Good early Sunday morning, everyone. While we kept the heat in place across the area on our Saturday, we did trend a touch cooler compared to the lower to middle 90s we had back on Friday. We did start in the middle 70s for our Saturday morning. Even though we had mostly sunny skies throughout the day, we had a south wind in place throughout the day to mix up the incoming rays from the sun. While that did keep temperatures down a few degrees, it was still hot for Saturday afternoon with highs around 90°.
Looking at our weather setup, we are certainly happy to see a change in our weather setup on the way. At the surface, we find ourselves on the hot side of the warm front that’s parked to our north. That has kept any t-storms out in western/northern Kansas and around the St. Louis area away from us and staying along the front. We do note that the stationary front stretching from Wyoming into Nevada and California is the next front that will work in as a cold front as we wrap up our Sunday and head into Monday.
We’ll see that front come our way thanks to a big change in our jet stream setup. With the upper-level ridge being shoved back into New Mexico, we’re starting to see the jet stream return to the area. The upper-level low working across the Dakotas and another wave coming out of western Canada will both work together to bring the next front our way.
Before the front can do anything for us, we’ll keep quiet to start this morning out. With mostly clear skies for most of us and a light south breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll have lows drop into the lower 70s.
Even with partly to mostly sunny skies throughout the day, we’ll stay hot once again as our next cold front continues to work into western and central parts of Kansas. Even with a south wind at 10-20 mph, we will see a high of 93° for Joplin today while outlying areas will see highs in the lower to middle 90s before the afternoon is all said and done.
Once we get into Sunday evening, that’s when we’ll start to focus on the cold front working into our far northwestern counties. Ahead of the front, we’ll have scattered t-storms develop and work to the east and southeast. While we won’t expect anything severe, these t-storms could certainly be a bit on the strong side as they start to work through.
Not only will the front start to bring better chances for scattered rain and t-storms for late Sunday evening and into our Monday, it will start to give us a break from the heat. Note the temperatures by midnight on Monday. These will be early morning highs around 80° for our entire Monday.
As the first cold front works in with scattered t-storms for Monday morning, that will bring temperatures down into the lower 70s by 10 AM. Behind that, another cold front will still have plenty of instability and warmth to work with and keep scattered t-storms in the forecast for Monday afternoon. This will keep temperatures between the middle 60s and lower 70s for that afternoon.
Behind both cold fronts, we’ll see skies turning mostly clear throughout Monday evening and certainly for Tuesday morning. After several mornings with lows ranging between the lower and middle 70s, lows in the lower 50s for Tuesday morning are starting to sound really nice.
With a light breeze and mostly sunny skies for Tuesday, we’ll keep temperatures below normal as highs will only top out in the upper 70s across the region.
While the upper-level ridge tries to build back in on Wednesday, we’ll stay dry and warm with partly sunny skies in place. This will keep highs in the middle 80s across the region.
By the time we hit Thursday, the jet stream starts to work back on top of the area. While that will send highs back near 90°, we’ll have a weak wave ride along the jet and work together with a frontal boundary passing through. That will allow for some scattered t-storms for Thursday afternoon.
As we approach next weekend, another cold front will work in from the north. With that wanting to come into play and the upper levels wanting to send the ridge back to the west, the t-storm chances for Friday with highs in the lower 90s will lead to a warm Saturday with highs in the middle 80s.
Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out through the middle of July down below. Have a great Sunday, Father’s Day and first day of summer!
Next Friday and Saturday: Heating back up! Some scattered thunderstorms on both days.
June 27th-July 3rd: A warm start to the week but then just hot and humid. Thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, then again Thursday into the holiday weekend.
July 4th-10th: A hot and humid week with thunderstorm chances on the 4th and 5th, then again late in the week and into the weekend.
July 11th- 17th: A little cooler to start the week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. A hot middle and then warm end to the week. Thunderstorms back in the weekend of the 17th.