Good early Thursday morning, everyone. Leave it to Mother Nature to once again have the final say on how the day will unfold in terms of our weather. After we had a warm Tuesday afternoon with highs in the middle 80s, our partly sunny skies and dry weather throughout the day took us from the upper 60s to the lower 90s for our Wednesday.
While the day was dry, we had some isolated showers and a few t-storms pop up in a few of our southern counties. While they produced some moderate to heavy downpours, they have fallen apart as we begin the early morning hours of our Thursday. These isolated showers and t-storms weren’t triggered by anything at the surface. The only surface feature worth noting is a frontal system stalled out to our north and west. It may try to make a run for the area on Saturday, but that won’t come into play for the next few days.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn low is drifting across the Ohio River Valley. While it is off to our east, it is still trying to play a role in our forecast. We also note an upper-level high coming out of Mexico to our southwest. That will keep us hot and humid for the next few days while other waves out west continue to ride along the edge of the ridge.
Aside from a few showers before sunrise, we’ll have partly cloudy skies in place. While we do get a break from the heat, it’ll be a mild and muggy start to the day as lows drop back into the lower 70s across the area.
While a stray shower or t-storm can’t be ruled out for the afternoon ahead of us, it’ll be another hot and humid day under partly sunny skies. With highs back in the lower 90s and humidity in place, it may feel like the middle to upper 90s during the afternoon.
After we get past another warm evening, partly cloudy skies and a light breeze will let temperatures drop back into the lower 70s for Friday morning.
After a dry start to Friday, let’s talk about Friday afternoon. It will be hot and humid once again with highs back in the lower 90s. However, we’ll watch for another wave to ride along the edge of the ridge. That wants to trigger a complex of t-storms to our northwest and steer it southeast. There’s a chance for the storms to turn southeast and come in from the north by late Friday afternoon. That’s something we’ll keep an eye on as we go through the next few days.
If that complex of t-storms can come in as the Future Track is suggesting, they could be strong to possibly severe with wind and hail being the issues we would have to keep an eye on. While we don’t want that, this complex of t-storms would have the strength to knock temperatures down as we head into Friday evening.
Beyond Friday’s t-storm chances, we could see a few isolated t-storms on Saturday and mostly sunny skies for Sunday. As long as the upper-level ridge is in control, it will keep temperatures above normal with highs in the upper 80s on Saturday and back into the lower 90s for Sunday.
By Monday, the center of the ridge wants to start shifting into the southern Rockies. With that in the forecast, we’ll have another chance to see a wave ride along the edge of the ridge and bring some scattered t-storms into the area for Monday. With our temperatures still influenced by the ridge, though, we’ll stay pretty warm for Monday with highs in the upper 80s.
The latest indications show the upper-level ridge continuing to shift over the Colorado/Utah line by Tuesday and Wednesday. If that holds steady with an upper-level low working across Upper New England, that could bring some milder air back into play. With partly sunny skies and a few t-storms possible Tuesday, that will keep highs in the upper 80s. With mostly sunny skies for Wednesday and the jet stream just to our west, that could drop highs back into the lower 80s.
Doug has his long range forecast out just before the Fourth of July down below. Have a great Thursday!
Nick
June 17th-19th: Warm temperatures return by Thursday into the weekend. We’ll watch for additional t-storms for Thursday and Friday.
June 20th-26th: A hot first half of the week with temperatures dropping back to warm the second half of the week. Warm would be 80s, hot is above 90 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms back around the second half of the week.
June 27th-July 3rd: Heating up this week with mainly hot temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms as we work into the holiday weekend.