Good early Monday morning, everyone. We kept things on the dry side for this past weekend. However, it certainly felt like summer with highs ranging between the lower to middle 90s throughout the course of the weekend. While the southerly breeze helped us out by dropping highs to about 90° on Saturday, we went back into the lower to middle 90s Sunday afternoon after a mild start in the lower 70s.
Fortunately, the weather setup continues to signal a much-needed break from the summer heat as we get the new work week started. Not only do we have one cold front on the way, another cold front will follow right behind it from the north. The first cold front is serving to ramp up our rain and t-storm chances for our Monday. While the second front itself may not properly pass through here late in the afternoon, high pressure building in behind that front will make sure we see a cool down through the middle of the week.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, it’s also nice to see a proper change take place. The upper-level ridge that was in control last week has been forced back into the Desert Southwest. Not only has that allowed the jet stream to work back on top of the area, that also will allow the upper levels and the upper low to send our next 2 cold fronts our way.
We’ll notice the change in temperatures right away as we head out the door this morning. While we did see midnight highs in the lower 80s, the first front coming through will keep scattered rain and t-storms in the forecast as we get the AM drive started. Plus, it will drop temperatures back into the upper 60s across much of the area.
Even though the first cold front will be out of the area before the afternoon begins, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and periods of scattered rain and t-storms throughout the morning. While nothing severe is expected, anything strong will mainly result in moderate to heavy rainfall. The second cold front will graze us just to the northeast, but the northerly breeze kicking in will mean temperatures in the middle 60s for the start of the afternoon.
With our rain chances starting to clear out by late afternoon and with some spots set to see partly to mostly sunny skies return, that will allow some areas northwest of Joplin to see temperatures back in the lower 70s for the late afternoon. Other areas underneath a little more stubborn cloud cover will have to make due with temperatures in the middle to upper 60s before the afternoon is all said and done.
In terms of what our rain chances will leave behind, we aren’t expecting tremendous amounts of rain. On the average, much of the area will receive between a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall before we completely dry out by the start of this evening. Any heavier pockets of rain that can develop and pass through could push a few spots near an inch of rainfall before the rain chances clear out.
While the day may start out not so nice, the evening will be mostly clear and dry. With those conditions and a light breeze starting to come back out of the south, this will actually lead to a chilly night and start to our Tuesday morning. Plan on lows dropping into the lower 50s for our Tuesday morning.
With mostly sunny skies and a light southeast breeze throughout our Tuesday, it will be a really nice day with highs topping out in the upper 70s to near 80° across the region.
Heading into Wednesday, we’ll still find ourselves just on the milder side of the upper-level ridge as it tries to build back in. With partly sunny skies and dry weather expected for Wednesday, though, we’ll stay nice and warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
The ridge may briefly gain back control on Thursday with highs back near 90° under partly sunny skies and a slight chance for a few isolated t-storms. However, another system and another couple of upper-level disturbances will push the ridge back to the southwest. We’ll have this result in mostly cloudy skies and scattered t-storms for Friday as highs drop back into the upper 80s.
While we do have to hold on to chances for scattered rain and t-storms for the rest of the weekend ahead of us, some dry time mixed in will make sure that temperatures turn out fairly nice. With us looking to work back on the milder side of the jet stream for Saturday and Sunday, we’ll have that result in highs in the middle 80s for both of those days.
Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out through the middle of July down below. Have a great Monday!
June 28th-July 3rd: A warm start to the week but then just hot and humid. Thunderstorms for Monday, then again Thursday into the holiday weekend.
July 4th-10th: A hot and humid week with thunderstorm chances on the 4th and 5th, then again late in the week and into the weekend.
July 11th- 17th: A little cooler to start the week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. A hot middle and then warm end to the week. Thunderstorms back in the weekend of the 17th.