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Latest updated blog – Strong to severe t-storms possible Friday – Nick

Good early Friday morning, everyone. Even with some scattered t-storms in our northern counties Thursday morning and a few isolated t-storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma line in the afternoon, it was another hot and humid day across the area. After we saw highs push back near 90° on Wednesday, we went from a very mild start in the middle 70s to the middle 90s across the area for our Thursday afternoon. If you include the dew points back around 70°, it felt like the lower triple digits in spots during the afternoon.

Looking at our surface setup, it will be an interesting setup to keep an eye on as we get this weekend started. The warm front that lifted through the other day has put the brakes on to our north and stretches out into eastern and southeastern Missouri. That has led to quite a complex of t-storms to develop in northeast Kansas and Nebraska. That complex is riding along the front and working over the Mississippi River early this morning. While this front will eventually move along later today, that will only allow the next front to work in from the north.

Upstairs, the jet stream is showing quite an interesting setup as well. The upper-level ridge centered over the Deep South is trying its hardest to hold on. While it will keep us hot and humid for today, it will start to buckle down and allow more upper-level waves riding along the jet to keep the next front around and rain chances around for the next several days.

Let’s focus on today first. While we could have some scattered t-storms try to work in this morning, we’ll be keeping a close eye on our t-storm chances for later this afternoon and into tonight. The front working in from the north will work with hot, humid and unstable air and any outflow boundaries from these t-storm complexes this morning. Couple that with more upper-level energy, we have at least a low risk of severe weather covering much of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri for areas north of Greenfield and Jasper. Due to that risk, we’re making Friday an Alert Day. The t-storms we’re expecting this afternoon could be capable of damaging wind gusts, large hail and heavy rainfall. Unless we see any changes later on today, the best timing for severe weather should be between 3 PM and 11 PM.

While most spots are quiet very early this morning, the t-storms out in western and central Kansas will try to graze us in some form or fashion. Even if any of those t-storms can hold together, it would be scattered and likely not severe. That won’t change the fact that we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies to start the morning out. Couple that with a south wind at 10-20 mph, it will be a warm and muggy start with lows only in the middle to upper 70s.

After any morning rain chances, we’ll see a quiet start to the afternoon underneath partly sunny skies. However, it will set the stage for another hot and humid afternoon with highs back in the middle 90s. Factor in the humidity and it will feel like the lower triple digits once again. Once we hit 3 or 4 o’clock this afternoon, that’s when we’ll focus on our northwestern counties for scattered strong to severe t-storms to start developing.

By this evening, the expectation is for these t-storms to continue to develop and try to consolidate into a broken line or clusters of t-storms. These will certainly be strong to severe with wind and hail being the main concerns that we’ll be looking out for.

Fast forward to 11 o’clock tonight and the expectation is that our t-storm chances will continue as we head into the overnight. Unless we see any new indications, we should at least start to back off on the severe threat as we work into the start of early Saturday morning.

While we’ll star the early morning hours of our Saturday with a good shot for t-storms, we’ll see the activity back off a little as we head toward sunrise Saturday morning. With these expected t-storms, that should send lows back into the lower to middle 70s across the region.

While the expectation is to back off on any severe weather chances for the rest of the weekend, that front will be very slow to move along. Couple that with a vigorous upper-level wave that will stay parked to our northwest for Saturday and Sunday, this will keep pretty good rain and t-storm chances in the forecast. While it kind of stinks to deal with rain chances for the weekend, the rain and mostly cloudy skies for Saturday and Sunday will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s.

In terms of how much rain we can expect just for this weekend alone, the rain tracker has a pretty good baseline in terms of general rain amounts. While the bulk of the rain chances could lead to amounts ranging between 1 and 3 inches, any heavy pockets of rain could push areas over 4 inches. We’ll have to keep an eye on this and see if can lead to any possible minor flooding issues by the time we roll into Saturday and Sunday.

Our indications still show not much of a change in our weather setup as we work into early next week. While the front at the surface will still be on top of the region, the upper-level low will still have the jet stream come at us in a westerly and southwesterly direction. With that allowing upper-level energy to keep on coming, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and scattered t-storm chances for both Monday and Tuesday. That will at least keep the heat away as highs only want to climb into the lower 80s both days.

By Wednesday and Thursday of next week, the front will finally get encouraged to move along and slide to our southeast. Couple that with the upper-level low wanting to work into Canada, we’ll expect just scattered t-storms as partly sunny skies start to return. With the position of the jet, temperatures look to stay below normal with a high near 80° on Wednesday and highs in the middle 80s for Thursday.

Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out through the middle of July down below. Have a great Friday!

Nick

July 2nd-July 3rd:  Starting to heat back up as we work into the holiday weekend.  We’ll watch for some t-storm chances to try and stick with us into the holiday weekend.

July 4th-10th:  A hot and humid week with thunderstorm chances on the 4th and 5th, then again late in the week and into the weekend.

July 11th- 17th:  A little cooler to start the week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.  A hot middle and then warm end to the week.  Thunderstorms back in the weekend of the 17th.

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