Good Thursday night/ Friday morning! I hope you have had a great week so far. Mine has been busy busy but good. I am back in town for a few days before I head back to Seattle for a bit. However, back in town means the month long forecast. This is based off the Heady Pattern. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 and use it to long range forecast. Here is a break down.
A new and different pattern roughly begins each year the 3rd week of September.
The pattern last for a year and then the new pattern arrives again the following September.
In the pattern is a recurring cycle. The cycle length can be anywhere from about 40 days upwards of 70 days. This year we are on a 46 day cycle. We are at the end of cycle 6 and about to start cycle 7.
Severe weather season was odd. We had plenty of chances during the month of May, but we just never got the unstable airmass. We got some good storms last week but that was really it. We have had 6 events in 2021 with either severe thunderstorm warnings or tornado warnings. But overall, a very calm May. Now it is summer and severe weather season ends on June 10th. We can still have tornadoes during the summer, but we usually don’t have the upper level dynamics to get them. Most of our summer storms are wind and hail makers. That is mainly what I expect during this month. We do get a lot of MCS’s, (Mesoscale Convective Systems) or big complex of overnight storms. Lets take a look at the month.
Thankfully, I don’t expect a ton of heat this month. When I say mild=70s, warm=80s, hot=90 plus.
Lets look at next week.
Chances for showers and pop up thunderstorms each day. These are mainly afternoon pop up storms, but we have them each day. Most of the week will be in the 80s. Week three.
A little cooler to start the week. Then back into the 80s the rest of the week. Thunderstorms on Sunday, then again Wednesday through Friday. These could be the overnight big batch of storms variety. Week 4.
The 4th week starts off hot with highs into the 90s. We will get those overnight bigger storms once again Tuesday through Thursday. Then cooling down a bit the second half of the week. However, thunderstorms sticking around the weekend of the 26th and 27th. Lets move into the last week.
The heat starts to set in! Mainly 90s for the week with scattered thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
I can’t believe it is already June. But at least we are almost into the weekend!