Good Monday evening, everyone. While it was nice to keep much of the Memorial Day Weekend and this morning dry, Mother Nature brought the rain chances back in right on cue late this afternoon and into this evening. With the cloud cover back in action as well, that had an impact on temperatures. Normally, we should have highs in the lower 80s for the last day of May across the area. After seeing highs in the lower 70s yesterday, however, we turned out a little cooler today. We went from the middle 50s this morning only into the middle to upper 60s this afternoon.
Looking at our weather setup, our last front is still parked well to our south keeping any good chances for strong to severe t-storms south of us as well. While it looks like high pressure to our east might be in control, that’s not exactly where we find ourselves.
The answer to our weather setup for today and for the next few days lies in the jet stream level upstairs. An upper-level low that has been parked in the Desert Southwest for much of the weekend has finally worked into southern and southeastern Colorado. While it’s doing its part in keeping strong to severe t-storms well to our south, energy from the low is riding along the jet and into our area. That’s what brought the cloud cover and the rain chances back in this afternoon and into this evening.
Rain chances are something some of you need a break from especially if you picked up the brunt of the heavy rainfall from Thursday. With these rain chances working in and lasting until Wednesday, we have flood watches in effect for parts of northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and Barry, McDonald and Newton counties in southwest Missouri.
The rain chances that picked up this afternoon and evening will continue overnight especially along and south of the I-44 corridor. As the rain continues, the expectation is for some of the rain to intensify into moderate to heavy rainfall at times. We’ll also continue to keep cloudy skies in place as we go through the overnight.
For the drive back to work Tuesday morning, it’ll be best to have the rain gear handy before you head out the door. With the scattered rain around and cloudy skies in place, we’ll only see a slight drop in temperatures but a chilly start in the upper 50s.
Even with our rain chances easing back to scattered showers during our Tuesday, we’ll hold on to cloudy skies during the day as an easterly and northeasterly breeze stays in place. This setup won’t give us much wiggle room to warm up during the day. We’re only expecting highs to top out in the middle 60s across the area for the afternoon. If we can get a few peaks of the sun, perhaps that could push a few spots into the upper 60s.
While there won’t be a big change in our setup for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the upper-level low out in Colorado will continue to move along and pass through the region. That will keep us mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers in the forecast as lows drop into the upper 50s for Wednesday morning.
While the upper-level low passes through and slides to the northeast of us for Wednesday afternoon, we’re expecting mostly cloudy skies to stick with us and a chance for some scattered showers and t-storms. With some peaks of the sun returning and a calm wind at the surface for much of the day, that should start to send us back near 73° for Wednesday afternoon.
Our current storm system will give us our best rain chances in the short term. While a good portion of southeast Kansas and our northern counties in Missouri may only see as much as a quarter of an inch, areas along and south of I-44 are set to see the bulk of the rain amounts through Wednesday afternoon. These rain amounts want to vary between half an inch and 2 inches with any moderate to heavy pockets of rain set to contribute to those higher expected amounts. While this may not be a lot of rainfall, we’re still very saturated in our southern counties and especially those in the flood watch. Anything that tries to come down in a moderate or heavy downpour will essentially be runoff and could lead to some flooding concerns that we’ll have to keep an eye on.
Once we get into Thursday and Friday, those will be the driest days we’ll have in the extended forecast. While we can’t rule out a random t-storm each day, we’ll find ourselves back underneath an upper-level ridge with partly sunny skies and mainly dry weather. That will send us into the upper 70s on Thursday and back into the lower 80s on Friday. Note, however, the future upper-level low that wants to develop near New Mexico and Texas by Friday afternoon.
While first impressions show this not doing much for Friday, that changes as the jet stream starts to grab the low on Saturday. As it does, a southerly wind at the surface and aloft around the low will start bringing in some Gulf moisture back in here. With that, we’ll have partly sunny skies and a chance for scattered t-storms working back in for the afternoon. Despite that, we’ll stay warm with highs in the lower 80s across the area.
As the jet stream carries the northward through Texas and into eastern Oklahoma for Sunday and Monday of next week, that will bring mostly cloudy skies back into play and keep the chance for scattered t-storms in place. Despite that, current indications still show temperatures staying warm as highs want to remain in the lower 80s.
For a look at the next few weeks, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
June 7th-June 12th: We’ll be warm for this week. Tuesday through Friday look dry before t-storm chances return on Saturday.
June 13th-19th: Another warm week with several rounds of storms during the middle of the week.