Good early Tuesday morning, everyone. Despite another day with plenty of cloud cover and scattered rain across parts of the area, we managed to start the new work week off on another warm note. After we saw highs near 80° at Joplin Regional on Sunday, we went from lows in the middle 60s to Monday afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Even with scattered rain that worked through and left many with fairly minor amounts, we all saw highs back in the middle to upper 70s for Monday afternoon.
Breaking down our weather setup, changes are taking shape at the surface. While we still have a southerly wind coming from an area of high pressure over Tennessee, our next front spawned strong to severe t-storms out across western Kansas and western Texas last evening. Even though those t-storms won’t last during the early morning hours, the front will start working into central Kansas as we go through today.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level ridge to our east is starting to sink back into the Southeastern United States. Even though it does, we’ll still be on the warm side of the jet for today. However, the retreating ridge will allow the upper-level energy to ride back in along the jet stream and aid in our t-storm chances for today.
While a few showers from last evening are trying to hold on as the early morning hours unfold, we’ll see more scattered showers and a few possible t-storms develop as we get ready for the AM drive. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will continue across the area as lows start out in the middle 60s.
With the front working into central Kansas and closer to the area, that will allow mostly cloudy skies to continue along with our chances for scattered rain and t-storms across a good portion of the area. Despite that, temperatures will be in the lower 70s to start the afternoon out.
We’ll continue to hold on to chances for scattered rain and t-storms through the rest of the afternoon. Even with t-storm chances in the forecast, we aren’t expecting any to turn too strong or severe. With a south wind at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20 at times) and some dry time in between the rain chances, we’ll still have a warm day with highs pushing back into the middle to upper 70s.
After some scattered showers and t-storms to start this evening out, we’ll see the rain chances temporarily back down for a dry overnight. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, we’ll see lows drop back into the middle 60s across much of the area for Wednesday morning. Some of our northwestern areas could sneak back into the lower 60s before sunrise Wednesday morning.
With our frontal system still nearby and more upper-level energy interacting with highs in the lower 80s and moisture in place, we’ll have scattered t-storms possible for the afternoon. The t-storm chances for Wednesday could lead to a few strong t-storms. However, we aren’t expecting anything to turn severe.
Since the rain chances will be scattered, the rain amounts will vary mainly between a tenth and half an inch for most through Wednesday afternoon. However, anyone who sees the better chances for t-storms and pockets of moderate rainfall could see amounts go over an inch.
For those wondering if we’ll see any prolonged dry time for much of the area at all this week, Mother Nature seems to be ignoring those pleas. With an upper-level low passing to our north and sending lift and energy along the jet stream for Thursday, that will interact with our front and give us a pretty good shot for widespread rain and t-storms for Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. This is a setup that wants to bring a low severe threat our way that we’ll have to keep an eye on. At least we’ll stay warm with highs pushing close to the middle 80s under partly sunny skies.
With the front passing through on Friday, we’ll see temperatures take a little bit of a dip as the Memorial Day Weekend begins. We’ll keep an eye on some scattered showers during the day as highs top out in the middle 70s. However, another system and another wave will try to bring some scattered t-storms back in late Friday night and into Saturday. This will keep highs for Saturday in the lower to middle 70s. Regarding the t-storm chances for late Friday night and Saturday, the severe threat looks very low at this time. It’s still something we’ll watch throughout the week.
While Sunday looks like a very low severe threat with our scattered t-storm chances, we’ll see a low severe threat wanting to return on Memorial Day as another upper-level low works into the Rockies with another approaching cold front from the west. Even with these rain chances in the forecast, we’ll keep warm for Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 70s.
To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Tuesday!
May 31st-June 5th: We’ll stay warm for Tuesday with t-storm chances sticking around. Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.
June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat returns for Saturday.
June 13th-19th: A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.