Good Thursday evening, everyone. Summer officially doesn’t begin until June 20th for this year. However, Mother Nature didn’t get the memo and has kept our early taste of summer in place for today. After we saw highs in the lower 90s yesterday, we went from lows near 70° this morning to afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s across the area. Throw in the dew points in the lower 70s and it ended up feeling like were around 100° during the afternoon.
Let’s break down our weather setup because some interesting changes are on the way for Friday. While we kept quiet for today and for much of the evening, I was keeping an eye on developing t-storms out in the Northern Plains. T-storms in North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska will continue to develop overnight ahead of an advancing cold front. They won’t come our way for the overnight or for our Friday morning.
However, let’s head upstairs to the jet stream level. While we stay hot and humid due to the upper-level ridge, note the upper-level low working across the Northern Rockies. That low will continue to ride along the edge of the ridge as we work into Friday. With that low and a slight change in the position of the ridge, that will actually allow the t-storms to work toward eastern Nebraska by the middle of Friday morning before they start working to the south.
With that being the likely scenario we’ll have for Friday, we’ll watch for those t-storms to try and work in as early as 3 or 4 o’clock Friday afternoon. While the Storm Prediction Center did place us under a marginal risk for severe weather, Doug and I have looked over model output throughout the day. We wouldn’t be surprised if this risk not only gets expanded in coverage but bumped up to a low severe threat by the time Friday morning comes around. Regardless, we’ll watch for those t-storms late Friday afternoon through Friday evening with wind, hail & heavy rainfall being the biggest threats to keep an eye on.
While a stray shower or t-storm can’t be ruled out overnight, most of us will stay dry under partly cloudy skies. However, it will be a very mild (if not warm) and muggy start to the day with lows only dropping back into the lower to middle 70s.
With partly sunny skies and a light south breeze throughout the morning and into the afternoon, that will only allow us to heat back up into the middle 90s for highs across the area. Factor the humidity into the equation and it will feel like we’ll be around 100° during the afternoon. By the time we get to 3 or 4 o’clock in the afternoon, we’ll keep an eye out for t-storms to start working in from the north out of Topeka and Kansas City.
The Future Track wants the complex of t-storms to work through the northern half of the viewing area to start the evening out and work closer to the OK/KS line and the I-44 corridor in MO by 7 PM. We’ll definitely be keeping an eye out for wind, hail and heavy rain with these t-storms still expected to pass through from north to south.
By the time we get to 10-11 o’clock, the worst of the t-storms will be working toward the I-40 corridor between Oklahoma City and Fort Smith. While that puts an end to our threat for strong to severe t-storms and sends temperatures back into the lower 70s and upper 60s for Saturday morning, we won’t rule out some lagging showers and t-storms behind this complex as we work into Saturday morning.
While a few t-storms may be possible behind this complex for Saturday morning, we’ll look for partly sunny skies and a much calmer day as highs cool down just a little bit. We’ll have highs topping out in the upper 80s for Saturday afternoon.
Beyond Saturday, the jet stream setup generally shows the upper-level ridge keeping us dry under partly sunny skies. However, it will push highs back into the lower 90s for Sunday and Monday afternoon.
For Tuesday, the upper-level ridge starts to shift into the Rocky Mountains. With a corresponding upper-level low working across the Great Lakes, that sets the jet stream up for another chance for scattered t-storms for Tuesday. It’ll still be a bit hot for Tuesday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s.
Fortunately, the upper-level ridge wants to stay in the Rockies through the middle of next week. With us on the cooler side of the jet and partly to mostly sunny skies to enjoy, we’ll enjoy some drier air as highs drop back into the middle 80s.
Doug has his long range forecast out just before the Fourth of July down below. Have a good night and a great Friday!
June 18th-19th: Warm temperatures return for the weekend. We’ll watch for additional t-storms on Friday.
June 20th-26th: A hot first half of the week with temperatures dropping back to warm the second half of the week. Warm would be 80s, hot is above 90 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms back around the second half of the week.
June 27th-July 3rd: Heating up this week with mainly hot temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms as we work into the holiday weekend.