Good Sunday evening, everyone. It was nice to end the weekend on a quiet note all across the area after starting the weekend out with the complex of t-storms back on Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Behind Friday’s t-storms, we did see a slight drop in temperatures and a slight drop in the humidity for both Saturday and today. Even with some lower humidity in play, that allowed us to go from a mild Saturday morning to highs back around 90°. After upper 60s this morning, we had highs push back up into the upper 80s this afternoon at Joplin Regional. Outside Joplin, a few spots did hit 90° before the afternoon was all said and done.
Looking at our weather setup, we don’t see any systems at the surface having a direct impact on our weather. While we do have a front to the north and south of us, they’ll stay there to start the work week out and keep any good t-storm chances out of the picture. The stalled out front across the western US wants to come into play later on this week.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the center of our upper-level ridge has shifted into New Mexico. Even with that, the ridge is strong enough to keep the core jet stream to our east. That’s also allowing any organized storm systems and better t-storm chances to stay away. That being said, we can still get a wave strong enough to ride along the edge of the ridge and try to bring a slim chance for a t-storm or two our way as the new week continues on.
For the rest of the night and into Monday morning, we’ll keep quiet under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. With the drier air in place and a light easterly breeze, this will send lows into the lower 60s to start our Monday morning out.
While it will be a nice start to the day, the lower humidity means it won’t take much sun to heat things up. Once we get past sunrise, we’ll find ourselves in the middle to upper 80s by lunchtime and highs back in the lower 90s around Joplin. Outlying areas under partly to mostly sunny skies will have highs between the lower to middle 90s.
We’ll sail through Monday night and into Tuesday morning under mostly clear skies. Even with a slight bump in the humidity for Tuesday morning, we’ll keep things mild with lows back in the upper 60s across the area.
With a subtle wave trying to sneak along the edge of our ridge and wanting to interact with the slight bump in humidity, it wouldn’t be surprising if a random shower or t-storm could develop for Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll stay partly sunny and hot with highs in the lower 90s.
I don’t see any big changes for Wednesday. While an upper-level low in Upper New England wants to try and send the jet back in our direction, we’ll stay under the influence of the upper-level ridge out west. While that wants to keep highs in the lower 90s for Wednesday and Thursday, a wave wanting to ride along the jet could try to bring a few afternoon t-storms our way for Wednesday.
By Friday, the upper-level low that’ll work across the Canadian border will start to dive into the northern Great Lakes. That will start to push the front out west into our direction. With the upper-level ridge losing a bit of influence over us, this will allow for scattered t-storms to come back into the forecast as the weekend gets started. It will still be a bit hot with highs in the lower 90s.
As this frontal system edges closer and we lose the influence of the upper-level ridge, that will keep scattered t-storms in the forecast for Saturday and Father’s Day. I do expect some dry time for this weekend. Not only that, the shift in the jet should start to bring in a slight drop in temperatures. We’re expecting highs to drop back into the upper 80s by Saturday and on Sunday for Father’s Day.
Doug has you covered with the long range forecast for the next few weeks down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
June 20th-26th: The heat returns early in the week with scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday through Saturday. We will cool down a bit for the weekend.
June 27th-July 3rd: Heating up this week with mainly hot temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms as we work into the holiday weekend.