Good early Tuesday morning, everyone. We managed to get through yet another warm day across the area as our new work week got underway. Like we usually expect for early June, the building warmth and humidity for the afternoon gave way to some widely scattered showers and t-storms after a quiet start in the morning. While we didn’t have to deal with severe weather on Monday, any pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall led to some spots picking up between half an inch and almost 2 inches. Most of the area remained fairly dry for our Monday.
Rain or shine, we all saw another warm day across the area. After dropping into the middle 60s Monday morning, we went back into the lower to middle 80s for our afternoon highs.
Looking at our weather setup, we still have just one feature at the surface influencing our weather pattern. The lone area of high pressure over the Carolinas is keeping our light southerly breeze in place. That’s also allowing the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to keep on coming up this way. The frontal system to our northwest has stalled out and won’t try to make a run to our area for the next several days.
Upstairs, we still have our weather being controlled by a low cut off from the jet stream. It spent Monday slowly wandering over the state of Missouri. While it will continue to move along very slowly, it will still play a role in our forecast for the next few days while it plans on sticking nearby. Once we get that out of the picture, though, the upper-level ridge will really come into play later on this week.
Let’s focus on what the upper-level low wants to do for us today. During the early morning hours, we are actually lacking enough warm air aloft to keep us mainly quiet to start the morning out. That means with some humidity still in place, we could see a few random showers and a random t-storm try to fire up and wander about before sunrise. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies should be the rule of thumb across much of the area before sunrise this morning.
Indications still show most of the area staying dry as we get the Tuesday AM drive underway under mostly cloudy skies. Everyone will have a mild start with lows dropping back into the upper 60s.
While the AM drive looks to start dry, the upper-level low will interact with our returning warm temperatures and humidity for the afternoon and lead to another round of widely scattered showers and t-storms. While we aren’t expecting severe weather, the strongest showers and t-storms will certainly produce some moderate to heavy rainfall. Otherwise, partly sunny skies will send highs back near 83° across the region.
Once the sun goes down and we lose the heating of the day, the t-storm chances will taper off before the overnight hours begin. Partly cloudy skies will remain in place for tonight and Wednesday morning as overnight lows drop back into the upper 60s.
Once we get into Wednesday afternoon, it’ll be the same story once again. While highs climb a little warmer into the middle 80s, partly sunny skies could give way to a few widely scattered showers and t-storms for parts of the area.
Beyond Wednesday, the upper-level low will finally get carried away by the jet stream and start pulling it off to our east. However, with any waves riding around our building ridge of high pressure, we’ll hold on to the chance for some isolated t-storms as highs start pushing into the upper 80s.
With our area on the edge of a building upper-level high centered over far western Texas and Mexico by Friday, any waves riding around the ridge could try to bring scattered t-storms back into play as the weekend gets started. Otherwise, plan on an early taste of summer heat with highs pushing near 90°. By Saturday, our rain chances will back down to a few showers as we keep highs near 90° under partly sunny skies.
With the upper-level ridge wanting to keep us dry for Sunday and Monday of next week, that will certainly keep us very warm (if not hot). Projections show us hitting the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies for Sunday before we drop back into the upper 80s on Monday under partly sunny skies.
Doug has his long range forecast out just before the Fourth of July down below. Have a great Tuesday!
June 15th-19th: Milder temperatures to start the week. Warm temperatures return by the middle of the weekend and into the weekend. T-storm chances return Wednesday through Friday.
June 20th-26th: A hot first half of the week with temperatures dropping back to warm the second half of the week. Warm would be 80s, hot is above 90 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms back around the second half of the week.
June 27th-July 3rd: Heating up this week with mainly hot temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms as we work into the holiday weekend.