Good Sunday evening, everyone. It was nice that we stayed mainly dry across much of the area today and see some sunshine as we started the morning hours out. Even though we trended back to mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon with a few showers working through a few of our Kansas communities, temperatures fared a lot better compared to yesterday. After we dropped back into the upper 40s this morning, we went back into the lower 70s for the city of Joplin today. With other areas in the upper 60s to near 70° this afternoon, it’s a good improvement after highs around 600░ yesterday.
Looking at our weather setup, we kept mainly quiet with our last front from Thursday well to the south of us. Along the stationary front and around the center of low pressure south of Denver, that’s where strong to severe t-storms fired up once again today. Fortunately, any chances for severe weather will stay along the front and to the southwest of us over the course of the next 3 days.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, though, there is a feature that will start to bring some of those rain chances from the west our way. Note the upper-level low sitting over Arizona. That played a hand in the severe t-storms out across the southern Rockies and into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles this afternoon and evening. That will start to lift out of the Desert Southwest and ride along the jet stream as we go through the next 3 days. As a result, our rain chances will start climbing up once again.
While we can’t rule out a few showers trying to clip our western counties by sunrise, most spots will start Memorial Day on a dry and chilly note under mostly cloudy skies. With the cloud cover and a southeast breeze in place, at least we’ll stay out of the upper 40s. Our lows for Monday AM will drop back into the middle 50s.
For the morning hours, most areas will be dry while a few showers continue to try to sneak across our western counties. However, everyone will stay mostly cloudy as we get the afternoon started as temperatures look to push back into the middle 60s.
While the prevailing theme of the morning will be mainly dry weather, we’re still expecting the better chances for scattered rain and some t-storms to start working in during the afternoon. Fortunately, we aren’t expecting any strong or severe t-storms for our Memorial Day. Plus, we’ll stay mild with highs pushing back into the upper 60s to near 70° across the region.
Monday evening starts with areas of rain and some t-storms around. Overnight and into Tuesday morning, we’ll back down to some scattered showers and a few t-storms. As for temperatures, we’ll turn a bit chilly once again with lows dropping back into the upper 50s.
With the upper-level low working into the Central Plains, we’ll hold on to periods of scattered rain and some t-storms for Tuesday. While we won’t worry about any strong or severe t-storms for Tuesday, cloudy skies will work with the rain chances and only allow highs to climb into the upper 60s for a really mild start to the month of June.
In terms of our rain chances that will stick through at least Wednesday morning, we have the chance to see the amounts add up in some spots. While some areas could see as little as half an inch between Memorial Day and Wednesday morning, any heavy pockets of rain that can work through can push some areas up to 2 inches.
Before the upper-level low departs, it will keep a chance for scattered rain and t-storms around for Wednesday afternoon. Despite that, returning partly sunny skies will start to allow temperatures to climb back up. We’ll look for afternoon highs in the middle 70s on our Wednesday.
While the low departs on Thursday, we’ll then watch for another developing upper-level wave out in the Texas Panhandle by Friday. This feature could leave a slight chance for a random t-storm or two for Thursday and Friday. Generally, we’ll stay mainly dry for both days as we climb back into the upper 70s on Thursday and near 80° on Friday.
By the coming weekend, that upper-level low will work through the Plains and serve as additional rain and t-storm chances on the way. Despite these rain chances wanting to stick around for this coming Saturday and Sunday, we’ll stay warm with highs around 80°.
For a look at the next few weeks, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a safe Memorial Day.
Nick
June 6th-June 12th: A warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday. Most of the week looks good till storms by Saturday.
June 13th-19th: Another warm week with several rounds of storms during the middle of the week.