Good early Sunday morning, everyone. This has been a bit of an eventful weekend for most of us as far as our weather goes. After dealing with some strong to severe t-storms Friday evening, we had to deal with 2 clusters of moderate to heavy rainfall. In terms of how much the t-storms from late Friday night and Saturday morning left behind, the numbers are quite impressive. For the entire area, an average of 3.1″ has been observed. Unfortunately, you have pockets of 5 to 10 inches covering an area from Chelsea, OK to Avilla and the other area covering our northern counties once you work north of US 400. This has resulted in flood watches and flood warnings for a good portion of the region as we continue throughout the day.
While nobody asked for all this rain at once, it and our frontal system did help cool us down from the middle 90s we had to put up with Friday afternoon. After the rain dropped us into the upper 60s Saturday morning, breaks in the rain and some peaks of the sun meant highs for the day only topped out in the lower to middle 80s.
Looking at our surface setup, the front that helped bring our 2 batches of heavy rain and t-storms through is still parked on top of the area. Get used to hearing us say that through much of this week because this system will take its time to pass on through.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, it is nice that the upper-level ridge has shifted the heat back to our south and certainly off to our west. However, the stubborn upper-level low in the Dakotas will continue to send bursts of energy our way for much of this week. That, with our front at the surface, will keep rain chances in the forecast.
For today, we’ll start the morning out with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain and t-storms once again. While the rain and t-storms won’t be severe, the strongest of the showers and t-storms will bring in moderate to heavy rainfall once again. This setup will mean another mild start to our day with lows back in the upper 0s to near 70°.
After we deal with our morning rain chances, there’s a shot for most of us to catch a little break by the time we hit the noon hour. However, we’ll see additional scattered rain and t-storms develop and work on through as we head into the rest of the afternoon. With the dry time and peaks of the sun that we’ll have, it will be another warm day with highs between the upper 70s for some and middle 80s for others. These are still warm temperatures but below our normal highs in the upper 80s and certainly better than the middle 90s we saw back on Friday.
We’ll hold on to some scattered showers and t-storms for Sunday night and heading into our Monday morning. With that and mostly cloudy skies in place, we’ll have lows for Monday morning drop back into the upper 60s once again.
While we stay warm for Monday with highs in the lower to middle 80s, the front at the surface and the upper-level low will still be in play. We’ll hold on to scattered t-storm chances throughout the day and mostly cloudy skies as the new work week gets underway.
Just within the next 2 days alone, we all have the shot to see more rain that some of us probably don’t need. Nonetheless, the Rain Tracker below shows that most spots will average out between half an inch and 2.5 inches for the next 2 days. Any heavier pockets of rain will have the chance to push some rain totals over 3 inches by the time we get into Monday evening.
Don’t expect much of a change in our weather setup as we head into Tuesday. The upper-level low and the front will still remain in place to keep us mostly cloudy with scattered t-storm chances sticking around. That will keep temperatures in check as highs will top out in the lower to middle 80s for Tuesday afternoon.
After little changes in our setup for another warm Wednesday, we’ll see a shift start to take place by Thursday. The front will start to push far enough to our southeast and we’ll see the upper-level low start to weaken a little and move on into northern parts of Iowa. While we’ll still have mostly cloudy skies in place, we’ll start to see our t-storm chances slowly drop for Thursday. This setup will still keep temperatures warm and below normal with highs still in the lower to middle 80s.
By the time we get into the start of the 4th of July Weekend, this entire system will start to clear on out. While the front will continue to move off to the southeast, a strong upper-level low wants to take hold across the eastern Great Lakes. As long as that’s in the forecast, that will keep the summer heat off to our west on the other side of the jet. For your Friday, this setup means we’ll have mostly cloudy skies with a chance for some scattered t-storms in the morning. After that, we’ll start to turn partly sunny for the afternoon as highs stay in the lower to middle 80s. By Saturday, we’ll have a completely dry day to enjoy with mostly sunny skies. With that and us under the influence of the main upper-level low, we may see highs only top out in the lower 80s for a beautiful Saturday.
Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out through the middle of July down below. Have a great Sunday!
July 4th-10th: A hot and humid week with thunderstorm chances on the 4th and 5th, then again late in the week and into the weekend.
July 11th- 17th: A little cooler to start the week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. A hot middle and then warm end to the week. Thunderstorms back in the weekend of the 17th.