Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Summer doesn’t start until Sunday, but Mother Nature does what Mother Nature does. With the humidity not quite as high once again today, it didn’t feel like a true summer day. However, it was another day where a mild start turned into another hot afternoon. With mostly sunny skies in place, we went from lows in the middle 60s to highs in the middle 90s this afternoon. This afternoon was a bit hotter compared to our Monday as we started the work week out.
Looking at our weather setup, we just can’t get anything big going at the surface. While we do have a weak stationary front on top of the area, any better chances for rain and t-storms have stayed in upper New England and into the Florida Peninsula.
Upstairs, our weather is still under the control of an upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners out to our west. This is the same upper-level ridge that’s keeping us hot and mainly dry. While we can occasionally get a random t-storm or two to pop up in a setup like this, this setup is primarily keeping any big systems around the ridge and away from us.
For our Wednesday, though, a weak upper-level wave wants to sneak along the ridge and head our way. That could certainly spark a random shower or t-storm overnight and into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, it will certainly be another mild start for us as lows will drop back into the upper 60s to near 70°.
As we go into the afternoon ahead of us, the upper-level ridge will keep us hot once again as highs will top out in the middle 90s across the area. However, the upper-level wave sneaking through will pick up on a little extra humidity and try to get a random shower or t-storm to develop in the afternoon. For most of us, Wednesday will be a dry day.
With that slight bump in the humidity and the bump of the thermometer, it will feel like the upper 90s across the area for Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday is looking like more of the same for us. With partly to mostly sunny skies and another weak wave trying to sneak around the ridge, we can’t rule out a random shower or t-storm for Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll stay hot for Thursday with highs in the middle 90s for areas around Joplin and some outlying areas pushing into the upper 90s.
With that extra bump in temperatures for Thursday working with the humidity in place, temperatures will feel like we’ll be close to 100° during the peak heating of the afternoon.
It’s worth noting once again that we’ll continue to keep an eye on the jet stream and the upper-level ridge for the rest of the week. While it will keep us hot for Thursday, a weak wave will certainly try to slide by around the edge of the ridge and give us a slight chance for a random shower or t-storm in the afternoon.
Once we get into Saturday and Father’s Day, we’ll keep an eye on moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico due to a possible tropical system trying to develop. That will interact with a cold front that’ll come close by. While we stay hot with highs in the lower to middle 90s for both Saturday and Father’s Day, this setup will lead to an increase in our chances for showers and t-storms.
For Monday, we’ll see a stronger cold front and a change in our upper-level setup will work in. That will result in scattered t-storms for Monday morning before we dry out for the afternoon. Fortunately, the air behind the front and the changing upper-level setup showing the upper-level ridge breaking down means that we’ll get a break from the heat for early next week. We’ll have highs topping out around 80° for Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Doug has you covered with the long range forecast for the next few weeks down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
Nick
June 23rd-26th: We’ll watch for scattered thunderstorms from Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures will stay warm for much of the week before we start heating back up by the weekend.
June 27th-July 3rd: Heating up this week with mainly hot temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms as we work into the holiday weekend.