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Latest updated blog – Staying warm & dry for Wednesday – Nick

Good late Tuesday evening, everyone. Normally at this point in the month of June, we have to practically beg for Mother Nature to give us a nice, warm and beautiful day. After dealing with a hot and humid week last week, we were thankful that the cold front came on through and gave us a break from the heat and humidity. For our Tuesday, we had quite a chilly start with lows around 53°. That actually tied the record low set back in 1992. With low humidity and plenty of sun throughout the day, we were able to easily bounce back into the middle 80s this afternoon.

Looking at our weather setup, we have a bit of an interesting look at the surface. With high pressure off to our east, that’s what allowed our light southerly breeze to return today. To our immediate north, there’s a weak stationary front that served to fire up some strong to severe t-storms up in Nebraska and Iowa. Those t-storms will not play a role in our forecast. I’m watching the warm front to our southwest for the next few days. As it works closer tomorrow and through the region for Thursday and Friday, that will continue to warm temperatures up. To the north in Canada, we’re watching our next cold front that will bring in better rain chances for the coming weekend.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, we still find ourselves on the milder side of the jet. However, the upper-level ridge will try to build back in over the next few days. That will also aid temperatures in warming up some more as we head toward the start of the weekend.

For the overnight and Wednesday morning, we will continue to cool down a bit. While it won’t be as chilly as it was this morning, a light south breeze and mostly clear skies will let temperatures drop back into the lower 60s to start the AM drive out.

With partly to mostly sunny skies and a south wind at 10-20 mph heading into the afternoon, we’ll continue our warming trend across the area. Most spots will top out in the middle 80s for Wednesday afternoon with a slight bump in the humidity. It will still be a pretty good day, overall, for any outdoor plans.

Around the edge of the returning ridge, indications want to show a cluster of t-storms wanting to come out of western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas during the overnight hours and heading into Thursday morning. While that is something we’ll keep an eye on to see if it can hold together and head our way, we’ll throw in the chance for a few of those t-storms to come in by sunrise Thursday morning. Otherwise, it will be quite mild (if not a bit warm) with lows dropping into the middle 70s.

Thursday will definitely be a hot and humid day as highs will top out in the lower 90s for much of the area. Underneath partly sunny skies and ahead of the warm front that will be just to our west, that will try to fire off some isolated t-storms during the day.

For Friday, we’ll find ourselves just on the warmer side of the jet once again. While that keeps highs in the lower to middle 90s for Friday, an upper-level low will force the cold front out of Canada to come our way and start ramping up our t-storm chances for Friday afternoon.

Once that cold front starts working in on Friday, it won’t be in a big hurry to move along. With it planning to be on top of the area for Saturday and Sunday, those days will have the best chances for rain and t-storms before the front pushes off to our southeast on Monday. Even though we’ll have to put up with rain chances for the weekend, that will send highs for Saturday and Sunday back into the lower to middle 80s.

While the next cold front doesn’t look like it’ll bring any severe weather our way, there’s a chance for some heavy rainfall to work through. The earliest projections we have show this front could push projected rain amounts by next Monday morning anywhere between an inch and three inches. This is something else we’ll have to keep an eye on over the next several days.

While the front will move away from the region for Monday and Tuesday, we won’t rule out a stray shower for Monday afternoon and some scattered t-storms for Tuesday. With the upper-levels showing us on the milder side of the jet for early next week, we’ll have highs as a result stay in the middle 80s across the area.

Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out through the middle of July down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

June 30th-July 3rd:  Staying warm before we heat back up by the holiday weekend.  We’ll watch for t-storm chances to return by Thursday into the holiday weekend.

July 4th-10th:  A hot and humid week with thunderstorm chances on the 4th and 5th, then again late in the week and into the weekend.

July 11th- 17th:  A little cooler to start the week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.  A hot middle and then warm end to the week.  Thunderstorms back in the weekend of the 17th.

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