Good Tuesday evening, everyone. In terms of our weather, it was our same story for yet another day. After a mild start this morning, the building warmth and humidity resulted in random and widely scattered showers and a few t-storms. While we didn’t have to deal with anything too strong or severe, the worst the rain chances did was bring isolated amounts between half an inch and an inch of rainfall before they fizzled out this evening. Despite the random showers and a few t-storms today, we kept on with our warming trend. We were certainly warmer than yesterday. After a mild start in the middle 60s, we saw highs in Joplin push back into the middle 80s during the afternoon.
Looking at our weather setup, we just have a southerly breeze in place due to an area of high pressure that has shifted out into the Atlantic. The only other feature standing out at the surface is the frontal system stalled out to our north and west. While this may try to swing on by late this weekend to try and give us a few dry days from start to finish, it triggered strong to severe t-storms across the Northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
Upstairs, we still have our weather being controlled by a low cut off from the jet stream. While the low is spinning across the state of Illinois, it was still capable of sparking some widely scattered showers and t-storms in our area. All the while, the jet stream to our north keeps us warm as we watch an upper-level high build out of Mexico.
Our quiet night will lead to a quiet start to our Wednesday morning under partly cloudy skies. It will be mild and a bit muggy with lows dropping back into the upper 60s.
As temperatures warm back into the upper 80s for our Wednesday afternoon, that will interact with the moisture in place and the upper-level low still influencing our weather and spark some isolated showers and a few t-storms for the afternoon. Like the past few days, these aren’t expected to turn too strong or severe. However, some moderate to heavy downpours can’t be ruled out.
Once the sun goes down and we lose the heating of the day, any stray showers or t-storms out there will fizzle away. That will leave us with partly cloudy skies for Wednesday night and Thursday morning as lows only drop back into the lower 70s.
Aside from a few isolated showers or t-storms Thursday afternoon, we’ll continue to warm up under partly sunny skies. Even with a light south breeze in place, we’ll see highs push back into the upper 80s for much of the area. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a few spots come close to 90° before Thursday is all said and done.
Beyond Thursday, the upper-level low will finally move off to our east. However, with any waves riding around our building ridge of high pressure, we’ll hold on to the chance for scattered t-storms to try and work in from the north and northwest for both Friday and Saturday. Even with that potential for t-storms, the ridge will continue to strengthen out of Mexico and parts of Texas. Here, that will result in highs around 90° under partly sunny skies.
With the ridge in control for both Sunday and Monday, that will keep us mostly sunny and hot with highs in the lower 90s. While both days look dry, humidity in place will make it feel like the middle to upper 90s for both Sunday and Monday afternoon.
While Sunday and Monday of next week look dry, we’ll need to keep an eye on any systems riding along the edge of the ridge. One potential wave wants to develop to our northwest during the day on Monday and slide through as we work into Tuesday. That could bring a chance for more widespread showers and t-storms. If that can stay in the forecast, that would keep highs in the middle to upper 80s for Tuesday afternoon.
Doug has his long range forecast out just before the Fourth of July down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
June 16th-19th: Milder temperatures to start the week. Warm temperatures return by the middle of the weekend and into the weekend. T-storm chances return Wednesday through Friday.
June 20th-26th: A hot first half of the week with temperatures dropping back to warm the second half of the week. Warm would be 80s, hot is above 90 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms back around the second half of the week.
June 27th-July 3rd: Heating up this week with mainly hot temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms as we work into the holiday weekend.