a hot and mainly dry week to wrap up the month.

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