Good early Thursday morning, everyone. On a day where the expectation was to keep warm with a bump in the humidity, leave it to Mother Nature to bring the summer heat and humidity back in a little earlier than expected. After enjoying a nice Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 80s with lower humidity, we had highs push back into the upper 80s and near 90° for Wednesday afternoon. Couple that with dew points back near 70° throughout the day, we had the temperatures feel like they were in the middle 90s this afternoon.
While we’ll continue to be hot and humid for the next few days, we have some interesting features in our weather setup that we’re watching. At the surface, our warm front is continuing to head our way out of the Central and Southern Plains. In Nebraska, we had strong to severe t-storms develop out ahead of a little dryline to their west. Those t-storms could come into play later this morning as they start to ride along the warm front and dive to the southeast. While we keep an eye on that, we’ll also have to watch our next cold front up to the north. That will be the better chance for more widespread rain and t-storms as we get into the weekend.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the ridge is starting to present itself once again to keep us hot and humid for today. However, the upper-level low on the California Coast has sent a wave to ride along the edge of the ridge. That impulse of energy also helped to fire up the t-storms in Nebraska and that will also try to steer the t-storms close to us later this morning.
We’ll stay on the dry side through the rest of the overnight and as our morning drive gets underway today. Otherwise, we’ll be mostly cloudy and quite mild as lows will drop back close to 74° for many locations across the area.
As we continue through our Thursday morning, our eyes will be focused on the complex of t-storms coming out of Nebraska. In some form or fashion, the storms will move through the Kansas City area first before they continue their dive to the southeast. We’ll be watching this as temperatures push near 80° by 10 AM under partly sunny skies.
While current indications want the brunt of those t-storms to work into central and eastern parts of Missouri, there is a chance for some of those t-storms to clip our corner of southwest Missouri between 10 AM and 2 PM. If they can clip our part of Missouri northeast of Joplin, we won’t expect anything severe. That could bring some heavy pockets of rain, though.
Sometimes, complexes of t-storms like the one we’re expecting to work across Missouri can leave some outflow boundaries or localized areas of lift/wind behind. If that can happen for parts of the area during the afternoon, that could lead to a few isolated t-storms during the rest of the afternoon. While we keep an eye out for that, we’ll be hot and humid once again with highs pushing back into the lower to middle 90s.
Aside from the slight chance for a few isolated t-storms early this evening, most of us will be dry for the evening and heading into the overnight. However, with our next cold front edging closer and the warm front still in central Missouri for Friday morning, that combination wants another area of t-storms to try and clip some of our northern counties before the Friday AM drive gets going. Not only that, it will be a warm start to our Friday with lows only dropping back into the middle to upper 70s.
After a chance for some t-storms to start Friday morning out, we’ll have a chance for additional scattered t-storms by late Friday afternoon and into Friday evening. Even with that, we’ll still be hot and humid with highs in the middle 90s once again.
By Saturday, the cold front starts working into the area. With that and the upper-level low not allowing this front to pass through quickly, we’ll have periods of rain and t-storms in the forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. While we aren’t expecting anything severe with this system, we can’t rule out periods of heavy rainfall that could add up in a number of spots. At least this will give us another break from the heat as highs will drop back into the middle 80s for Saturday and lower 80s for Sunday.
While that cold front moves on for Monday, another cold front will want to work in right behind it. With that second cold front and an upper-level low still in play, we’ll hold on to the chance for scattered t-storms for Monday as highs remain in the lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies.
This front will also be slow to move on. Combine that with a persistent upper-level setup keeping scattered t-storm chances around for Tuesday and Wednesday, we’ll at least keep temperatures warm and below normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
With these systems lining up through the middle of next week, there’s a chance for plenty of moisture to add up across parts of the area. While plenty could change with any heavy pockets of rain subject to move around, we can’t rule out the possibility of rain totals between today and next Wednesday to range between 1 and 3 inches on average. If heavier pockets of rain can get in, some isolated 4 inch amounts will be possible. If these rain chances can’t be properly spread out, this will be something we need to keep an eye on.
Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out through the middle of July down below. Have a great Thursday!
July 1st-July 3rd: Staying warm before we heat back up by the holiday weekend. We’ll watch for some t-storm chances to try and stick with us into the holiday weekend.
July 4th-10th: A hot and humid week with thunderstorm chances on the 4th and 5th, then again late in the week and into the weekend.
July 11th- 17th: A little cooler to start the week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. A hot middle and then warm end to the week. Thunderstorms back in the weekend of the 17th.