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Latest updated blog – Warming trend continues for Thursday – Nick

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. After what seemed like several days of rain chances to track and a cooler than normal start to the month of June, our weather setup took a turn for the better. While some areas yesterday saw highs push into the lower to middle 70s, those numbers were more numerous across the region this afternoon. It certainly was the case for Joplin Regional. After seeing highs in the middle 60s yesterday, eventual partly sunny skies took us from the upper 50s to a high of 73°.

On a day where our stubborn upper-level system still had a chance to bring in some scattered showers and t-storms, it was nice of Mother Nature to give us an early break in the rain chances with the vast majority of our day on the dry side. We deserved it since some areas picked up between half an inch and almost 3 inches this week alone. That doesn’t take into account the rain chances from last week or the flooding rainfall parts of the area saw last Thursday.

Looking at the weather setup, we still don’t have any big surface features in play. While a low centered over southern Illinois and southern Indiana gave us a light north breeze today, the frontal boundaries are keeping any good rain and t-storm chances to our south.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn upper-level low is finally moving to the east away from the Iowa/Missouri border. As it continues to do so, it’ll leave us with at least 2 more dry days for us to take advantage of. We certainly will since that will mean at least a dry start to the upcoming weekend.

While the departing system is leaving us quiet for the overnight, partly cloudy skies with moisture on the ground and a light breeze will lead to some patchy fog to develop before we hit sunrise. Otherwise, we’ll be dry and chilly to start Thursday out with lows in the middle 50s.

Even though the upper-level low moves on, some subtle or weak energy riding along the jet could try to spark a random shower or t-storm for Thursday afternoon. Once we get past the morning fog, the odds really favor us enjoying a warm afternoon with highs in the upper 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

To start the weekend out, it’s looking pretty good for us. We may start a bit chilly for Friday morning in the upper 50s. However, we’ll be nice and quiet for Thursday evening and to get our Friday morning started as a light southerly breeze starts to return.

For the entire day, we’ll enjoy mostly sunny skies from start to finish for the first time since May 13th. Mostly sunny skies with a south and southwest breeze at 5-10 mph will send our high temperatures into the lower 80s around Joplin for the afternoon. We may even see some middle 80s on the Kansas and Oklahoma side before Friday afternoon is all said and done.

While we get to enjoy a nice start to the weekend, we’ll be keeping an eye on our next upper-level low that will develop across the state of Texas. On Saturday, the jet stream will start to grab the low and slowly pull it to the north. Before it can pull it in our direction, some returning moisture will result in partly sunny skies and a few isolated t-storms for our southern counties for the afternoon. We’ll still be warm with highs in the lower 80s.

The Future Track’s look at the jet stream setup for Tuesday can really apply for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Our next upper-level low will be slow to move across the region. While temperatures will still be warm with highs ranging between the upper 70s and lower 80s, this low will keep us mostly cloudy through early next week with good chances for scattered t-storms. At least based on current indications, we don’t see a severe setup through early next week and we don’t see any indications of heavy or flooding rainfall on the way. Given how things can change quickly around here, we’ll keep an eye on things as we roll through the next several days.

For a look at the next few weeks, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!

Nick

June 9th-June 12th: Staying warm. Staying dry before t-storm chances return on Saturday.

June 13th-19th:  Another warm week with several rounds of storms during the middle of the week.

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